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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards


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#861 cheeky_monkey

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:07

Yes I know and the poster was referring to Monday I thought with regards to the LP sinking SE.

Shame the ECM doesn't go any further because it would get even colder from the NE!

the poster has experience of living in south west with its own micro climate of being surrounded by warm water s on three sides...very often cold snowy set ups here end as rain/sleet where other places would get snow.
AIM HIGH YOU CAN REACH THE SKY...AIM LOW YOU HAVE NO WHERE ELSE TO GO

#862 Cloud 10

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:07

A stonking end to a stonking run from the ECM this evening.

From zero to hero!

ECH1-240.gif



That is a HUGE about-turn compared to yesterday's 12z run

today..ECH1-144.gif yesterday..ECH1-168.gif

Winter 2013/14 Dec-Feb

Frosts 26

Days snow fell 9

 

 


#863 Paul T

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:07

I have never seen such a difference @ 168hrs on the ECM! ABSOLUTELY NUTS!

The ECM @ 00z:

Posted Image

Compared to 12z:

Posted Image



#864 Pomeroysnow

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:08

I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itPosted Image

#865 chionomaniac

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:08

Great to see some consistency between the models. Remember the Cohen climatology? Well the Greenland heights fit right in with that and also a certain Mr Rampling's thoughts and the strat position and the MJO forecasts. When we bang on about strat warmings it is about these synoptics that they can create (I know that they haven't verified yet but we are headed in the right direction).

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

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#866 mike Meehan

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:08

Checking over the other forecast sites fo my area of Watford, the 'weatheroutlook' is the only one to have snow for Saturday evening - suspect we have a forecaster's nightmare in the offing.
I was standing by a lamp post at the corner of the street,
in case a little snow flake passes by,
oh me, oh my,
in case a little snow flake passes by

#867 Slowpoke

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:09

I'm excited for everyone, but it seems myself in Blackpool will be stuck with frost and ice - as is the case with this set-up. I hope we can get a raging Northerly out of this a la Novemeber/December 2010, whereby we had an intense NE/E for a while, which destroyed the East of the UK and Ireland, followed by that unforgettable Northerly which left much of the UK completely white!
Location: Blackpool (50m)

#868 Lynxus

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:09

Omg, Just seen the charts, Looks like we may get up to 50 ostriches of snow!

.. On a more serious note.
I'm really happy that the GFS is showing what it is. I've said it before and I will say again.
I always felt that the GFS is very westerly driven. So for it to show a good chance of easterly control, then it must have some strong data showing this.

Fingers crossed yall

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#869 ITSY

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:09

Don't be totally surprised if this agreement disappears over the next 12hours - that seems to be what the models love to do at the moment.

However, I would love (not like, LOVE) to be proved wrong and if indeed I am (and we have an improved set of ECM and GFS ens tonight and tomorrow) then I would justifiably start to get a TAD excited. But its TOO early for the level-headed out there. TOO EARLY YET.
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#870 snowice

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:09

Can't help but urge caution in terms of expectation! It seems to me that every few runs ppl are going from utter despair to unapologetic jubilance. Cold would very much need to become firmly entrenched before sustained or regular snow events could be considered. I tend to follow Simon Keeling as he seems to be fairly spot on and presents well backed up and unbiased forecasts. At present he's opting for a brief cold incursion over the weekend and then a trend to (and I stress) cooler period with interludes of cold and mild till mid Feb! Now before members jump down my throat about not being able to reliably predict past 72hrs out, I actually agree, but Mr Keeling watches trends and he's been pretty much spot on this winter (as was he last winter).

BTW I too badly would love snow and prolonged cold but I'm a realist and rather than go into a deep depression oe becoming elated with every model run, I weigh up potential based on output and expert analysis!

ALL The big 3 ukmo ecm gfs only 4days to go thats the difference!

#871 mcweather

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:10

Interesting to note that the ECM hasn't really backtracked in the traditional sense, ie its not been showing mild for five days in a row and suddenly changed, it has simply reverted to the evolution it was showing about 4 runs back which at the time had a good deal of ensemble support.

#872 mike Meehan

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:10

You live on the lizard peninsula? Must be hard pushed to get snow there unless its an exceptional month like Dec 2010.


Naw, they got plenty in 1963 and on the Scilly Isles as well.
I was standing by a lamp post at the corner of the street,
in case a little snow flake passes by,
oh me, oh my,
in case a little snow flake passes by

#873 UV-RAY

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:10

I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itPosted Image

NO!Posted Image

You never know in these kind of set ups if any fronts from Atlantic stall over your area, then yes copious amounts. I think anyone is at risk of snow in the next 7 days.

#874 snowstorm445

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:10

Just watched the weather forecast on Irish TV (they use the ECM for their forecasts). They're still going for westerlies next week! They obviously haven't seen the latest output! :D

Edited by snowstorm445, 08 January 2013 - 19:10 .


#875 cooling climate

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:10

Just be reading through the thread to get a feel of the excitment in here. 42 pages since the
early hours of this morning. MADNESS.
Incredible runs this evening but you have to say a massive hats off to the GFS twice this week
it looks to have called things right in regards to handling the energy coming out of the states
with the energy in the Atlantic. The ECM definitely playing second fiddle catch up here not that
anyone will be really that bothered when you have cross model agreement a mega cold spell
coming up.
Truely amazing synoptics being shown now people are not going to know whats hit them after
the benign weather we have been experiencing. This SSW owes us big time if it was this that
altered the weather back in December and boy it looks as though it will pay up.
Don't forget to nip to the supermarket for the snow shovells before they run out.

Edited by cooling climate, 08 January 2013 - 19:12 .


#876 cornish snow

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:11

Can't see even Cornwall missing out if this run comes off.

dont you believe it . Getting snow to the uk is one thing,getting it down here is quite another.

#877 Slowpoke

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:11

I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itPosted Image


I'm still wondering if I'll get snow in Blackpool, we'll have to wait and see.

Should these runs come off however, a cold snap will hit the entire of the UK and Ireland
Location: Blackpool (50m)

#878 Dunstable Snow

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:11

What an evening of model watching!! I do feel as though its been coming to be honest. Lets enjoy it while it lasts as these moments dont come along very often. Hats off to IB for coming on and facing up. Lets hope it proves to be as special on the ground as these charts are suggesting. Highly unlikely I know but we can dream !

Enjoy......

#879 Shrimper

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:11

So what are the verification stats at day 4?

Surely it cant go Pete Tong for the weekend at least?
Lover of Southend Utd F.C and all things weather!!...

#880 trisnow

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Posted 08 January 2013 - 19:11

Can anybody explain what this means in complete newbie terms? A poster called Iceberg said this earlier :

"First off we've got the GFS; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.
Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06 GFS would be good.
Finally the ECM, A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep for both), the 12z today should be the first ecm with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that ecm will revert to GH height rises in the medium term.
"

Does that mean that the ECM had the wrong data fro the previous two runs and that is why there is a big turn around?