Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[Hammer]

I think Ian F has already alluded to the 12z Meto run will show a slight back track hasn't he? I am sure he made his comment earlier with the benefit of the output from that. I mean its not like he will be sitting there refreshing his screen like we do for the data to be available to him.

I am prepared for the 12z showing us subtle changes 0-90 hours with variations beyond. Getting colder, then likely less cold for a time.

[Liam J]

Also the GME is run at a higher grid resolution picking up more surface features & detail on the charts, Looks quite similar in comparison.

[SMU]

T36 V T42

The wave at 1020MB over the SE states has more or less initialised ~ 150 Miles/200 miles NW.

Thats where we need to look

S

PS Ian would have poss commented on a 12z UKMO run, but not that it has ACTUALLY changed

Edited November 26, 2012 by Steve Murr

[karlos1983]

Well the 12Z is now rolling out. Fingers crossed, this is a valuable run.

Let us pray.

Looking fairly similar to my untrained eye atm, if anything that low is a bit further east earlier, not 100% sure of the ramifications of that though, I'm almost certain that it's not a good thing though and we would rather it strengthened and went North.

[bluearmy]

the jet is a couple hundred miles west on the day 3 gme wrt the 00z run. i guess that better than the other way round !

[CanadaAl]

Looking fairly similar to my untrained eye atm, if anything that low is a bit further east earlier, not 100% sure of the ramifications of that though, I'm almost certain that it's not a good thing though and we would rather it strengthened and went North.

It's that secondary low we're looking for, around T+100 so a little bit more to wait

[Backtrack]

Looking fairly similar to my untrained eye atm, if anything that low is a bit further east earlier, not 100% sure of the ramifications of that though, I'm almost certain that it's not a good thing though and we would rather it strengthened and went North.

It's only up to T42, at this range it is unlikely you'll notice any significant changes.

[karlos1983]

In this run the low has 1005hpa and is near inland while in the previous run it was 1010hpa and a little to the east

Fair enough, thanks for the graphics backup, I'm relative newby so still learning, feel a bit of a plonker now, just as I was getting my courage to have a go lol, will watch and learn a little longer i think

[bradymk]

the high res NAM and GME look pretty decent, all to play for still imo

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS T51 is on similar track as previous run, I cannot see any sharp details developing in favor of GFS switching anywhere near the UKMO.

[london-snow]

GFS T51 is on similar track as previous run, I cannot see any sharp details developing in favor of GFS switching anywhere near the UKMO.

The crucial period is at 120+ JW where it heads east or north...

[Geordiesnow]

Tbh, if you do read the UKMO's medium range foecasts and Ian Ferguson's post, it does suggest to me the UKMO will backtrack somewhat, I'll be very surprised if it does not.

Lets hope all of our efforts chasing this cold does not in the end just turns out to be a chilly spell of weather from a weak and short lasting Northerly flow.

Does not appear to be any real changes so far on this run, see what happens next. I have a feeling what it might show though.

[ITSY]

If anything, even by +78, things are a tad further east across the Northern Hemisphere. that Canadian Low is slightly further NE, the cold pool in NW Europe is further NE and the arctic high is slightly further NE too...could all of course be a complete red herring but I think this run will sustain the GFS view of the last few days

[karlos1983]

looks further North and west (albeit slight) at +84, than at +90 on the 6z?

[swfc]

Everything looking more eastward and the low just coming under the tip of greenland.Looks like this run continues the turnaround so far

[Jonan92]

The only good thing is that the center of the low is further nort

[Matty M]

At T96hrs almost identical to the 6z GFS run.

[Backtrack]

looks further North and west (albeit slight) at +84, than at +90 on the 6z?

Ever so slightly, but it's pointless studying a westward shift of 20 miles tbh. Our main attention needs to be turned toward the Canadian low, and so far there has been little change.

If it's of any difference the low to the tip of Greenland is shallower, can only be positive, I guess.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Backtrack

[karlos1983]

Ever so slightly, but it's pointless studying a westward shift of 20 miles tbh. Our main attention needs to be turned toward the Canadian low, and so far there has been little change.

Ok, thanks Backtrack

[nick sussex]

Given what the ECM subjected us to yesterday and the GFS 00hrs run of today at least the block has a chance here.

The block is far enough west to put some pressure on that troughing near Greenland,not bad so far.

Also the shortwave to the north, will this verify? if not it could look alot better.

Edited November 26, 2012 by nick sussex

[Matty M]

The block is battling so hard against the Low over Newfoundland at T102hrs.

Slight better set up over Europe with less short-wave disruption but very small details.

[ITSY]

in case this goes bottoms up, just remember this is the first projected cold spell of the winter. we still have 3/4months left guys!

[karlos1983]

The block is battling so hard against the Low over Newfoundland at T102hrs.

Slight better set up over Europe with less short-wave disruption but very small details.

I'm glad you said that about the Short waves, I picked that up at 102, is it not those small details that can have a big influence?

[Mucka]

One improvement is better disruption of the low but I don't think it is enough to make the difference.

[SMU]

Changes at 108-

The jet is fanning out the residual energy off the states more SE-

I think this will be a better run-

Also watch the sinking system NE of the UK 1010MB- thats the one UKMO brings south & the GFS doesnt

S

Edited November 26, 2012 by Steve Murr