That sounds like your siding with the ukmo ed? The 06z is a much improvement on the 0z , block holds longer this wkend, then the vortex segment/low over the Atlantic looks much weaker and further south.
Not necessarily - more a halfway house that eventually will lead to a suspected block. The GFS
shows us a pathway that the complex computer is programmed to work out. I can almost see the smoke coming out of it coping with this set up. I don't think we should look past T+144 presently.
Do I think that the background signals are leading to a more organised vortex? The answer is a resounding no. We are looking at the split vortex transferring to a vortex displaced towards Eurasia eventually.
How we get there is where difficulty arises and no wonder we see different outputs and no consistency. I am wondering whether the recent strat updates to the UKMO
model may be beneficial in this scenario though - because it is the transfer of energy in the upper atmosphere that will be driving the tropospheric pattern right now.
Edit The ECM
is certainly not a raging positive AO
pattern by the end of the run either.
Will look more fully tonight at all teleconnections I think.
Edited by chionomaniac, 26 November 2012 - 11:04 .