Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[Matty M]

No there is no proper LP forming here to pull back the cold.

[DR(S)NO]

I'm afraid the weather takes no pity on us, what will be will be. Even if we end up writing off one month of winter that still leaves us with 2 whole months to play with. Can we turn it around?! If things carry on in the same vein then you'd really have to question just how valid all the background and teleconnection signals are for our small part of the world.

Going to stock up on extra alcohol to ease the pain of what looks like it could be a mild, wet & windy Christmas 2012!

Not sure we are exactly writing off a whole month of winter though.......certainly Scotland has had quite a reasonable start to winter.......already had quite a few days with snow on the ground. And almost a straight 10 days of overnight frosts.

Whilst the prospects for Xmas look mild for many. Things can ,and probably will,change.Still 14 days of December left.......were some here not looking at an almost guaranteed severe cold spell 14 days ago?

[Ian Brown]

ECM postage stamps indicate game still on. This is mighty tense. The ECM OP was a MILD SOL!

Matty, although it looks potentially 'close' it isn't going to be because with the height raise from the South the Atlantic system can only go one way and that is NE, that height rise projection is a pretty solid likelihood so we can't win the game unfortunately.

[Continental Climate]

Matty, although it looks potentially 'close' it isn't going to be because with the height raise from the South the Atlantic system can only go one way and that is NE, that height rise projection is a pretty solid likelihood so we can't win the game unfortunately.

I agree its clearly game over for now look at this chart at 120 http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png!! We really need that russian block to bugger off now, people have been saying this for a while now and it just hangs there teasing us!!!

on another note if we cant have cold i would far rather go for record warmth!! What do people think our chances are of getting those +10 850's to our shore? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png!!

Now that would be notable!!!

Edited December 17, 2012 by Continental Climate

[TEITS]

Matty, although it looks potentially 'close' it isn't going to be because with the height raise from the South the Atlantic system can only go one way and that is NE, that height rise projection is a pretty solid likelihood so we can't win the game unfortunately.

I don't think Matty is looking for a prolonged cold spell. However the chance of a brief cold spell followed by a snow to rain event remains very much on the cards.

I will add why on earth some are predicting the end of the month based on the current output is beyond me. The difference in the modelling of the SWs continues to cause problems. Some will say what have they to do with it? My answer is everything because the whole reason we see such divergences in the model output in F.I is because of the slight changes in the early part of model runs (Chaos theory).

[Liam J]

Not sure we are exactly writing off a whole month of winter though.......certainly Scotland has had quite a reasonable start to winter.......already had quite a few days with snow on the ground. And almost a straight 10 days of overnight frosts.

Whilst the prospects for Xmas look mild for many. Things can ,and probably will,change.Still 14 days of December left.......were some here not looking at an almost guaranteed severe cold spell 14 days ago?

Well certainly IMBY and many others no doubt, obviously theres going to be some exceptions. I fear that if the Azores/Iberian high becomes a big player then it could easily eat into a big chunk of the remaining two weeks of December.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Liam J

[Ian Brown]

There is a little bit of Westward correction going on at T150...

[Robbie Garrett]

Fantastic output from the ECMWF this morning though, looking at the conditions it is favorable for a northerly as we head into the New Year with the energy from that low out of Newfoundland combined with the low stalling as it hits the Azores/Iberian high as well as the eastern European block to our far east. Even a few of the models runs on the GFS have also seen this idea going for a northerly/north -easterly as the polar vortex sets up over Scandinavia as part is dragged from over Russia.

From my post last night, regarding this scenario, fantasy had become reality in FI.

By the time we get to 240hours you can see the high pressure starting to grow some greens near Greenland and is filling out.

Hopefully the basic energy directions being shown with the arrows energy coming out of Newfoundland sending the Azores high up towards Greenland to further fill out that high. Regarding the scandinavian trough setting up shop as the high to our east moves over. You can already see the resultant energy from the Azores as a kink in the pressure mid-atlantic being pushed up by the low south east of Newfoundland and the low over the UK sending that energy down towards us from Scandinavia.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[TEITS]

I fear that if the Azores/Iberian high becomes a big player then it could easily eat into a big chunk of the remaining two weeks of December.

Nope because the Azores/Iberian high is going to be squashed by the Atlantic LP around the +144 mark as highlighted by the output. The question is how stubborn will the HP to our E be to allow the LP to move E.

The ideal situation really is some locations experience the brief E,ly with possible snowfall and then the HP to our E quickly moves away E to allow the LP to also travel E bringing a possible NW/N,ly.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just to lift some spirits.... at least we are only 17 days into winter ! December was not forecast by GP (out of the 3 winter months) to be anything noteworthy, Average or just below was the main theme, and things seem to be going to plan so far.

And if thing's continue as they are with strat warmings modeled for around Christmas, then Jan/Feb could very well be on our side, with below/ or well below temp's as forecast by GP.

Jan/Feb can deliver extremely cold condition's for the UK, as we have seen in the past. Also i would not write off some good PM shot's around Christmas, the models have been flip/flopping for weeks now and are very unpredictable.

I must have listened to the alternative forecast then, and its definitely pulling away from it the deeper we enter Dec. For Christmas period I think we see where we are heading, with strong heights to our NW the least likely option on the table.

BFTP

BFTP

[Matty M]

The 6z OP is likely to be an outlier in relation to its development of the Atlantic incursion around T96-120hrs

[Ian Brown]

Battle lost again on this run, white Xmas (eve) for Greece and the Adriatic region.

[bluearmy]

its no accident that the atlantic really gets motoring when the low heights are proged to move into ne greenland. we've seen many times in the past that when vortex energy heads across the polar region in either direction, the atlantic gets a big shove. this energy surge has been consistently modelled so would be a big test of that block if it manages to hold on more than the current post day 7 output shows. still interested in what might happen with thos iberian heights if they get much further north than currently progged. lots of comments re 'delaying the inevtiable' and i think thats certainly the case. lets hope that this is the darkest point in the fi output as it looks pretty zonal with heights over iberia throughout week 2 on naefs. the more optimistic will say they're just waiting for an opportunity to retrogress to greenland !! dec 2009. that looked shocking till one sat morning when gfs suddenly found an atlantic ridge late in week 2 and the rest was ............

[Liam J]

Nope because the Azores/Iberian high is going to be squashed by the Atlantic LP around the +144 mark as highlighted by the output. The question is how stubborn will the HP to our E be to allow the LP to move E.

Certainly looks to be against us post T144? A long fetch SW'ly setting up with everything running SW to NE. Horrid looking 6z from that point regardless of the improvements in earlier time frames.

[TEITS]

with strong heights to our NW the least likely option on the table.

BFTP

BFTP

Yes the lack of any decent heights to our NW really is annoying and to be honest the lack of them has been such a disappointment all this month. The NAO has been mainly neutral this month apart from a short period when the index dropped just below -1. However I really don't class this as a negative NAO. Any index that is -1 or +1 is classed as neutral in my opinion.

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

Edited December 17, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Duane S.]

The ECM ens this morning show a significant cluster away from what the op showed. But unfortunately for us, even if one of these verified it is unlikely to change anything for us in the UK (Scotland and the NE possibly the exception). IMO the models have been pretty consistent with showing the Azores high ridging up just where we don't want it and still this pesky upper trough sat to our west. Even when an undercut is shown, it is shown to come to very little. My expectations for something in the south come Xmas has been close to zilch for a while but now I struggle to see much for most other UK places Xmas time.

This is an absolute typical 'no-mans land' UK setup. We have the strong block to our east so we are looking for that to back west but with little evidence trough disruption and the Atlantic in general is going to play ball is that only going to make things worse? So do we then hope for the upper trough to pass over us and set up over the North Sea. A real quandry, not that we have any say in it but it's one of those situations when you don't really know what you want to see the charts showing in its early stages.

I was hoping that the 00z's of the other day was the start of a new trend to bring in a Northerly, but even that has petered out. I am hopeful that we will see a new trend emerge (albeit in FI initially) away from this current setup over the coming days though. Although I can understand Ian and others concern with the Azores and jet etc. But... plenty going on high up that could invoke a favourable pattern change as we head in January. With a bit of that illusive luck!!!

[Methuselah]

I must have listened to the alternative forecast then, and its definitely pulling away from it the deeper we enter Dec. For Christmas period I think we see where we are heading, with strong heights to our NW the least likely option on the table.

BFTP

BFTP

You were saying? http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20121217;time=06;ext=300;file=h850t850eu;sess=f6f5354448930c2bbac4853828b96084;

[-uksnow-]

who wants to start the next chase?

[mountain shadow]

Looks like it is all eyes to the stratosphere to deliver in mid to late January.

[Duane S.]

Slightly different then...

00z

06z

Edited December 17, 2012 by s4lancia

[TEITS]

Ha Ha me and my big mouth.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.png

A very good example of why you shouldn't make assumptions over the next couple of weeks.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Slightly different then...

00z

06z

Of course it will be, it's 2 weeks away!!!!

[TEITS]

Of course it will be, it's 2 weeks away!!!!

Exactly and thats why members shouldn't be making bold statements about the rest of this year. The ball gets rolling at +240.

Shows what a challenging task the likes of GP, CH have in trying to predict our weather.

[Liam J]

Slightly different then...

00z

06z

How often do you get charts remaining consistently similar/same at that time frame?

[Weathizard]

Disappointing runs this morning I feel, ensembles look a lot worse compared to the 18z. The Iberian high is going to be a nuisance, how often do we see it in winter and we have good charts at around 216-240 with the Azores high dominant and then suddenly we are in a cold spell, think we need to be in this for the long haul but I am worried that the Azores high seems to be rearing its ugly head again.

The only way this could work in our favour is if we get some sort of ridging into Greenland, and one thing more favourable on the 6z is the Polar Vortex doesn't stay over NW Greenland.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Weathizard