Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[Karl83]

Very intense hail storm here just now. Haven't seen a hail storm like it for a very long time. Everything is white. Nice.

[Gas Ed]

More to come I think too.

The radar reminds me a bit of that snow-streamer we had a few years ago where the showers seemed to funnel up the Bristol Channel.

Shame the temps are a couple of degrees too high to repeat that event tonight though

Edited December 30, 2012 by Gas Ed

[Raidan]

Mental hailstorm just passed through here everything went white for a few minutes,Accidently put this report in the south east discussion half a sleep.

[Raidan]

Rumble of thunder just woke me up!

[Mark Parsons]

So some eye candy starting to develop in deep FI, as an optimist this would be interesting stuff if this were to verify and can't wait to view with amusement the roller coaster that is about to start, the rattle throwing and wrist slashing!!!!!!

[noggin]

That was some hailstorm last night! It was at about 3.30am here. I looked out of the window and it was a Winter wonderland.

Had it been snow, I would have gone out to play in it, but as it was hail, I went back to bed. Took me ages to get back to sleep.

I see that we are now looking towards snowmageddon on about 15th January. I wonder if it will come to pass, or if we will get another massive turnaround like we had a few weeks ago?

One thing is certain...........I will not be promising snow to anybody!

PS As I type, it's lashing down, blowing a gale and it is noticeably colder this morning.

Edited December 30, 2012 by noggin

[AWD]

Some more showers here this morning. These should slowly fade away over the next few hours and we might even get a glimmer of sunshine before sunset.

Then tomorrow we have further rain, currently to the west of Ireland now;

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sun doth appear between the wind and rain..6.5c 10mph with gusts south westerly...Had thunder at 07:20...Rainbows have been seen this morning...Very Soggy underfoot.

[AWD]

Latest NAE shows another 15mm of rainfall widely over the SW tomorrow, with potentially more on upland facing slopes.

This should be the last of any meaningful rainfall for the foreseeable down here, with pressure starting to rise from the South West midweek;

[Dorsetbred]

Dry and bright, nay I say SUNNY day, with a cooling breeze from the SSW

[SteveB]

Latest NAE shows another 15mm of rainfall widely over the SW tomorrow, with potentially more on upland facing slopes.

This should be the last of any meaningful rainfall for the foreseeable down here, with pressure starting to rise from the South West midweek;

If we do get 15mm+ that would push the monthly total over 200mm's making that 3 months this year which have exceeded 200mm's

Edited December 30, 2012 by SteveB

[legritter]

Just noticed an area of rain developing very quickly over wales at the moment ,also pressure over last hour as fallen . Well just over a day left of 2012 and still the possibility of 25mm or so of rain for some locations ,as i type the wind is picking up and the local Jackdaws are leaving the rooftops . the first week of January is looking dry and mild for us in our area ,but after especially after day 10 the modells are at odds ,but still 9 weeks of winter left plus march, if i dont post again before tuesday i hope all of you in our patch and beyond a good new year and remember the weather is full of surprises cheers for now

[AWD]

Tuesday is actually looking like a rather sunny, but nippy day for most of the South & South West.

Temperatures ranging from around 5c in Gloucestershire & Wiltshire, 6c in Bristol, Bath & North Somerset area, 7c in South Somerset, Dorset, Hampshire & Devon & 8c in Cornwall;

Nothing too cold but definetly not mild either. With clear, sunny skies for a lot of us as well;

It could turn into a rather pleasent opening day to 2013.

[Lyn-M]

I need another 46mm to push my total to the level of November at 201mm, unlikely methinks! It's also not going to be the wettest December or even the wettest year since my records started here in 2000.

[Dorsetbred]

I need another 46mm to push my total to the level of November at 201mm, unlikely methinks! It's also not going to be the wettest December or even the wettest year since my records started here in 2000.

46mm that's a lot in one day methinks, even with it being at wet as it is.

[cerneman]

Seems that we heading towards settled spell for week or so, Maybe get out in garden for clean and tidy up, Hope after mid January can get some frost in the ground

[gottolovethisweather]

I copy below, a post of mine from the SE & EA thread, concerning prospects as we head into the New Year. The general theme is the same for this region, with simply just a Temperature amendment required, most likely upwards of 1c to 2c.

Hello all,

I will attempt a brief regionally based summary of how I think the weather will develop as we head into the New Year.

As the GEFS 12z ensembles are not out yet, I will base my forecast on some charts from the same run.

Firstly, where we stand right now, courtesy of the NH Jetstream and T850s charts.

By t+72 (Wednesday 2nd January, 12pm) there are already clear signs of a pattern change. Temperatures at the surface will remain near to average, by this time. The range, generally being 5c to 7c as Maximums, significantly cooler in any foggy conditions.

Now look at the Northern Hemipshere Jetstream position by t+120 (Friday 4th January, 12pm), it is forced around us, due to a large HP cell placed slap bang over the United Kingdom. By this time, Temperatures should be milder than average, with 9c to 12c being the likely range of Maximums achieved.

Finally, at ten days range (Wednesday 9th January, 12pm), the Northern Hemipshere Jetstream pattern has significantly changed once again, with a tendency for the bulk of the Southern jet, wanting to head down South, almost to the edge of Western Africa. This is a pattern which may well assist our chances of an increasing polar flow as we head towards mid-January.

In my opinion, an ever intriguing but confusing outlook will begin to unfold across all model outputs, as they ponder when and where to position the demise of the High Pressure cell, around the end of week 1 of January. Please try not to be confused as many a conflicting post across the forum threads will be upcoming, due to model inconsistency as aforementioned.

Edited December 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[chris55]

Wild Weather with Ian F is on BBC one now, very good actually! Ian is doing a great job and although sometimes these weather program's can be pretty dummed down, this is very interesting. Good Job Ian.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wild Weather with Ian F is on BBC one now, very good actually! Ian is doing a great job and although sometimes these weather program's can be pretty dummed down, this is very interesting. Good Job Ian.

finished now sadly, is there a bbc 1 +1?

Im watching it on sky 967 bbc SW, midlands presenters suck

Edited December 30, 2012 by Gimmesomesnow

[chris55]

finished now sadly, is there a bbc 1 +1?

Im watching it on sky 967 bbc SW, midlands presenters suck

Check out the I player a bit later on.

[cerneman]

Wild Weather with Ian F is on BBC one now, very good actually! Ian is doing a great job and although sometimes these weather program's can be pretty dummed down, this is very interesting. Good Job Ian.

Just seen one for South west on bbc with David Braine, Liked his quote " Wettest drought every seen"

[Dorsetbred]

Wild Weather with Ian F is on BBC one now, very good actually! Ian is doing a great job and although sometimes these weather program's can be pretty dummed down, this is very interesting. Good Job Ian.

Just watched it "Well done Ian F." nice presentation and factual not hype, good stuuf.

[Andy Bown]

To say it was a bit brisk on Weston Super Mare seafront this afternoon would be an understatement!

I think the front which took heavy rain across Wales must have had a tight gradient on its' Southern flank between about 13.00-15.00 as

the wind was extremely gusty! But very exhilarating in the hazy sunshine!

I'm looking forward to watching the wild weather programme so it's good to read positive opinions.

Edit : thank goodness that tomorrow's active front is the last for quite some time according to Countyfile! Although some parts will see downpours tomorrow night into Tuesday as usual in WNW flows post cold front.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Andy Bown

[Mesoscale]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/search?q=Wild%20Weather

[Lyn-M]

Thanks for that link, Mesoscale! Now I watch them all....well some of them anyway. Saw David Braine's one live, would certainly like to see Ian's too.