Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[katemart]

I could post some eye candy snow charts for Saturday night/Sunday morning but I'm not going to as these will change over time again.

Eye candy is better than no candy, AWD! Go awwwnnn.... you know it makes sense

[lfcdude]

Good point. The proper Regionals were the best!

(Sorneset?)

Yes... No hard feelings........ Can we have are south west back?

As it is.. It Is a massive area.

I am looking forward to nae model tomorrow

Edited January 9, 2013 by lfcdude

[gottolovethisweather]

Monday could be the day to watch down here.

Without banging on about my post from yesterday too much, I still maintain that the period right through from late on Saturday to Tuesday 15th looks a hotpot of snowy potential for some lucky buggers.

Nothing has persuaded me to change my mind in the short-term.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Eye candy is better than no candy, AWD! Go awwwnnn.... you know it makes sense

Oh Ok then;

Those of you looking long term, you had better hope the UKMO is going the right way.

[katemart]

Yes... No hard feelings........ Can we have are south west back?

As it is.. Is a massive area.

I am looking forward to nae model tomorrow

But you'd have to come in with us Centrallists... (trying not to feel unwanted).

FWIW, I agree with gtltw. Don't know where, but someone's gonna get a lovely surprise!

[lfcdude]

Oh Ok then;

Those of you looking long term, you had better hope the UKMO is going the right way.

Not bat for Wiltshire... Not bad atoll...

[katemart]

Oh Ok then;

Thank you! Now, if you could just make the pink move a little bit more south.... we don't need that green rubbish

[jethro]

Cornwall seems to be under the green in 12z pics I want to be under the blue ;-)

You sure??? Blue is rain, green is sleet, pink is snow.

[jethro]

What a glorious Spring day it's been today, sunshine, warm, no breeze - perfect! I'm sure I'll get as excited as the next person if we end up with snow but after today, there's a large bit of me which would like to skip Winter altogether and fast forward to Spring.

[AWD]

Thank you! Now, if you could just make the pink move a little bit more south.... we don't need that green rubbish

It's looking positive for most inland areas of the South & South West to see some sort of snowfall this weekend. It's just a case of:

- How much rain falls first

- How much PPN there actually is

- The position and direction of the LP

- How quick the cold air undercuts

- How much, if any, settles

[Coast]

12z GFS gives the optimal time for possibilities late Saturday afternoon:

[Nights King]

You sure??? Blue is rain, green is sleet, pink is snow.

Currenly looks good for mendips jeth

[noggin]

could it be a repeat......

what a dream it would be (and a coincidence it would be, perhaps these guys have had a heads up!)

http://www.thisisexe...tail/story.htmly.html

I was there! Actually there, in Exeter! At that very time!

[Lynxus]

Just popped in to say.

GET IN THERE MY SON!

First good signs of something snowy this year. Fingers crossed! Still plenty of time between now and then so lots could change..

Lets hope that it changes for the better with perfect synoptics for a change!

[jessandjon]

You sure??? Blue is rain, green is sleet, pink is snow.

I meant like the 144 hour pic things not the snow pics, deffo want pink in those pics!!!

[AWD]

Latest NAE keeps the trend of the colder air arriving earlier than the GFS/UKMO. This would hopefully help us out more on Saturday;

Edited January 9, 2013 by AWD

[Iceberg]

Meto looks good to me, if you examine the GFS 850's, wet bulb and 1000-850 thicknesses, then Bristol, glos etc stay in the snow zone throughout the precip due to the undercut happenign below 850 you only really need 850's of -3 to -4 for snow under this situation.(much smaller temp gradient in the atmosphere).

Raw Meto GM at T72 would indicate a very similar GFS solution i.e snow for NE of our region turning readily to snow for 6-9 hrs for wilts, east somerset, north dorset and hampshire.

The trend is still our friend.

[AWD]

Meto looks good to me, if you examine the GFS 850's, wet bulb and 1000-850 thicknesses, then Bristol, glos etc stay in the snow zone throughout the precip due to the undercut happenign below 850 you only really need 850's of -3 to -4 for snow under this situation.(much smaller temp gradient in the atmosphere).

Raw Meto GM at T72 would indicate a very similar GFS solution i.e snow for NE of our region turning readily to snow for 6-9 hrs for wilts, east somerset, north dorset and hampshire.

The trend is still our friend.

Good post, shows how complex forecasting snow is. Here's a rather nice looking GFS chart for us;

[Lynxus]

Meto looks good to me, if you examine the GFS 850's, wet bulb and 1000-850 thicknesses, then Bristol, glos etc stay in the snow zone throughout the precip due to the undercut happenign below 850 you only really need 850's of -3 to -4 for snow under this situation.(much smaller temp gradient in the atmosphere).

Raw Meto GM at T72 would indicate a very similar GFS solution i.e snow for NE of our region turning readily to snow for 6-9 hrs for wilts, east somerset, north dorset and hampshire.

The trend is still our friend.

Can only hope mate!

Might go buy a sledge lol

[noggin]

I don't know what to think/expect. So many ups and downs. I think I'll just wait and see what happens........anything else is just too exhausting.

Beautiful day today.

B&Q had snow shovels by the door today @ £9.99.

[AWD]

I don't know what to think/expect. So many ups and downs. I think I'll just wait and see what happens........anything else is just too exhausting.

Beautiful day today.

B&Q had snow shovels by the door today @ £9.99.

What were they? Made of Gold?

[Bumpkin]

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Castle_Cary~2653601/long.html

Next week is looking interesting. I saw the sun today i made the most of it as you never know when it will appear again!

[Dorsetbred]

I don't know what to think/expect. So many ups and downs. I think I'll just wait and see what happens........anything else is just too exhausting.

Beautiful day today.

B&Q had snow shovels by the door today @ £9.99.

They're abviously not reading the MOD thread then, if they were, they'd be giving them away...

[Dorsetbred]

http://www.yr.no/pla...53601/long.html

Next week is looking interesting. I saw the sun today i made the most of it as you never know when it will appear again!

Pity that it's says exactly the same when I enter my town too!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[gottolovethisweather]

Can only hope mate!

Might go buy a sledge lol

And without hope, what have we got. I am no longer hoping, I'm borderline expecting, even 72 hours out.

I like others aren't sure whose house is going to have inches of the stuff settle on it and whose house isn't.

The Met Office are bracing themselves too.

http://www.metoffice.../colder-weather

For now, we are playing a waiting game and will be until the rain starts turning to snow.

I expect some decent accumulations in parts of the country, that you can be sure of.

http://www.yr.no/pla...53601/long.html

Next week is looking interesting. I saw the sun today i made the most of it as you never know when it will appear again!

Indeed it is and that is cold.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather