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Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward


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#421 Frosty.

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:49

The 06z goes the same way as the 0z, a strongly positive NAO developing.


I don't understand why you wish for that sort of rubbish and I don't think the outlook will be decided by the gfs 06z op run either, there is still plenty of other evidence in favour of a cold blocked spell which you always appear to ignore.

Edited by Frosty039, 26 November 2012 - 10:51 .

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#422 Ramp

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:49

Is the delay in GP's winter forecast due to doubts how this will pan out?

#423 london-snow

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:50

Just wondering if anyone can provide me with a link to the 00z as i was not about early to view be interesting to compare both between 00z & 06z between +90 & +150?

Thanks in advance Posted Image

Edited by london-snow, 26 November 2012 - 10:51 .

Terrible winter 2013/2014 thus far. Hoping 2014 starts on a snowy beginning..

#424 Daniel Smith

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:51

Personally i just think all the models are underestimating the block if it were that convinced of breaking the block then why do the models other than the UKMO go round in circles?


Either the UKMO hasn't picked up the new signal yet, OR it's sticking with the cold because that's whats going to happen. We wont know until next week I suppose

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#425 Liam J

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:51

I'm sorry, I must be viewing a totally different 6z to some of you - ignoring timings etc did the Atlantic break through or not on this run?

#426 Zakos

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:51

DO NOT BE TOOK IN BY THE DEFAULT GFS FI

Always has a zonal outlook, goes against every single teleconnection out there, high to our south east ??? Come on get reall gfs, no support long term whatsoever ever . Look forward to the 12z


I totally agree. GFS completely defaulting, goes against all logic and reason.

look how the Arctic high randomly dissapears as soon as the low res starts.Comical. I seriously dont understand why the GFS even goes out to 384 hours.

#427 Jonan92

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:52

Just wondering if anyone can provide me with a link to the 00z as i was not about early to view be interesting to compare both between 00z & 06z between +90 & +150?

Thanks in advance Posted Image


http://www.meteociel...gfse_cartes.php

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#428 bluearmy

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:52

is there a delay? i rather doubt anything you are seeing at the moment would change the thoughts for winter in general. the extended ecm de bilt ens remain cold and wintry. no doubt london will be closer to the less cold air on a ne/sw split so may not be as impressive.

extended naefs remains with high anomoly around s greenland and low anomoly to our south.

#429 Iceaxecrampon

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:53

Good Grief.. I know the GFS is supposedly renowned for being the most successful at picking up early trends. BUT if this is right
it smacks in the face of the seasoned experts around who have strongly touted a blocked and colder outlook as we
move into the new month. This is as zonal as it gets? What is causing this change to come about. OR is this outlook completely
wrong ?

Posted Image


Yes - a truly disappointing and confusing 06Z on this damned rollercoaster - the cold plunge has gone further east- time for the GFS to make it's mind up as the 30th that even seasoned members were forecasting snowmaggedon is nearing reliability - here's hoping for an upgrade.

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#430 Polar Maritime

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:53

Still no change, remember its the 06z..

gfs still doesn't know what to make of the blocking, But the firm horse is, it's going to evolve into cold/blocked pattern this week Posted Image
There is no point in looking at details or breakdowns, until the models have collected themselves and got to grips with the pattern change.

The cold has not even got here yet.

Edited by Polar Maritime, 26 November 2012 - 10:55 .

The countdown has begun.


#431 Daniel Smith

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:54

I don't think we can say the GFS is just defaulting in this case. The low to the West of Greenland heads Eastwards at T120 - T126, that's not exactly in the outer depths of FI. Whilst the GFS may have a zonal default bias, to say that's all this is, is ludicrous. Explain the ECM, the first model to pick up on this?

I'm not saying we should panic just yet, the UKMO has remained solid and consistent which has to stand for something, but to simply say the GFS is wrong because it looks like its defaulting is ridiculous.

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#432 The Eagle

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:55

Anyone who can't see the subtle change in the short term pre 96hrs on the 6z must be blind. It's clearly gone toward the UKMO but it's not there yet.
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#433 Zakos

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:55

I'm sorry, I must be viewing a totally different 6z to some of you - ignoring timings etc did the Atlantic break through or not on this run?


True, it does break through eventually. But, I ask you,is the pattern at 96 hours better than on the 00z or not?

#434 Paul

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:56

Is the delay in GP's winter forecast due to doubts how this will pan out?


No

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#435 chionomaniac

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:58

That sounds like your siding with the ukmo ed? The 06z is a much improvement on the 0z , block holds longer this wkend, then the vortex segment/low over the Atlantic looks much weaker and further south.


Not necessarily - more a halfway house that eventually will lead to a suspected block. The GFS shows us a pathway that the complex computer is programmed to work out. I can almost see the smoke coming out of it coping with this set up. I don't think we should look past T+144 presently.

Do I think that the background signals are leading to a more organised vortex? The answer is a resounding no. We are looking at the split vortex transferring to a vortex displaced towards Eurasia eventually.

How we get there is where difficulty arises and no wonder we see different outputs and no consistency. I am wondering whether the recent strat updates to the UKMO model may be beneficial in this scenario though - because it is the transfer of energy in the upper atmosphere that will be driving the tropospheric pattern right now.

Edit The ECM is certainly not a raging positive AO pattern by the end of the run either.

Will look more fully tonight at all teleconnections I think.

Edited by chionomaniac, 26 November 2012 - 11:04 .

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

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#436 Nicholas B

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:59

Just one thing to throw in. How many times have seen the models going for a cold for uk blocked pattern only to drop the idea for a couple of days and then pick it back up again?
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#437 Rollo

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:03

What's forecast ?

His full winter forecast not his pre-season thoughts.
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#438 Iceaxecrampon

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:03

What's forecast ?


Last closed thread - some reliable names on here had the 30th pretty much nailed on looking at last weeks charts and getting worked up into a froth.....

Meto 5 dayer for Cumbria freezing level dropping to 300m sleet this am and heavy snow on the tops with a nice windchill.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Loft Crag - Langdale Valley - The English Lake District - February 1990 - 4pm - Alone - Dark - A total whiteout - My usual descent route into Mickleden on the flanks of Harrison Stickle was totally lost.Just two days of unexpected snow and subzero temperatures had formed an angular slab of pack ice obliterating the path.Crampons dug in - front pointing all the way across and down - One slip and it would be nearly 1000ft down into the aptly named Dungeon Ghyll.... The longest hour of my life..... Into the Void indeed. 

"I walked through blizzards"

 


#439 WhiteFox

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:03

The point I was making is that we've had enough consistency for colder weather across the UK that the height anomaly charts have indicated this and the MO have even upgraded their thoughts on cold in their longer range outputs. If we see everything collapse, it's not exactly going to be a minor c*ck up is it?


In the grand scheme of things, yes! The point I'm making is that we've seen this many times before, usually several times each winter and this is followed by "The credibility of x model is shredded, nobody will ever believe it again" (often followed by fourteen exclamation marks).

The point I'm making, which you actually allude to yourself, is that the setup is very fine between the block holding and breaking. If it holds, we get a continuation of cold conditions and if not, we get more mobile Atlantic flows. The difference in the the actual forecasts at the critical point is tiny, but the difference in outcome is huge. I don't think the Met will bin the code and start again if the forecast is incorrect!
I also know that the next time we face such uncertainty, the same debates will be had and whichever model gets the small early forecast wrong will be dubbed as the worst model ever.

The only certainty in model watching is that the hyperbole index will rise towards hitherto unseen levels; the equation is:

HI = f squared x (f squared/root(tx))

Where:
f = Forecast 850s
tx = time period
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#440 Dave Kightley

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:05

Either the UKMO hasn't picked up the new signal yet, OR it's sticking with the cold because that's whats going to happen. We wont know until next week I suppose


To be honest with you i don't even think there is a signal to be picked up before 144 hours anyway. With so much twist and turns upto 144h. Most models are really not that far off to be honest to muck about so much the first place upto as i say 144 hours.. There are differences but no treason why runs should break the block and come up with all sorts of rubbish when the UKMO has been consistent. You could say maybe a signal been picked up but what signal if the runs are changing like disco lights upto 144 and now they look cold.... Why show stupid crap the first place... Either a signal for later next week or drunk!

Edited by Dave Kightley, 26 November 2012 - 11:26 .