Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[dancing daisy]

Judging by the latest radar imagery, the latest front nudging into some parts of Wales and the Northwest is progressively turning to SNOW as it heads slowly inland. The timing of this precipitation band looks very good for our region with quite high expectations of a faire few of us getting some action by evening time onwards.

And then the sun will come out and we will be basking in double figure temps.

I don't trust the weather anymore, it keeps letting me down and my ex knows all about the perils of letting me down. ha ha ha

I am giving up on weather for a few hours and doing something productive. Have fun chart/weather watching all.

[Snow shut work]

0.8c still in Gloucester. Frost still on the grass and the frost scraped off my windscreen at 0930 still on there. Mmmm could be intersting in 7 hrs time if the precip band still has some ooomph in it.

[dec10snow]

Well that countryfile forecast has given me some hope snow over me for a couple hours tonight! let's hope it comes to fruition!

Edited January 13, 2013 by dec10snow

[Lynxus]

0.8c still in Gloucester. Frost still on the grass and the frost scraped off my windscreen at 0930 still on there. Mmmm could be intersting in 7 hrs time if the precip band still has some ooomph in it.

Nowcasting it is.

Annoyingly : This chart worries me.

[Iceberg]

Nae having a nightmare IMHO with today's weather and is way out.

Firstly the precip is a lot heavier, particularly over Ireland which is where our first band is coming from.

Secondly dps across western Scotland are higher than nae is forecasting, indicating a deeper warm sector.

Thirdly the speed of the system is maybe as much as 2-3 hrs ahead of schedule from den the 06z forecast.

All in all lots of changes but too many to determine whether they will be good or bad for us....

[karlos1983]

Nowcasting it is.

Annoyingly : This chart worries me.

That seems to be what the Beeb are running with as well.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this turns out to be a little more widespread.

[Snow shut work]

How horrendous. Where did you pluck that evil eroneous chart from?

It literally is going to be ad hoc forecasting as anything can happen and even past forecasts have been miles out.

[Mapantz]

Nowcasting it is.

Annoyingly : This chart worries me.

Not surprising really, dew points really do shoot up fast according to the GFS.

It'll end up as a wet mix in the south east with rain behind that too.

[Beast of Plympton]

Now casting. Verry sunny, bit of cloud. Still only 0.7c which could make things intresting later.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Bristawl Si]

How horrendous. Where did you pluck that evil eroneous chart from?

It literally is going to be ad hoc forecasting as anything can happen and even past forecasts have been miles out.

This scenario has really been on the cards for the last 24 hours to be fair - no surprise.

[Snow shut work]

I know, I just didn't want to see it again. Just like when sky sports show endless repeats of a goal against your club.

[Nights King]

Nae having a nightmare IMHO with today's weather and is way out.

Firstly the precip is a lot heavier, particularly over Ireland which is where our first band is coming from.

Secondly dps across western Scotland are higher than nae is forecasting, indicating a deeper warm sector.

Thirdly the speed of the system is maybe as much as 2-3 hrs ahead of schedule from den the 06z forecast.

All in all lots of changes but too many to determine whether they will be good or bad for us....

Is the warmer atlantic air ahead of schedule though or does this mean more snow before rain?

[karlos1983]

Is the warmer atlantic air ahead of schedule though or does this mean more snow before rain?

I think your Emoticon sums it up pretty well to be honest

[katemart]

No snow progged for me for the next 36 hours, according to the BBC Won't stop me lamppost watching though! I'll also be keeping my eyes peeled for a Thames streamer, which has given us snow in soton before.

Beautiful day, though. 2.5C, DP -3.8C. Gentle NNW breeze. Thin, high cloud slipping in from the West.

[dec10snow]

Currently around 3/4C here, sunny, with high cloud

[Nights King]

We have lost our first possible ice day here 0.5c never mind it should drop back below in 2 hours time ready for my 1cm

[Sungirl]

We have 3.1c here, 35% solar (alledgedly!) and white skies... I haven't been on here since the last cold snap so i've no idea what your thoughts are for snow in our region - I'm off to catch up on the last few pages of posts!

We had some snow yesterday but it was mostly sleet and sleety rain. Was still nice to see though.

[Kiwi]

Is the warmer atlantic air ahead of schedule though or does this mean more snow before rain?

GFS forecast dewpoint for Liverpool was -1c at 12z while the actual recorded at Liverpool airport was 0c at 12z.

My guess is that everything is an hour or two ahead of schedule.

Coversely the dewpoint and ground temps in Belfast are actually a couple of degrres lower than forecast. Perhaps the warm sector isn't quite as warm as predicted thus increasing the snow risk for some in our region.

[katemart]

I'd agree with this, Kiwi. Snowing currently in Kent as far West as Tunbridge Wells - although it might not be the best type of snow (light and granular) it seems to me that some parts of the country are likely to be pleasantly surprised. And that bodes well for us!

[That ECM]

I'd agree with this, Kiwi. Snowing currently in Kent as far West as Tunbridge Wells - although it might not be the best type of snow (light and granular) it seems to me that some parts of the country are likely to be pleasantly surprised. And that bodes well for us!

Tonight has improved and snow is due at about 3.00 am. Tomorrow event would need to upgrade dramatically to have snow here. Highly unlikely I feel but I am optimistic moving forward as I am sure the UKMO is the model with best handle on the longer term.

[westysweather]

Exeter seems right on the boundary, we usually don't do too bad, I have a little elevation at 100m so you never know..... Just in case we don't just make sure you all share some photos of yours lol

[kumquat]

We need the sun to go down a couple of hours before schedule too!

[SupaSnowy]

Them NAE charts don't look good at all, but as with in the past they ain't always right, I have had many surprises in the past. Them DP's do look a tad to high. But it does look like we will get a little snow before hand. As always with it being so close, will it won't it, now casting is the way to go. Not long to wait now.

Plus we got the 12z coming out soon see what else next week brings.

If sunnysouthcoast gets snow them im sure west of that will, Portsmouth is one hard place for snow to fall. I live in Fareham and its a little tad cooler then portsmouth. North Hampshire I'm sure will do better then us south people.

[Deep Channel low]

Latest countyfile weekly forecast, hope for us in the SW later on in the week, chance of a front moving in against the cold on friday.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Deep Channel low

[gottolovethisweather]

And then the sun will come out and we will be basking in double figure temps.

I don't trust the weather anymore, it keeps letting me down and my ex knows all about the perils of letting me down. ha ha ha

I am giving up on weather for a few hours and doing something productive. Have fun chart/weather watching all.

Well, learn to trust the knowledgeable few in here, amongst them you can include the wise old man posting this, should you wish.

I can't promise you snow but I can give you hope.

Location, location, location playing a part as ever in this week's events as ever.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather