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Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

The watcher

By The watcher
in Regional

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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted

Happy New Year folks. Metcheck is nice to look at sometimes but I wouldn't pin any hopes on it as those charts change with the model outputs several times a day. In a way I'm kind of glad that we haven't had anything really cold yet. If you think back to 2010, even though it was epic it was all gone by Boxing Day. I still think we have a real chance of some cold spells! We shall see!

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snowmore Explorer

snowmore

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow!
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow!
Posted

Happy New Year folks. Metcheck is nice to look at sometimes but I wouldn't pin any hopes on it as those charts change with the model outputs several times a day.

Your right there, it doesn't look as good this evening. Hopefully we get a few snowy days out of this SSW, pereferably with a weekend in the middle :-)

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Author
Posted

At the minute we have subtle signs that something might turn in favor of some colder weather, but we are still in the very early stages of this. I was glad to see the increase in ensemble members pointing colder than earlier yesterdays. What does concern me though is the large spread, which to me says it is another spell with the same risks as the late November/Early December Russian High spell (although with a HP to our North this time). I wish those pesky PV areas around Greenland would disperse. This is the area I would like our cold spell to be controlled from.

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gingercat Apprentice

gingercat

Posted
  • Location: Newtownabbey SE Antrim
  • Location: Newtownabbey SE Antrim
Posted

Really mild here today 11c. There's just something not right about that in early January! I'm not complaining though as its pleasant not to feel the biting cold, but we really need a sharp, bitter cold spell to kill off all the nasty bugs and viruses that are thriving in this heat!

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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted

Some tasty charts starting to show again just as predicted due to the SSW! Something feels good about this but things starting to fall into place nicely! Come in folks lets liven this wee thread up again! I think we are the quietest thread on NW! Lol! I'm not sure about all the SSW stuff so can someone maybe explain what it means for us? Will it bring an Easterly, Northerly or a bit of everything?

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Author
Posted

We have the least members in our region for the forum, Scotland a close second, that's why it is not usually that busy. However, there should be alot more than just 10 of us (Baltic, Sundog, Stormforce, Mountain Shadow, Gingercat, Ronan, jamesd, BIG Lad, etc). Downburst is usually in, haven't seen him much at all this winter.

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sundog Seasoned

sundog

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted

well the models have slowly but surely been showing better promise for cold,hopefully in the not too distant future we will see some really good runs. thingp are shaping up

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Shaping up indeed, and the warming hasn't even occurred yet. Hopefully it shifts West so that Ireland is not in the area of WAA with only Eastern areas of the UK seeing the cold air.

Also, good to see the MJO forecast start to favor the colder scenario aswell. Some interesting few days coming up.

Edited by The watcher
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cue_killar Apprentice

cue_killar

Posted
  • Location: Belfast, Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: snooow
  • Location: Belfast, Northern Ireland
Posted

We have the least members in our region for the forum, Scotland a close second, that's why it is not usually that busy. However, there should be alot more than just 10 of us (Baltic, Sundog, Stormforce, Mountain Shadow, Gingercat, Ronan, jamesd, BIG Lad, etc). Downburst is usually in, haven't seen him much at all this winter.

I'm always around, it's just I don't really have much knowledge to forecasting the weather other than looking out my window :(. I like to read everyday though to see what you guys think is happening around us. :D

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted

I'm always around, it's just I don't really have much knowledge to forecasting the weather other than looking out my window sad.png. I like to read everyday though to see what you guys think is happening around us. biggrin.png

And I'm here, just that I don't post much as all that has to be said is said and some. Actually loving last couple days took a walk at lunch around leopardstown race course, sun came out and I felt heat on my back. Really is nice. I know not popular to say. Anyway on the ssw, I'm not buying it in terms of it's definite effect on these parts. We will see though. Model thread totally lost it this year, can't take it seriously.

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skywatcher Apprentice

skywatcher

Posted
  • Location: Costa Blanca, Spain
  • Location: Costa Blanca, Spain
Posted

OK, take a look at the In Depth Analysis Models thread, specifically, Snowking's summary of the situation and how it might well develop. That'll put a smile on your face if you're hoping for some cold weather.

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Author
Posted

Some excellent posts today in the MOD (as well as the filler crap in between lol), but I think we can now assert that we are at least looking at returning to a cooler spell with temps dropping back to normal or just below over the course of the next week. Question now on mine and many lips is "How will things shape up after?"

What has really got my attention is the MJO forecasts and their composites. Phases 7-8 over the course of January from mid month, plus 2 SSW events, maybe 3. Will these hold water and create one long spell of HLB and Split PV? It looks very, very good to do so.

Still concerned with how close the WAA is to Ireland though, but because the models have not got a handle yet, the SSW event may help to back the pattern West a bit due to the lax/reversal in mean winds.

It's been over a month since we had excitement like this in the weather, looks like it is back to watching again full tilt.

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Author
Posted

Certainly looking forward to the next few weeks. Things shaping up nicely! Always a doubt in the back of my mind but!

Best way to be IMO. You have to be optimistic in this game, otherwise your losses will exceed your gains. The glass is half full, but if you take another swig, it'll be closer to empty.

It has been dry here in Bangor last 2 days (except for a little drizzle last night) but dull. Feels cooler today than the last 2 days have been., but not by much.

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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted (edited)

Quite happy with this evenings runs. Let's just see if we can keep the trend. There may be upgrades or downgrades as we all know that things can change in a short space of time. My fear is that we get the cold but the East gets all the snow as usual. Would I be right in think that if things move further west then there's a chance if a northerly before the easterly sets in?

Edited by ronan
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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted (edited)

Well there could wintry showers from the northwest prior to an easterly. Both gfs and ecm show this possibility. The outlook from 120 hrs on is extremely uncertain and subject to a big health warning.

Being in the east of course my priority is away from a northwesterly!

Edited by The Eagle
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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Author
Posted

This would be nice!! Starting to get close to the reliable time frame to!!

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

I haven't seen the SLP charts for that, but it looks like the battle ground between East and West has set up shop in the middle of Eire.

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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted

I think things are more or less certain to go cold by the end of the week. How cold and how snowy will be decided over the next few days and with these type of setups snow can come from nowhere! Gonna be a great week for us cold lovers.

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Earth Wind and Snow Apprentice

Earth Wind and Snow

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Frost, Thunder and Storms
  • Location: South Kilkenny Ireland
Posted (edited)

did anyone see the RTE Farming Forecast for the week ahead? are they playing up the chances of a cold easterly by next weekend as per ECM output?

ah just seen it on RTE iPlayer - that ties in with the ECM model

Edited by Earth Wind and Snow
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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted (edited)

some juicy charts appearing on the models now. could be our first frost tuesday night for a wee while/ after we get a good soaking today and tomorro that is.

thank goodness this mild nightmarish weather is coming to an end.

Edited by stormforce 10
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ronan Seasoned

ronan

Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
Posted

Well there you have it. One run and they are crying that winter is over! Very surprised at Steve Murrs posts today! Very negative and setting a bad tone in the model thread! Maybe it will happen or maybe it won't but more runs needed!

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

The main MOD thread has become a joke really. Unfortunately, as long as it keeps bringing in the big numbers and keeps the masses here entertained, I doubt there will be much change.

Oh well. At least things still look like cooling down in a few days time.

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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

The main MOD thread has become a joke really. Unfortunately, as long as it keeps bringing in the big numbers and keeps the masses here entertained, I doubt there will be much change.

Oh well. At least things still look like cooling down in a few days time.

the strat thread has really picked up interest this winter.

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