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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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Beasterly Apprentice

Beasterly

Posted
  • Location: Kidlington, Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine & Snow
  • Location: Kidlington, Oxfordshire
Posted

Just want to say - a very nice friendly forum here !

Certainly lots of battleground uncertainty (particularly Monday onwards) but if we knew exactly when and where it was going to snow.. heck - we'd have nothing to talk about ! rofl.gif

Tomorrow may surprise for some but whatever happens its gonna be a roller coaster for quite a while !

We wouldn't want it any other way eh ? nea.gif

Can someone provide a link to Ian Ferguson's latest forecast and latest fax chart ?

Cheers !

John in Gloucester (Quedgeley)

Latest Forecast:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

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SilverWolf Community Regular

SilverWolf

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Sounds like an AA meeting might be in order after the coming week all this talk of drinking.... I'll raise a glass to that though, we'll do it here, with a SA meeting in March. just popped out to supermarket, scrapped ice of windscreen, on way back car thermometer said 5c and it was raining. Looking forward to a dusting in Stroud Glos, tomorrow eve, and my mate with his 4x4 having to bring me food by Wednesday. And then a ramp around on Minchinhampton Common.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

Just to let you know that if this FAX chart verifies;

post-12721-0-08653700-1357933082_thumb.j

Areas in red would receive snowfall and areas in yellow would get a wintry mix of rain, sleet & wet snow depending on elevation, local nuances etc.

post-12721-0-58797200-1357933146_thumb.j

Tough TEITS for Jay in Cardiff then LOL rofl.gif

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

FAX chart for Monday;

post-12721-0-48303500-1357931719_thumb.j

Mild sector removed, 528DAM over Devon. Get in!

Look at the fax folks , we see the curl on the back edge of the front over northwest , that's what the gfs picks up on when it brings another spell of snow across the country several hours later , I believe these tails can pack a real punch and have a nasty sting in there tail .

I remember jan 2010 the south hAd one of these develop and it dropped 40cm plus over parts of glouc and wilts.

Really excited now , I also think tomorrow looks to have been slightly upgraded now in comparison to this morning.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Latest NAE run? 9 o'clock this eve is it?

Yup

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

Latest NAE run? 9 o'clock this eve is it?

Possibly starts rolling out a bit earlier than that. 12z was rolling at around 14:00.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

Look at the fax folks , we see the curl on the back edge of the front over northwest , that's what the gfs picks up on when it brings another spell of snow across the country several hours later , I believe these tails can pack a real punch and have a nasty sting in there tail .

I remember jan 2010 the south hAd one of these develop and it dropped 40cm plus over parts of glouc and wilts.

Really excited now , I also think tomorrow looks to have been slightly upgraded now in comparison to this morning.

I do wish the MO would put the Greenwich Meridian top central of those fax charts, though. Gives me a crook neck having to scrutinise those things!

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

If things pan out according to past experiences, we should see further shifts west for another 36 hrs, then 12 hrs of moving back east a bit, then a bit of wobbling.

probably taking the warm sector edge over devon.

Worth saying and the folks in the se wont like this. The heaviest precip will be roughly 30-80 miles from the warm sector edge, most of the precip might well end up southampton westwards with only a band of 5-10cm for the se.

Forgot to add should see somerset, wilts and north dorset added to the weather warning if things stay as they are in the morning.

Edited by Iceberg
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Beasterly Apprentice

Beasterly

Posted
  • Location: Kidlington, Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine & Snow
  • Location: Kidlington, Oxfordshire
Posted

Anyone watching BBC News? They are talking about correlation between Stratosphere warming and cold spells!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Ok, Ive been away 3 hours..

Has it all changed and everyone started crying yet? I haven't looked at the models since..

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latitude Newbie

latitude

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
Posted

and ignore me, I'm only a MOD without any knowledge. rofl.gif

I agree with the rest and don't expect any favours. blum.gif

HAHAHA gottolovethisweather

Just to let you know that if this FAX chart verifies;

post-12721-0-08653700-1357933082_thumb.j

Areas in red would receive snowfall and areas in yellow would get a wintry mix of rain, sleet & wet snow depending on elevation, local nuances etc.

post-12721-0-58797200-1357933146_thumb.j

You have just upset 75% of our region!

Back to outlook. Slowly but surely more western areas are getting the colder uppers with the warmer sectors disappearing, a nice trend. Looking for a nice sunny drying day on Sunday with a cold night, before any PPN enters my region. Get the cold in place first, gives a better chance of settling snow. Lets hope the UKMETO model is spot on.

Will say it again, feel sorry for Cornwall and Devon. My back yard is very borderline, but has upgraded this afternoon.

I hope my post is ok gottolovethisweather I know you run this thread and you are the voice of reason, and everything you say is totally spot on and true.

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cerneman Explorer

cerneman

Posted
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but foggy damp weather
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
Posted (edited)

BBC news channel just had section on SSW and what could happen, Susan Powell admitting she no expert but explained situation, She then went on to do regular forecast, She did also say cold spell could last couple weeks. the conversation was with studio presenters before her regular forecast at 8pm

Edited by cerneman
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jtay Veteran

jtay

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
Posted (edited)

Where do they class the border of far west?

Pretty much the dashed line on this fax chart http://t.co/lUIw7tLS , although it's tricky to make it out.

or you could take note of what the professional says above instead. ha.

Edited by jtay
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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Susan Powell said rain for here and had rain on graphic for us on Monday, hope she is wrong. Somerset.

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Erbyskerby Rookie

Erbyskerby

Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
Posted

Hmmm Cornwall not getting much action. I think the last time I had snow (i live by the sea near Padstow) it came from a dangler (pembrokeshire dangler??). Not sure what sets those up though? Are they rare?

So mild here - my marigolds are still in flower from the summer!

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Why was Ian referring to Bristol as far west, is this a cut off point for any snow , apologies as haven't seen earlier posts.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

Who knows? Maybe you'd get lucky in this kind of flow?

ECM1-96.GIF?11-0

This is the kind of chart that gave snow to Bodmin in 2010 from a "dangler"

gfs-2010112512-0-6.png?12

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