Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[November13]

Where would any snow round here come from because eveything I've looked at this afternoon (and I'm no expert) suggests otherwise.

I suspect you are right the snow/rain band has not started to creep back inland. It might need a keen wind as well as the pressure to force it back in. At the moment the wind is not particularly strong. The only excitement this evening will be a hard frost.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Where would any snow round here come from because eveything I've looked at this afternoon (and I'm no expert) suggests otherwise.

That front sitting out to the east is going to messily spread southwestwards overnight, probably weakening a bit but bringing in an easterly flow behind it. It's going to be tough to track on the radar but generally the precipitation will start to transfer from the northeast into more central areas as the night goes on.

Also, seems to be another shower over the Pentlands, which looks mostly like snow from here.

[Buriedundersnow]

not looking to dissimilar

yeah then we end up here with a huge LP in the atlantic

[edo]

yeah and the GFS has something about winding that LP right up in the atlantic

flook it certainly has wound it up

[Buriedundersnow]

still showing a snowfest though but i still prefer UKMO and ECM of prolonged cold chances

[edo]

right reached limit of my abilities..... what happens next lol

battleground?

[November13]

Yep I can see the Pentlands from my office and it is snowing! At the moment the Radar has the showers going from North West to South East. It will need a real swing to get it round to North East to to South East.

[Buriedundersnow]

well i definatly dont want the GFS over the UKMO/ECM not looking good after saturday on the GFS

just cant see the block or the cold pool over europe and fringing into us being blown away as fast as the GFS wants to would expect it to put up a better fight than that

Edited January 14, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[NorthernRab]

right reached limit of my abilities..... what happens next lol

battleground?

There seems to be some bizarre form of retrogression taking place while the fragment of the polar vortex (the "Big low pressure" in the Atlantic) seems to sort of undercut. Quite messy looking, but could be an epic FI.

[over_the_rainbow]

Well here we are again folks, another week of model mayhem! Lost what little snowcover we had here overnight as a band of rain pushed through. I thought yesterday whilst looking at some charts that the low destined for the weekend looked very interesting but, as LS pointed out yesterday also, everything that could go wrong for us did go wrong. With this in mind, and the models still not all singing from the same hymn sheet, I am afraid I will still be viewing subsequent runs with a great deal of uncertainty. However, you would think that something has got to give soon, one way or another.

I'm with you Blitzen! Saturday still looking interesting on the models, but between now and then is a heck of a lot of weather and by the time it gets here it will no doubt be downgraded or shifted 100 miles west. Without doubt I'm mentally stabler sticking with radar and windae!

[November13]

flook it certainly has wound it up

Could be Moses holding back the sea with that Atlantic spinning top. The Scandi High will need to do some bulking up!

[edo]

There seems to be some bizarre form of retrogression taking place while the fragment of the polar vortex (the "Big low pressure" in the Atlantic) seems to sort of undercut. Quite messy looking, but could be an epic FI.

cheers Rab

fascinating.... first time followed a run properly and felt understanding it to a degree and then boom.... what the fleck is happening here i Thought

That ties in with the uppers chart i posted last night questioning the low uppers in the atlantic which Lorenzo explained as the vortex going on a fishing trip

[Buriedundersnow]

96hr UKMO

UKMO 120h

both much better than the GFS lets wait to see if the ECM still follows the UKMO later when its 12z comes out

[Buriedundersnow]

UKMO 144h looking good aswell

now thats a 3 day snowfest

Edited January 14, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[JoeShmoe]

UKMO 144h looking good aswell

now thats a 3 day snowfest

That would be epic up here, big TOORP for the southerners though,

[doctormog]

The snow is chucking it down here. Massive heavy wet snowflakes. Depth is 4cm and increasing. That "rain band" is currently stuck over us - how long for is the question.

[applemint]

Yep I can see the Pentlands from my office and it is snowing!

Looking good on the Pentlands webcam

Edited January 14, 2013 by applemint

[Northernlights]

A few photos of showers gathering across the Firth to the North about an hour ago . New camera so trying to work out how to resize with this one.

Light snow has just started falling and settling currently 1c.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Northernlights

[martinshaw12003]

clear skies in Dundee again this eve, do you think the snow will come this way?

[LomondSnowstorm]

The key thing about the 12Zs is that they maintain significant heights to the north, so the only place the lows can go is under the block. If the models are overplaying the jet across the Atlantic, which I think is quite a reasonable possibility, we could then be looking at an intensification of the cold rather than an attempted breakdown.

[Buriedundersnow]

JUST IN!! BBC weather going for UKMO, brilliant stuff

was just posted in the model thread

• 
  

[gsteruk]

well the temps have certainly taken a dive in cumbernauld - at work so no idea what they are, but feels like we've hit zero finally!

[LomondSnowstorm]

clear skies in Dundee again this eve, do you think the snow will come this way?

It's almost there already going by the radar. NMM suggests it should arrive by 9pm but it looks to be underplaying both how far west the front is to the north and also how much precipitation there actually is even at this stage. Basically we see the showers in the northwest heading southwards towards Glasgow and Galloway through the night, the front gradually sinking southwestwards with further reinforcements in behind by the early hours. My prognosis would be that lying snow is possible pretty much anywhere overnight, with the risk generally transferring from the north to the south as the night progresses and eventually concentrating on the east.

[M1245]

JUST IN!! BBC weather going for UKMO, brilliant stuff

was just posted in the model thread

• 
  

What does this mean?

[Snooz]

clear skies in Dundee again this eve, do you think the snow will come this way?

watch raintoday.co.uk.. the band to the east has already edged a bit closer to you.. Good Luck!