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Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion


Jane Louise

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

I shall await the ecm and reserve judgement until later this evening... If it backs meto then I shall certainly crack open a cider air_kiss.gif

Ukmo-gm is one of their high rez models I think which we cannot see?

Edited by mullender83
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I shall await the ecm and reserve judgement until later this evening... If it backs meto then I shall certainly crack open a cider air_kiss.gif

As long as it's gone before the 0z runs! :p :p

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

I have recorded 92 mm of rain here so far this month.

As for the outlook, it looks like turning colder, but not a notable cold snap, just one that is normal for the time of year and possibly a fleeting one at that.

I shall not be dusting off my sledge just yet lazy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I have recorded 92 mm of rain here so far this month.

As for the outlook, it looks like turning colder, but not a notable cold snap, just one that is normal for the time of year and possibly a fleeting one at that.

I shall not be dusting off my sledge just yet lazy.gif

Does it ever snow in Portsmouth? :p :p

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

All many people seem to want is snow snow snow, that's what makes me cross with the model thread.

Large parts of the country do not need a quick change to snow after all the flooding etc!

What is needed is a dry spell and at this time of the year that will be plenty wintry enough for me with sunshine, frost and fog!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

All many people seem to want is snow snow snow, that's what makes me cross with the model thread.

Large parts of the country do not need a quick change to snow after all the flooding etc!

What is needed is a dry spell and at this time of the year that will be plenty wintry enough for me with sunshine, frost and fog!

Going by Ian Fergusson's very recent post in the MOD thread, that could be exactly what we get down here.

Hope so, looking forward to the frosty, foggy mornings!

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

All many people seem to want is snow snow snow, that's what makes me cross with the model thread.

Large parts of the country do not need a quick change to snow after all the flooding etc!

What is needed is a dry spell and at this time of the year that will be plenty wintry enough for me with sunshine, frost and fog!

The odds are if it is a cold weather pattern we get locked into it will be fairly dry, we just want to see some seasonal weather with a few falls of snow mixed in for good measure...10 inches should do it this early, not greedy! blum.gif

Ian F -

12z. Raw output no real surprise (other than 12z has no hint of the low over E English Channel that 00Z run had progged for midnight Sunday). Just been chatting it through with UKMO. Anyway, happy enough in these parts as currently looks a decent, effectively dry if cold weekend for my patch at least... Modified output and cross-model analysis to that range (4-5d) will be sent to us later this evening from Ops Centre's MR desk. Scope of any Atlantic incursion early next week remains subject to considerable uncertainty, of course.

Its like a bitter sweet.... sorry.gif

Edited by mullender83
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

We would be lucky to get that if the ECM verified. :(

MOD thread not so happy anymore! :p:)

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Ian's forecast just now on Points West will cheer up the folks who are currently suffering thru the dreadful floods - basically dry for a few days incl. the weekend.

Looks like we'll be entering a rather boring period of weather in the West - for some it will be a welcome relief.

Snow will have to wait it seems.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Ian's forecast just now on Points West will cheer up the folks who are currently suffering thru the dreadful floods - basically dry for a few days incl. the weekend.

Looks like we'll be entering a rather boring period of weather in the West - for some it will be a welcome relief.

Snow will have to wait it seems.

To be fair, that's probably what we need at the moment down here. We've had enough "active" weather for the time being.

Looking forward to working in some nice, crisp frosty conditions, which will also help harden the ground up.

Not too mention a cold, foggy morning. Very seasonal.

All comes down to personal preferences I guess though! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire 77m ASL
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire 77m ASL

I'd like to put an order in for some crisp dry sunny days, preferably for a long enough period so that I can take the kids out foraging for free wood for the fire!

Gotta love a bit of free heating in these hard times.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

All many people seem to want is snow snow snow, that's what makes me cross with the model thread.

Large parts of the country do not need a quick change to snow after all the flooding etc!

What is needed is a dry spell and at this time of the year that will be plenty wintry enough for me with sunshine, frost and fog!

Agreed, however the weather quite clearly has a habit of not doing what us humans want it do. I wouldn't mind betting the next extreme which some parts may have to face, will be too much snow. search.gif

That is not a forecast as such, just a mere hunch. I do believe this winter could be the year for channel lows bumping into the frigid stagnating air holding firmly to our North and East. Generally, more of the same as to what we have endured since April but with the added element of snow for some and yet more rain for others. help.gif

One type of business, I wouldn't like to have right now, is in Agriculture and the knock on from this year's chaos will still be felt in 2013 and beyond.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Driving back on the M4 tonight and the vms tells me "Severe Flooding north east England avoid area" ....... What? I had to take a second look. Yep north east.. What about the SOUTH WEST? M4 doesn't even go north east you muppets not to mention what about the poor south west suffering badly at the mo....

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

The problem is while you have one very good model predicting one thing (UKMET) which the people in a circumstance such as this will love, you also have another very good model predicting another (ECM) and another model generally sitting somewhere in between slightly favouring (if you were a statistician) the UKMET output. So, on stats these 3 very good models are probably all going to be wrong and what will happen is that they will probably converge on something in between. The ECM isnt one to do crazy flips, people will say its not used to certain modelling situations but im sure that what a lot of people dont realise is that a lot of refinement of models goes on over the years...if a model gets something seriously wrong, they probably refine it to make sure it doesnt keep doing it. So just because the ECM/GFS/UKMET (delete as appropriate) was wrong last time, doesnt mean it will be again.

Colder compared to now is likely, length of cold spell is uncertain, depth of cold spell is very uncertain.

I deliberately dont post in the model thread, but id challenge them to remember the above sometimes :)

Right, I wish for some dry weather, im sick of 'slippery' rail conditions being an excuse for my delayed trains.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Driving back on the M4 tonight and the vms tells me "Severe Flooding north east England avoid area" ....... What? I had to take a second look. Yep north east.. What about the SOUTH WEST? M4 doesn't even go north east you muppets not to mention what about the poor south west suffering badly at the mo....

I'm not exactly sure as to where the main flood risks are at present but acording to the BBC, the SE region should expect another 10 to 20mm over the next 24 hours. Add to that, the fact that it is still raining in a number of other regions and I beliece I heard there are in excess of 500 flood warnings or watches in effect, at the current time. help.gif

Things will be getting better in the next few days, we can at least be sure of that. good.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

and yet again the rain as arrived ,coming down steady and moderate now .please could someone point me in the right direction . i have an old computer ,low on memory like me and very slow doing commands ,the problem i have is it wont put up the latest ECM chart .its still showing sundays 12Z .also a few other bits and pieces wont download .GFS FAX MET OFFICE No problem .would i be right in thinking its a Browser problem .back to the weather and going by todays other outputs we could be reaching an exciting time come end of this weekend ,which ever way it goes im sure its interesting times again ,cheers and thanks .

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

I hope you are right GTLTW re the channel lows. I'd love to see that scenario. Don't think I can stand too much more of this model watching! It's becoming obsessive! I actually walked the whole way home from work engrossed in my phone updating myself on what was happening! How bad is that?!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

I'm not exactly sure as to where the main flood risks are at present but acording to the BBC, the SE region should expect another 10 to 20mm over the next 24 hours. Add to that, the fact that it is still raining in a number of other regions and I beliece I heard there are in excess of 500 flood warnings or watches in effect, at the current time. help.gif

Things will be getting better in the next few days, we can at least be sure of that. good.gif

.

Hey Gtltw, yep there is a record amount of warnings and alerts spanning the country although the south west looks the worst.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx

I see tonight there is still that band giving it some over the south west and Wales which just must be total misery to most.

I am the iPhone so find it hard to check back but it wouldn't surprise me if the kennet is on alert now which is notable giving the way the river is managed.

I drove past Oxford today and looking at the state of the river the flooded fields west only reminds me when we went on severe warning during 2007 and I and friends were evacuated when I lived there... We really need this high to get a wiggle on .. But the potential of freezing temps is worrying and not helpful. At least with snow you can see the extent of problems. If that makes sense?

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

and yet again the rain as arrived ,coming down steady and moderate now .please could someone point me in the right direction . i have an old computer ,low on memory like me and very slow doing commands ,the problem i have is it wont put up the latest ECM chart .its still showing sundays 12Z .also a few other bits and pieces wont download .GFS FAX MET OFFICE No problem .would i be right in thinking its a Browser problem .back to the weather and going by todays other outputs we could be reaching an exciting time come end of this weekend ,which ever way it goes im sure its interesting times again ,cheers and thanks .

Try holding down control when you click on the link for it.

Failing that you could delete cookies, but I hate telling people to do that if they have spent years customising their browser.

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

Just had to get out of the Model Output discussion... its just packed in there tonight!

Seems Rainfall in the SW is basically over for the next couple of days, which is extremely good news for you guys down there!

Now trying to get my head around this cold spell that's coming. Well I hope!

SM

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest from Meto/Ian;

W COUNTRY via UKMO: Expect additional surface water issues adding to problems tonight into early AM Som, N Dorset, Glos & perhaps W Wilts

Thankfully this week is looking predominantly dry & seasonal now so the recovery can begin.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

I think we will have to wait a few days to see this cold spell/snap firm up a little although what is clear is that the west country has a dry spell coming which will make a few happy that live by rivers and in low areas etc as it allows flood prone areas to recover and then after that who knows... snow is possible but could go the way of the pear we shall have to see. good.gif

I really hope we see some early winter snows before xmas! but hey ho I'll settle for a 62 style winter starting after xmas if i have too! rofl.gifblum.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

Does it ever snow in Portsmouth? blum.gifblum.gif

Not very often no blum.gif

It does look like it will be dry for the rest of the week, but not that cold, lowest temperature BBC/Met Office have for me up to Saturday is 2C

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

Not very often no blum.gif

It does look like it will be dry for the rest of the week, but not that cold, lowest temperature BBC/Met Office have for me up to Saturday is 2C

Funnily enough, here in Havant we seem to get more snow than Portsmouth does... seems to be just that bit further inland and away from the dreaded Channel!

SM

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