London & South East Regional Discussion

[Whereisthesnow?]

I hate the whole "don't travel unless necessary" what counts as necessary? If I run out of hot chocolate and need to go into Tesco before it shuts, would that could as necessary? What if I run out of bread?

If you run out of red wine - that's a RED ALERT warning and a VERY necessary journey.

[Jayces]

Slight correction West on the 12z GFS for the -8 uppers at 7 am tomorrow which is good, it's the next 2 frames that will tell the story though.

Nope not gonna play ball this run :-(

[Lampostwatcher]

Listen to yourself fella please. So 'because a few years back' the snow depths of what ever time and space plan you want to go back didn't quite compute and deliver the exact amount in the exact location at the exact time you wanted it........we should all ignore whats actually happening ( or about to happen ) above our heads right now right ?

Just so we can be clear on this.

Sorry Mods. Had a lovely day out taking photos of actual weather stuff and I somehow knew the same old broken records would crop up throughought the day and try and spoil it.

Well I'll try and post my photos later.. Ive had a .....hic.....winter warmer

the weather warning came out 6 hours before the event totally wrong

[beng]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=30&mode=2

Let's hope this is close to the mark.

[Mark wheeler]

My hopes have gone up a tad again seeing the last bbc forecast being a bit better. Could have kissed jay wynne when he talked about Monday night lol

[Jo S]

just dug out my snow boots,sorry guys probably put the mockers on it now

[WillinGlossop]

Looks a lot less marginal on 12z..... -7c 850s holding on in kent precip over kent should be all snow!

[IDO]

Upgrade for south/SE on GFS 12z for Tuesday morning:

[nanu]

Slight correction West on the 12z GFS for the -8 uppers at 7 am tomorrow which is good, it's the next 2 frames that will tell the story though.

Nope not gonna play ball this run :-(

what?? i dont get that -8 uppers which is a tad west which is good, then nope not gonna play ball???

[Jezzer]

looks a bit of a damp squid

* think that should be squib

[abovefreezing]

what?? i dont get that -8 uppers which is a tad west which is good, then nope not gonna play ball???

Surface temps look like being a tad too high, so snow will be melting as it settles. To counter the melt rate, you would need continuous persistent heavy snowfall, and that does not appear to be in any of the model output right now.

Basically, it will melt quicker than it might fall -- so more of an inconvenience, rather than a school-shutter (ie not bad enough to disrupt) but bad enough to make it a PITA to go out in!

Edited January 13, 2013 by abovefreezing

[Jayces]

Atlantic fighting hard against the cold and slowly pushing East each run, it's only 50-100 miles each time but in the grand scheme of things makes a difference for us.

Hopefully the GFS is underestimating it.

We will get snow at some point this week, i'm sure of it ;-)

[Met4Cast]

Looks a lot less marginal on 12z..... -7c 850s holding on in kent precip over kent should be all snow!

Dew points of +3 and +4 definitely wouldn't be conductive to snow

[SMU]

HUm...

12z not bad....- again we are down to t24 now-( just awaiting the high res to update & the NAE)

but on the larger GFS with course gridpoints there are no rain pixels even west of london- theres also a good wrap around towards midnight...

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/13/basis12/nweu/prty/13011418_1312.gif NAE slightly better-

so far not bad-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011312/gfsnh-0-60.png?12

^^ much better aligned block at 60

S

[Jayces]

what?? i dont get that -8 uppers which is a tad west which is good, then nope not gonna play ball???

Sorry the second line was referring to the next 2 frames but I replied so quickly it put it in my original post.

Basically the colder -8 air on the GFS was a little further West at 7 am on monday but further east at 1 and 7 pm.

But it's in the future so only time will tell.

[abovefreezing]

Surface temps and dps look like being a tad too high, so snow will be melting as it settles. To counter the melt rate, you would need continuous persistent heavy snowfall, and that does not appear to be in any of the model output right now.

Basically, it will melt quicker than it might fall -- so more of an inconvenience, rather than a school-shutter (ie not bad enough to disrupt) but bad enough to make it a PITA to go out in!

So though we may have white stuff from the sky, I will be going for an event that isn't too severe or remarkable.

Its simply not progged to be cold enough, which I find surprising after all the hype we've had on the model thread for a week, but there it is:

'slushy marginal' may be the best you can hope for...

[Jezzer]

Latest tweet from:

Chris Fawkes â€@_chrisfawkes

Snow reported in northwest England. Fancy central and eastern parts may get pretty snowy. Check BBC news for latest forecast detail.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...es-2m-hd/3h.htm

HD dewpoints-

follow them from T0 to T30-

only 3 hours over +1 for London & thats at T27-

t24 is 1c T 30 is 0c...

so london to the SW is still the line-

remember evaporational cooling & snowcover can mute the dewpoints if they are at 1c

S

Edited January 13, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Reefseeker]

The signs on the M25 between j10 A3 and j13 Staines are proclaiming, very knowledgeably, 'Snow Forecast Today'. Hmmmm... Car temperature thing showed 3 degrees, odd drops of light rain, and we got well and truly gritted coming up the A3 at Esher. However, the clouds have that fluffy look and the air has got that slight 'feel' of snow, so I live in hope. And best of all, the dogs at Old Windsor very much enjoyed the cuddles on offer from me and my son.

[abovefreezing]

Whos gonna mention the 'orange sky' first tonight...?

Most light pollution is orange, lol

[Met4Cast]

http://www.meteociel...es-2m-hd/3h.htm

HD dewpoints-

follow them from T0 to T30-

only 3 hours over +1 for London & thats at T27-

t24 is 1c T 30 is 0c...

so london to the SW is still the line-

remember evaporational cooling & snowcover can mute the dewpoints if they are at 1c

S

But they're +2 and +3 for much of the region

London looks like it might just about keep the snow, but much of the South-East still looks like sleet or rain to me?

[abovefreezing]

But they're +2 and +3 for much of the region

London looks like it might just about keep the snow, but much of the South-East still looks like sleet or rain to me?

See my recent posts. I agree. Slushy at best.

It never seems to be a given, does it (ie absolutely certain to be cold enough!)

?

[Jezzer]

and a tweet from Ian just fyi

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Latest MOGREPS modelling for 2100hrs this eve suggests circa 60% chance snow falling Bristol & environs; 99% Mendips/Cotswolds

[chelsea01]

gritters out in snodland, darl clouds over top me me is this the start of the first low from nw ?

[coldtoes]

Ok, I have a question. My dew point (on my first ever weather station, and still trying to work it all out) is 0.9 and the temp is slowly sinking (now showing 2.. The weather sign is cloud/sun (think my weather station has had more wine than me) and i was wondering how's this is for snow? Thanks in advance :-)