Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[fromey]

oh no, models getting interesting again lol.

Still it does go to show that all those who were pretty much writing off the rest of December were talking rubbish to say that because lets face it, the models can flip at any time, I do get the impression that some are very quick to take a mild outlook as gospel yet they're very quick to dismiss a cold outlook.

Definite positive signs today, here's hoping they continue with the 18z later.

only believe it when it starts falling from the sky, save yourself the pain and the prozac

fromey

[kumquat]

Thanks for the ensemble plots gtltw. Looks very much from the Icelandic charts like a positive NAO to set in. I'm not too disheartened by this, however. I liked the anomaly chart posted in the main model thread by Tom W about how the models are struggling especially around the BI at the moment. Not surprising, really, being at the boundary of such opposing pressure and temperature differences.

I'm also happy to see, when I do my own mini minutiae studies, that the models are not all they're cracked up to be even hours within them coming out when juxtaposed against REALITY.

hehe - couple of posts in the model thread about GFS 18z perturbation 17 are worth a look at.

ECM 12z trending towards those ensemble members that TEITs and Matty M highlighted last night. Here we go again!!

[Nights King]

only believe it when it starts falling from the sky, save yourself the pain and the prozac

fromey

When it does start to fall from the sky you need to ask your self one thing... how many prozac have you taken!?

[Andy Bown]

Eurgh!

0.3c and drizzling!

I guess it may be freezing on the ground but am not going outside to find out.

[fromey]

When it does start to fall from the sky you need to ask your self one thing... how many prozac have you taken!?

then its a rapid Detox to be able to enjoy it!!

Just check my temp it actually 0.4c not 1.5c and there something falling, its like a thick drizzle but of ice, the little balls of them bouncing off the car windscreen.

very odd

fromey

[gottolovethisweather]

I know Ian F has kind of put the kibosh on this particular scenario, but you never know, I nay have been onto something remotely possible, yesterday evening. A continuing trend it is, but we still need it to firm up for a few more days yet.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2445505

Edited December 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Bristawl Si]

I know Ian F has kind of put the kibosh on this particular scenario, but you never know if I was onto something remotely possible, yesterday evening. A continuing trend, it is but we still need a few days yet.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75230-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion/page__st__420#entry2445505

I think this view is perfectly valid.

We're an island which is influenced by the Atlantic predominately but why shouldnt factors to the East influence now and again.

From my simple take on the situ currently is that the UK is smack bang in the middle of an East meets West scenario in weather terms, that will fluctuate over next few weeks.

[gottolovethisweather]

I think this view is perfectly valid.

We're an island which is influenced by the Atlantic predominately but why shouldnt factors to the East influence now and again.

From my simple take on the situ currently is that the UK is smack bang in the middle of an East meets West scenario in weather terms, that will fluctuate over next few weeks.

Thank you Bristle boy. Which way it goes, is still firmly up in the air but I suppose, we must remember that the MetO have a lot more armoury at their disposal too.

Edited December 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

And not forgetting this summary was based on yesterday's GFS 12z data.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75230-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion/page__st__420#entry2445564

This was subsequently largely backed up by a few more of today's runs.

[Dorsetbred]

Some light patchy rain down here in the last hour, not visible on radar, but visible on windscreen!

Of course the night to go seeking the meteorite shower, it's as cloudy as hell

[Frosty_wsm]

only believe it when it starts falling from the sky, save yourself the pain and the prozac

fromey

Oh I ain't buying into what the models are showing at the moment but my point is valid about some who see a zonal pattern shown right out into the depths of fi and then take it as gospel as a dead cert to happen, compared to the last few days the models have suddenly flipped to show undercutting lp's and you never know, it may happen, but if it doesn't I won't lose any sleep over it, there's plenty of winter left to see some of the white stuff.

[Dorsetbred]

ECM 12z trending towards those ensemble members that TEITs and Matty M highlighted last night. Here we go again!!

Pain killers at the ready,

Alcohol implants at the ready.

Dark sunglasses at the ready

Check

Edited December 13, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[fromey]

Oh I ain't buying into what the models are showing at the moment but my point is valid about some who see a zonal pattern shown right out into the depths of fi and then take it as gospel as a dead cert to happen, compared to the last few days the models have suddenly flipped to show undercutting lp's and you never know, it may happen, but if it doesn't I won't lose any sleep over it, there's plenty of winter left to see some of the white stuff.

you absolutely right, and as a bonus you get to keep your sanity, and as you say there's plenty of time left.

fromey

[fromey]

No I haven't - indeed you need to watch my forecast again from this evening on our Facebook page. I was quite clear in how I viewed any supposed 'done deal' re a zonal right through to Christmas. Granted, I'm going against latest UKMO guidance but it's my forecast - my view.

hey Ian, whats the facebook page called.

cheers fromey

dont worry found it!!!

Edited December 13, 2012 by fromey

[AWD]

No I haven't - indeed you need to watch my forecast again from this evening on our Facebook page. I was quite clear in how I viewed any supposed 'done deal' re a zonal right through to Christmas. Granted, I'm going against latest UKMO guidance but it's my forecast - my view.

Hello Ian.

Will the Met Office be doing an updated analysis of the next 14 days this evening?

If so, would love to hear of any changes that they might mention if you have time? See what they think of the latest runs.

In the meantime however, still on course for a spell of wet & windy weather, the first lot not far off Cornwall now.

[fergieweather]

Hello Ian.

Will the Met Office be doing an updated analysis of the next 14 days this evening?

If so, would love to hear of any changes that they might mention if you have time? See what they think of the latest runs.

In the meantime however, still on course for a spell of wet & windy weather, the first lot not far off Cornwall now.

They prepare these twice every day - and I'd imagine wish they didn't have to, because responding to ever 00z / 12z set of output is a mug's game when trying to offer prognoses every 10-15 days ahead. It would be better if prepared every 2-3 days or so. 12z longer MR (6-15d) analysis due with us around midnight.

hey Ian, whats the facebook page called.

cheers fromey

dont worry found it!!!

BBC Points West. Forecast is uploaded every evening.

[gottolovethisweather]

No I haven't - indeed you need to watch my forecast again from this evening on our Facebook page. I was quite clear in how I viewed any supposed 'done deal' re a zonal right through to Christmas. Granted, I'm going against latest UKMO guidance but it's my forecast - my view.

I haven't watched your forecasts and I'm not located in your region to get it, assuming you mean the tv stuff. I stick to the views on here and would include yours as one to absolutely follow. Intriguingly, I was referring to your post from earlier, http://forum.netweat...60#entry2446219 where you state in-house MOGREPS (?) data. Having said that, even then you mention the probability of a Northeasterly flow, albeit affecting regions further North.

It is precisely on this (the NE'rly), on which I am resting some hope of a little wintriness come Xmas.

Good stuff and please keep the updates coming.

If you can, please link the facebook page on here, as I'm sure many folk will be interested in that too.

Edited December 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[fergieweather]

I haven't watched your forecasts and I'm not located in your region to get it, assuming you mean the tv stuff. I stick to the views on here and would include yours as one to absolutely follow. Intriguingly, I was referring to your post from earlier, http://forum.netweat...60#entry2446219 where you state in-house MOGREPS (?) data. Having said that, even then you mention the probability of a Northeasterly flow, albeit affecting regions further North. It is on precisely this, on which I am resting some hope of a little wintriness come Xmas.

Good stuff and please keep the updates coming.

If you can, please link the facebook page on here, as I'm sure many folk will be interested in that too.

We've yet to see how today's MOGREPS output shapes-up but will hear later. Clearly, broad story can't change on one (12z) EC run alone. But runs over next 2-3 days could be instructive.

[gottolovethisweather]

We've yet to see how today's MOGREPS output shapes-up but will hear later. Clearly, broad story can't change on one (12z) EC run alone. But runs over next 2-3 days could be instructive.

Indeed, I like to follow the day to day runs and then by analysing them, see if one can achieve some sort of consensus on a trend.

Please never forget that this place is about sharing all our thoughts and there are many folk with different areas of interest and expertise in here as well.

I do like the way you stick your neck out at times against what the powerful MetO guidance might be suggesting at t+48, T+144 or whatever. Nothing is set in stone in this game and it is just that, which keeps all the netweather members flocking back to these forums each and every model run.

Keep the posts coming.

[fergieweather]

more concern now re winds inland later tomorrow. Gusts 40-50kts.

... and in Kent and possible other SE areas to 60kts.

[Backtrack]

No I haven't - indeed you need to watch my forecast again from this evening on our Facebook page. I was quite clear in how I viewed any supposed 'done deal' re a zonal right through to Christmas. Granted, I'm going against latest UKMO guidance but it's my forecast - my view.

Where can I find this forecast Ian?

[mrsmall]

Where can I find this forecast Ian?

https://www.facebook.com/pointswest?ref=ts&fref=ts

[Backtrack]

https://www.facebook...?ref=ts&fref=ts

Cheers mate.

Just watched that and thought, wow what a professional forecast.

How come you guys get Ian and we get a couple of absolute amateurs?

[Bristawl Si]

Cheers mate.

Just watched that and thought, wow what a professional forecast.

How come you guys get Ian and we get a couple of absolute amateurs?

Because the south west is where it's at!

[khodds]

Because we are very lucky if I could do a sticky out tongue emoticon on my phone I would! Lol!

Edited December 13, 2012 by khodds