Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[SupaSnowy]

Yeah I keep looking at the NAE, it seems we might get a bit of both, bit of snow and bit of rain, I'm hoping more snow then rain as the rest of the week looks cold and it's always nice keeping the snow on the ground for as long as we can.

If we get snow then rain then there's not much chance. I'm hoping its one of them days where we get lucky. I'm sure it will keep moving the snow line until its T-0 and we find out first hand what's falling out the sky.

[dec10snow]

Sunny little so and so aren't you! Night night X

It's only weather isn't it. I don't know if I am more irritated by the weather or the fact that I wasted a day of my life waiting for something to happen which hasn't.

Bring on tomorrow that's what I say!

Yeah, good to see you being the optimist GTLTW!

Did you not see any sleet etc either daisy?

[kumquat]

Looks like the near term for snow is downgrading but I'm very optimistic we are entering a long term cold period where we will all get our chances - some out of nowhere like GTLTW suggests - get the cold in place and then look out for the snow. Some very cold days and nights ahead this week. SSW effects still kicking in and other warming events predicted (Thanks for the post Snowmania!). I've got to say things are sill looking up despite the slight knockbacks in the near short-term. Plus the Weston ciders are kicking in nicely!

Edit: oh, and still time for some of the white stuff out of the nearer term, too. Not writing that off just yet!

Edited January 12, 2013 by kumquat

[dancing daisy]

Yeah, good to see you being the optimist GTLTW!

Did you not see any sleet etc either daisy?

Nope, some nasty grey skies and lots of rain. A pretty miserable day really. Did you?

[dec10snow]

Nope, some nasty grey skies and lots of rain. A pretty miserable day really. Did you?

Yeah, a sleety mix at best, but still, could be worse!

[gottolovethisweather]

Sunny little so and so aren't you! Night night X

It's only weather isn't it. I don't know if I am more irritated by the weather or the fact that I wasted a day of my life waiting for something to happen which hasn't.

Bring on tomorrow that's what I say!

I am Mr sunshine. What I don't understand though, is that most of those knowledgeable chaps I follow in here were saying that today's event had been downgraded and this was approximately 24 hours too. Were you ignoring them or simply hoping above all hope?

Anyway, onwards we go and I might finally get to some decent sunny spells in between the frosty nights and snowier spells coming our way soon.

Its game on Daisy, as long as you remain game.

There is absoloutely nothing to be negative about IMHO. Whilst I can't provide everyone with snow, this prolonged cold spell will bring some to a whole lot of us. This has the power in it, to be something rather special.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[dancing daisy]

Always game me!

Nah I chose to ignore them, I only see what I want to see until I need to admit defeat.

Night night all X

[gottolovethisweather]

Yeah, good to see you being the optimist GTLTW!

Did you not see any sleet etc either daisy?

I sees things as I sees things. However, I can't promise the unpromisable.

There seems to be simply too much jumping on one run by certain members, but then again the MOD thread is all about that malarkey and I suppose that is where most folk are getting their analysis. Me, I stick to a select few folk's posts in there but I NEVER allow myself to forget the general trend over time. You simply must compare one days runs against another, the best for this being the runs with added balloon data, i.e. the 12z as examples.

Anyway, fergieweather will return before long I guess, either to shoot my analysis down in flames or to perk you lot up.

Always game me!

Nah I chose to ignore them, I only see what I want to see until I need to admit defeat.

Night night all X

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[dec10snow]

I sees things as I sees things. However, I can't promise the unpromisable.

There is simply too much jumping on one run, but then again the MOD thread is all about that malarkey and I suppose that is where most folk are getting their analysis. Me, I stick to a few folk's posts in ther but I NEVER forget the general trend over time, when you simply must compare one days runs against another, the best for this being the runs with added balloon data, i.e. the 12z.

Anyway, fergieweather will return before long I guess, either to shoot my analysis down in flames or to perk you lot up.

Yeah, I think there is too much jumping at one run! I suppose it's hard not to, as it is the latest data being used! Anyway, as you say, hopefully fergieweather will be in here soon to give us his latest views always very helpful isn't he?

[SupaSnowy]

Well I feel like its cold enough to snow in my flat right now, I won't be staying up to check the 00z GFS ECM UKMO, but I'm going to set my alarm for 6am haha. Next week is looking very interesting.

Even if Monday don't go well (i think we will go a little something) we have plenty more chances later in the week if the charts keep upgrading.

Never had my fix of thunderstorms last year, so I want my fix of snow :-)

[khodds]

Just got back in from a meal on Mendip, lovely and white earliern melted a bit since. Bit gutted there have been downgrades since. But nevermind. Will have to make do with ice days the post re. SSW gives me hope.

Good night all. I will have a hangover in the morning so pls be nice and quiet if our massive upgrade occurs overnight

[gottolovethisweather]

Yeah, I think there is too much jumping at one run! I suppose it's hard not to, as it is the latest data being used! Anyway, as you say, hopefully fergieweather will be in here soon to give us his latest views always very helpful isn't he?

Absolutely.

[jethro]

My view is Ian is quiet because changes are afoot, well that's what I'm hoping

I reckon it's his day job, this being the weekend, he's out doing stuff that we all do; I enjoy my job but I wouldn't do it for nowt on my days off.

[TwisterGirl81]

I've given up on seeing any significant snow this winter, we may see a passing snow shower...it's just not cold enough in Devon...hopefully we'll have a great summer though...Our only hope is the SSW

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well the rain seems to have finally stopped here but still not that cold currently it's 4.1C with a dp of 3.9C

[Nights King]

Just got back in from a meal on Mendip, lovely and white earliern melted a bit since. Bit gutted there have been downgrades since. But nevermind. Will have to make do with ice days the post re. SSW gives me hope.

Good night all. I will have a hangover in the morning so pls be nice and quiet if our massive upgrade occurs overnight

Did you eat in the oakhill inn?

[fergieweather]

Watch for forecast detail weds night into Thurs. UK4 shows substantial inland penetration of banded snow shower developments in keen NE flow extending right across into likes of Glos, Wiltshire, B&NES, etc with accumulation expected based on latest modelling. Meanwhile MOGREPS-15 gives 20% chance more organised snow into SW Thurs. So nothing yet tied down re later in week. Tomorrow snow potential effectively anywhere from Bristol Channel eastwards by 21z onwards; 1-2cm broadly but southernmost extent of snow still uncertain.

[Nights King]

Watch for forecast detail weds night into Thurs. UK4 shows substantial inland penetration of banded snow shower developments in keen NE flow extending right across into likes of Glos, Wiltshire, B&NES, etc with accumulation expected based on latest modelling. Meanwhile MOGREPS-15 gives 20% chance more organised snow into SW Thurs. So nothing yet tied down re later in week. Tomorrow snow potential effectively anywhere from Bristol Channel eastwards by 21z onwards; 1-2cm broadly but southernmost extent of snow still uncertain.

Thanks ian, we had a nice dusting on mendip of roughly the amount you originaly quoted a day or so ago.. 2cm but most of it has melted in a slow thaw since.

[fergieweather]

Can't show you the high res output on snow accumulations etc for commercial reasons but can offer you modified GM frame 00z Thurs as a taster:

[Panayiotis]

Can't show you the high res output on snow accumulations etc for commercial reasons but can offer you modified GM frame 00z Thurs as a taster:

Ah yes, does the band move west later, or is that the furthest it goes?

[fergieweather]

Also, courtesy of my agreement with lovely folks at Exeter, can share 2 key WBFL/PPN type frames for tomorrow late evening. Hopefully this helps as a steer re our forecast thinking.

[Nights King]

Also, courtesy of my agreement with lovely folks at Exeter, can share 2 key WBFL/PPN type frames for tomorrow late evening. Hopefully this helps as a steer re our forecast thinking.

What do the blue dots indicate exactly? Could you give us a brief explanation on detail?

Looks light and patchy for west country to the untrained eye...

Edited January 13, 2013 by mullender83

[fergieweather]

What do the blue dots indicate exactly? Could you give us a brief explanation on detail?

Blue: snow signal

Green: rain

In essence.... and blue background is sub-200m WBFL

And mostly light, yes.

[lfcdude]

Also, courtesy of my agreement with lovely folks at Exeter, can share 2 key WBFL/PPN type frames for tomorrow late evening. Hopefully this helps as a steer re our forecast thinking.

That looks good, Do you think eastern areas of the southwest.. I,e Wiltshire... Could possibly keep it all snow Monday our is it pretty certain it will turn to rain

[Nights King]

Blue: snow signal

Green: rain

In essence.... and blue background is sub-200m WBFL

And mostly light, yes.

So going by that roughly I would say dorset has better chance of a brief covering sunday night...