Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Dave Kightley]

Indeed it does, whereas the ECM is better at handling blocks to our East and NE.

Just like when the US models are the first when they sniff Zonal! default mode.. Just go through the years of GFS love for it.. ECM isn't handling it right. I hope not!

[MisfitDog3]

the Met office outlook is nothing to be concerned about. For one, it's the end of the period so halfway FI and secondly the word 'may' is pretty prominent...much more interesting is that they are going for initial cold and we all know how difficult snowfall is to forecast so they are hardly going to make any reference to an 'event' or 'events' at this stage.....

No sweat.

[Shunter]

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2013:

Current indications are for mainly dry, settled and cold conditions in most places on Sunday and Monday, with overnight frosts and perhaps some freezing fog patches, which could linger through the day in places. There may be showers in the east, turning increasingly wintry, with snow possible over hills. The far north and northwest may be cloudier, with rain or snow possible here later. Through next week, it is most likely to remain cold with further wintry showers, especially in northern, central and eastern parts, but also a good deal of dry and sunny weather, with overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period more unsettled spells of weather may spread from the west at times, with outbreaks of rain and milder temperatures possible.

Updated: 1139 on Tue 8 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Well they have covered nigh on every meteorological permutation in that outlook and peppered it with "May's,perhaps & possibles". Surely would have been easier to say "aint got the foggiest"......lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

One can strongly suspect that there will be no model agreement anytime soon. We are looking at battleground Britain to rage as we go through January............at least we have a battleground outlook and could be a lot worse. The scenario I have penned a few times remains and MetO have not removed themselves from this idea, just highlighting the uncertainty. With RJS very strong on Feb, GP seemingly really keen on late Jan, strat threaders posting positive stuff...for me its good. It IMO suggests that AT THIS STAGE, the worst case is the battleground scenario may ding dong for some period but cold always nearby, sometimes over, sometimes shunted away...but always knocking on the door.

Sounds pretty good to me....

BFTP

[EML Network]

Also I think the first 2 words of the 6 to 15 day Outlook are probably the most important

"Current indications are for mainly dry, settled and cold conditions in most places on Sunday and Monday, with overnight frosts and perhaps some freezing fog patches.........

The ''Current Indications'' might very well change as time goes on.....as to what they change to is another story..or they may stay the same ...at least for a while.

+96 is about as far ahead as it worth looking right now , which takes us right up to where things will hopefully start to get very interesting. (hopefully)

[bluearmy]

Comments re certain models better in certaijn areas is generally anecdotal. ecm verifies best at day 6. thereafter, its all 'any model for itself' !! there are bias's in the models in areas such as 'cut off lows' in sw states re ecm but afaik, there are no general model bias' which are consequential for the uk. to suggest otherwise is, in my opinion, clutching at whichever straw you want to be right. please just accept the uncertainty and relax. in the end it will do whatever it will do. the background signals are positive for cold but how that manifests itself remains unknown.

[Dean E]

As far as the SSW is going, this is probably one of the most unusual and sudden spikes I've seen in a while and guess what (up to day 6 of this year) its still ongoing...

This would explain such a varying output in the mid to latter resolutions in the models, with FI not even seeing the current warming!

SM

Edited January 8, 2013 by SnowMania

[Hammer]

Bluearmy could you expand on your thoughts as to what you meant earlier re the SE may be rather different even if more mobile pattern. Is the suggestion here, the battleground "might" be around this area, with colder air always more likely based on current output in this area and hence risk of something more wintry?

And I ask this not IMBY, but I think it is why sometimes regional model threads could be very useful indeed.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Hammer

[PolarWarsaw]

Would I be the only one that's reached the point where a transitional, 1 day white event would be more than enough to make me happy?

Let's face it the stress of getting a dry, HP, long lasting cold spell has been too much this year.

Bring on battleground Britain.

[Southender]

As far as the SSW is going, this is probably one of the most unusual and sudden spikes I've seen in a while and guess what (up to day 6 of this year) its still ongoing...

This would explain such a varying output in the mid to latter resolutions in the models, with FI not even seeing the current warming!

SM

Indeed. An incredible warming event.

Current projections suggest it exceeding normal summer values, let alone winter.

Even more impressive when you consider the Strat has been much colder than average for a while now.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Shrimper

[latitude]

As far as im concerned the GFS shows the battleground events and ECM dosent. So I will be looking for move towards to GFS from the ECM later.

Its funny how we discuss the model output like todays 06z, only to be told by an expert to ignore it all it wont happen anyway, the METO arnt even considering the model!

Edited January 8, 2013 by latitude

[swfc]

hi can i just send my apols to members and mods for some of my comments made last night.stress and alcohol related comments were out of order.swfc.

[Kerwin]

Indeed. An incredible warming event.

Current projections suggest it exceeding normal summer values, let alone winter.

Even more impressive when you consider the Strat has been much colder than average for a while now.

Can I ask, what is causing this sudden warming?

[EGHH]

http://en.wikipedia....ormation_theory)

In short. The unpredictability of the unpredictable is unpredictable. Hope that helps!!

This presentation gives a contextual description of how Shannon Entropy is used:

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/forecast_products_user/Presentations2011/PDFs/Mylne_Parker.pdf

This also contains intersting information about how the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) types are presented (don't think I've seen much if any references to GWL on here before)

[Southender]

Can I ask, what is causing this sudden warming?

I think that is best left to the likes of Chio and GP to explain.

[Met4Cast]

The ECM London Ensembles

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Don't look bad to me at all. Whilst there are definitely some milder runs within the ensembles as you'd expect, the mean doesn't get close 5c throughout the entire run.

[Dean E]

Indeed. An incredible warming event.

Current projections suggest it exceeding normal summer values, let alone winter.

Even more impressive when you consider the Strat has been much colder than average for a while now.

Exactly, I'm really interested into how low this SSW event is going to take place. Current model output suggests we are about to reach maximum, but only time will tell...

Then there's the next predicted warming

SM

[Adam lufc]

Well I don't quite know what to say really. Sigh. The gfs has masses of potential and wouldn't it just be lovely if that came off!! I do though however worry and unlike yesterday eve my guy feeling is that of Ian's in respect of the ecm being most probable (typical ) I simply just can't see how the gfs can thrust heights northwards without a low or shortwave pushing through ala ecm!

It is however even more frustrating though because all background signals bar the NAO go more or less with Greenland heights which the ecm goes against. Why this is the case seemingly yet again! The other day the ecm showed two runs of very cold conditions n then rapidly changed back to mild. I bet the same opposite first happen here! If the ecm comes out right I think we will be stuck in this pattern for weeks. Regardless of the SSW.

Doesn't *first*

[Dean E]

Can I ask, what is causing this sudden warming?

Look in the 'Dynamics' Section half way down. It does a better job explaining it then I could!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

SM

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well I don't quite know what to say really. Sigh. The gfs has masses of potential and wouldn't it just be lovely if that came off!! I do though however worry and unlike yesterday eve my guy feeling is that of Ian's in respect of the ecm being most probable (typical ) I simply just can't see how the gfs can thrust heights northwards without a low or shortwave pushing through ala ecm!

It is however even more frustrating though because all background signals bar the NAO go more or less with Greenland heights which the ecm goes against. Why this is the case seemingly yet again! The other day the ecm showed two runs of very cold conditions n then rapidly changed back to mild. I bet the same opposite first happen here! If the ecm comes out right I think we will be stuck in this pattern for weeks. Regardless of the SSW.

Doesn't *first*

I think you answered your own question (see bold).

The ECM is chopping and changing and could quite easily put us back in the freezer a la GFS.

The 12z will be very interesting.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[Ian Brown]

Well I don't quite know what to say really. Sigh. The gfs has masses of potential and wouldn't it just be lovely if that came off!! I do though however worry and unlike yesterday eve my guy feeling is that of Ian's in respect of the ecm being most probable (typical ) I simply just can't see how the gfs can thrust heights northwards without a low or shortwave pushing through ala ecm!

It is however even more frustrating though because all background signals bar the NAO go more or less with Greenland heights which the ecm goes against. Why this is the case seemingly yet again! The other day the ecm showed two runs of very cold conditions n then rapidly changed back to mild. I bet the same opposite first happen here! If the ecm comes out right I think we will be stuck in this pattern for weeks. Regardless of the SSW.

Doesn't *first*

The METO response to the one of the NWP picking up on the change is often to be suspicious or wait another day or so, but I think this will collapse quickly in the next 24 hours.

And yes, it’s hard to get out of the sort of pattern predicted by the ECM because you would have a strongly positive NAO and Azores High with nowhere to go.

[TheBigFreeze]

are the times the models come out GMT?? e.g are the 18z 18:00 GMT? thanks in advance

[ITSY]

are the times the models come out GMT?? e.g are the 18z 18:00 GMT? thanks in advance

00z = 4am

06z=10am

12z=4pm

18z=10pm

(ECM 00Z is between 6-7am and then pm for 12Z)

Edited January 8, 2013 by ITSY

[latitude]

I think you answered your own question (see bold).

The ECM is chopping and changing and could quite easily put us back in the freezer a la GFS.

The 12z will be very interesting.

What I dont understand is the METO update was cold or very cold with snow last night from yesterdays 12z. Yesterdays evenings ECM wasnt what we wanted with regards to cold, and they didn't use that output as part of their update. So what were they using, the GFS? Now they wont even consider the GFS and are going with the ECM.

So it seems ignore any output from the GFS until it matches the ECM

Edited January 8, 2013 by latitude

[Rocheydub]

00z = 4am 3.30 - 4.45

06z=10am 9.30 - 10.45

12z=4pm 15.30 - 16.45

18z=10pm 21.30 - 22.45

(ECM 00Z is between 6-7am and then pm for 12Z)

Fixed that for you