Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[BOMBHEADS]

is the GFS dragging the greenland low up the west side at 102?

Edited November 26, 2012 by BOMBHEADS

[london-snow]

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Out to 108+ and a slight hint of westward progression compared to the low pressure system...

[Jonan92]

Wow, big improvement I think at 114

Before

Now

The center of the low is gone

[The Eagle]

It's not as bad as it looks. It's so close.

[Matty M]

More disruption to trough, we want that small shortwave breaking from the main trough to head SE into Iberia/France.

[nick sussex]

Yessss!

Trough disruption , game over for mild, good riddance!

[chiffer]

I know your in the middle of discussing the gfs, but I can't wait for the next ecm to see if there's any improvement there.

[karlos1983]

Wow, big improvement I think at 114

Before

Now

The center of the low is gone

and as if by magic, back at 120, heading east lol

[Backtrack]

Changes at 108-

The jet is fanning out the residual energy off the states more SE-

I think this will be a better run-

Also watch the sinking system NE of the UK 1010MB- thats the one UKMO brings south & the GFS doesnt

S

I'm thinking quite the opposite right now? Can't really see this run being any better than the last. The only slight differences I can see is a slightly less intensified low to the south of Greenland which does seem to be losing energy, but I really cannot see this being anywhere near the UKMO.

[andy_leics22]

Time to get the prozac out, that shortwave is going to deliver the knockout punch...

[Weathizard]

Within 120 this is a better run, similar to the 6z but subtle improvements, hope the UKMO holds firm.

That block is being battered, fighting hard though

[london-snow]

Where is that LP gone though it just diminished between 96 & 120 great news but just seems a bit wrong... EXPERTS !!

Edit - There it is at 132+ heading east and strengthening by 138+

Edited November 26, 2012 by london-snow

[ITSY]

Could it? wave of cold heading west, displaced azores heading east...battleground scenario.

[Chris D]

The tension in this thread is unbearable...so many conflicting posts lol! The run looks good so far to me, the block puts up more of a fight - albeit marginally.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Chris D

[SMU]

132 Atlantic in trouble-

-10c isotherm exiting the Norwegian coast-

Could be a big straddler here & snow event

S

[beng]

If the low at 132 stalls to the West, it will pump up the block to the East - getting quite interesting here.

[Backtrack]

Could it? wave of cold heading west, displaced azores heading east...battleground scenario.

Pray for a westward shift, then it is very much game on.

[Ian Brown]

Complex at T126, if only we could that energy to head SE. The Azores High is poking in as a struggle ensues.

[Matty M]

It doesn't matter too much what happens after T120hrs.

This is still a very fluid situation, i think however we are getting more of an idea what might happen, attempts for the Atlantic getting in but hopefully when it comes to it getting pushed southwards and sheared away.

[Jupiters Winter]

Potential undercutting? Battleground UK at T129

[nick sussex]

The GFS now trying to make a meal of this!

Energy underneath not over the top, same old story! zzzzz

Did anyone notice the 1015 mini shortwave to the north which the GFS threw in , that stopped the ridge getting further west!

Edited November 26, 2012 by nick sussex

[Matty M]

Odds on the UKM output failing tonight?? Usually we would have the first few charts out by now!

[EML Network]

LET BATTLE COMMENCE

stale mate ?? The UK sandwiched between HP to the West, LP to the East and dry, sadly I don't think were going to be any the wiser as to the eventual outcome, this is literally on a knife edge, the 12z run IMO will be an improvement on it's 06z ever so slightly, the pendulum swings steadily back IMO were still none the wiser ?

OUT to + 120 and were still in stale mate, possibly a little wintery PPN along East facing coasts.

[Backtrack]

Pretty rubbish, standard UK weather. The block simply cannot handle a low of that magnitude, therefore the block gives up, allowing energy to be sent over the top, squashing the ridge.

Another poor run, and another step towards a chilly snap, rather than a cold spell.

[Iceberg]

upto t144 much stronger northern block imo.

Jet Stream almost getting to an ideal position, certainly better energy placement T96-t120, but not quite there.

However, yet again a very different run by the gfs upto T144, so consistence still isn't its strong point