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Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

gfs ecm ukmo gem bom naefs

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#261 Matty M

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:00

The ECM is not too surprising.

The shift happened overnight.

Last nights 12z ECM Ensembles were brilliant.

However there was a big change this morning.

And this has been compounded by this 12z ECM run.

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#262 Ice BIast

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:01

Uh oh, the JMA follows the ECM, and its not a bad model.
Posted Image

#263 johnholmes

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:01

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.


Ian if you really believe this then that is fine you are perfectly entitled to your opinion. However I would like some 'meat' so to speak to show your theory is sound, charts or more explanation please?

Edited by Paul, 25 November 2012 - 19:11 .


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#264 The Eagle

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:01

For:

UKMO
GFS operational

Against

ECM
BOM
NOGAPS
GEM
CFS


Ho hum...not going to say writing is on the wall. But it nearly is. If the GFS operational goes the same way on the 18z that would be that really. Going with one model against the rest would be silly after that.
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#265 Dexter29

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:02

I know it's only 1 op run but can the ECM be so wrong at that timeframe?

Has the ECM ever been so off the mark before at that timeframe?



#266 lorenzo

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:02

ECM piling in with the drama at 120, then better at 144..then disappointing from a cold perspective. Still think FI is 96 hrs out at this point, prior to the Greenland progression ECM making more of the LP in the North Pacific than GFS / UKMO. Why is it always a Sunday when we get this without the forensic benefit of CPC analysis !
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ECH1-96.gif gfsnh-0-96.png UN96-21.gif


GFS anomaly for the last 12z runs posted yesterday demonstrated a leaning to deepen lows at that South Greenland tip., whether this actually stalls their eastward progression or not - unsure. If so the ECM solution shown would be logical.

As GP said what seems like days ago the operational runs are best ignored at times, albeit we haven't been igoring them because more often than not over recent days they have showed us some great eye candy progressions. I agree the winning model getting it this wrong, at this range unlikely, but perhaps not impossible.

The game over post I do not agree with, yes many have been chasing cold evolutions.. for me there is still plenty of cold in play.

Edit to add charts

Edited by lorenzo, 25 November 2012 - 19:08 .


#267 Mark Bayley

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:02

Yep, and whilst the ECM has been a little bit inconsistent in its outputs, it has been consistent in sending that trough into Scandi for many runs now, the GFS agrees with this(I still don't understand how the GFS has backed the UKMO in people's eyes) so whilst the UKMO has perhaps rather surprisingly has not backed down, the ECM has not either, still I did not expect to see a horror show of a run like this though.

The UKMO was nearly on the money in the last cold snap but for a late change of a shortwave heading from the Labrador Sea into Greenland which killed off the Greenland high much quicker than it should so it will be interesting too see which model is right on this occasion. UKMO is really the only model I can see which has got snow potential within 120 hours, the GFS is not cold enough for low level snow until a later timeframe.

Of course, if the ECM is too keen on sending a bit too much energy further East, then the rest of its output will be wrong, however if the GFS/UKMO have not picked this up, then their outputs will be totally wrong! The GFS only backs the UKMO up regarding the Atlantic ridge but still disagrees with the positioning of the trough/low pressure system towards our east which determines how cold any cold set up gets!


If you look at the NH view you will see the UKMO is similar to the GFS in that they both send the low up western greeland, while the ECM just sends it straight through.
Posted Image
Posted Image

To be fair the ECM is still quite good, sure in the shorter term it is not as good as the UKMO and GFS, however upstream blocking remains, the PV remains disrupted, and heights are again building over Greenland towards the end of the run. This is supported by current stratospheric output, and some of the MJO forecasts as my post yesterday alluded to.

Edited by Mark Bayley, 25 November 2012 - 19:05 .

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#268 Ian Brown

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:03

Ah you haven't changed have you Posted Image . So days of excellent operational outputs,ever improving ensemble suites, excellent composites all showing high latitude blocking and a Euro trough + all the info regarding the teleconnections that GP, Chiono and others have shared should all be binned because of a couple of poor operational runs?! No thank you. The ECM may be right, it may have picked upon a trend, but "game over"? You are on nothing more than a wind up.


What I'm saying is that it is game over for this cold spell if the ECM, NOGAPS,BOM, GEM, and most of the GFS ensembles verify. Anyone who has been around any length of time will know that getting the Arctic High into play without shortwaves getting in the way has been nigh on impossible since January 1987.

If the link fails you are not looking at a quick second bite of the cherry because the JET HAS BROKEN THROUGH AT NORTHERN LATITUDES and you are then dependent on the next pattern change down the line, whenever that may come.

#269 January Snowstorm

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:03

I really cannot believe this and others, every single day if you listen to the experienced ones they say do not get hung up on one run,

Am sorry but the ECM this morning and last night had the same trend
Also a lot of the minor models back the ECM
Also the ensembles have been trending away from severe cold for several days now
So it's not one run its been building for sevral days and this is the climax of it.


You are right though we were all excited an hour ago so there is still hope the UKMO has it right
I suppose the reason there is disappointment is the odds of a cold spell currently stand around 30% at bext whereas 2 days ago they pbly stood at 85%
So disappointment is well founded, but this could easily swing back to cold again
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#270 emotional rollercoaster

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:04

if the ECM and the minor models are correct its time to call the GFS and UKMO cannon fodder

ECM T144 is such a typical chart for this part of the world, ridge toppling such a common synoptic


not at all it does not end the cold outlook it takes longer to get there.
the heights to our north are well and truely embedded i think post like this just proves that some just cant understand that models do wobble.

tomorrow will see the return of a more stable model runs,
look at this mornings and lastnights ecm bom and jma runs total flip its a wobble bigtime.
1963 can we acheive this again?
will our sun bring us the 80s winters and settled summers will thunderstorms return to the uk summers things have changed in the past and things will change in the future...........to be continued......

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#271 Paul

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:05

Any danger we can discuss what is actually in the models rather than so many of these, 'winter is over', 'told you so', angst filled, over the top, dramatic posts which are either designed to create reaction (maybe some want to annoy, maybe some are desperate to be told that all will be ok and that they can build a snow man afterall so post as negatively as possible in the hope that others will disagree), whatever the reason though, some objectivity and model related discussion wouldn't go amiss.

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#272 LomondSnowstorm

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:06

For:

UKMO
GFS operational

Against

ECM
BOM
NOGAPS
GEM
CFS


Ho hum...not going to say writing is on the wall. But it nearly is. If the GFS operational goes the same way on the 18z that would be that really. Going with one model against the rest would be silly after that.

I'd like to add NAEFS to the 'for' camp, whatever it's 'for', because it certainly looks more like the GFS and the UKMO than the ECM plus the minors.
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#273 emotional rollercoaster

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:06

Am sorry but the ECM this morning and last night had the same trend
Also a lot of the minor models back the ECM
Also the ensembles have been trending away from severe cold for several days now
So it's not one run its been building for sevral days and this is the climax of it.


You are right though we were all excited an hour ago so there is still hope the UKMO has it right
I suppose the reason there is disappointment is the odds of a cold spell currently stand around 30% at bext whereas 2 days ago they pbly stood at 85%
So disappointment is well founded, but this could easily swing back to cold again


dissagree none of the models showed such a dramatic shift and teleconnections favour more than the wobbly ecm ect ect.
1963 can we acheive this again?
will our sun bring us the 80s winters and settled summers will thunderstorms return to the uk summers things have changed in the past and things will change in the future...........to be continued......

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#274 Liam J

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:06

For:

UKMO
GFS operational

Against

ECM
BOM
NOGAPS
GEM
CFS


Ho hum...not going to say writing is on the wall. But it nearly is. If the GFS operational goes the same way on the 18z that would be that really. Going with one model against the rest would be silly after that.


I'm afraid you can now add the JMA to the against list. Posted Image

Only can the ECM cause so much frantic panic in this thread, we all know how good the ECM is.... The changes became apparent overnight with further back tracking on the 12z. The ECM has a massive amount of support this evening, regrettably.

Edited by Liam J, 25 November 2012 - 19:08 .


#275 Frosty.

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:08

countryfile will save the day... or night even, we still have an excellent ukmo, thats 2 peachy ukmo runs today, as yesterday, and a good gfs 00z followed by an excellent 6z followed by a stonking gfs 12z. The ecm has been wobbling like a jelly in the last 2 or 3 days and apart from 1 mega run early in the week, has never really been fully onboard.

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#276 Bristle boy

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:08

Time to bring out the NW 'Big Guns' to restore some calm and rationality, before this thread descends into model output anarchy!

Is GP about this eve?

IF some of the models have picked up on a pattern change before the previously forecasted one has even begun then it just goes to show this forecasting business is just as difficult now as it was in the days before super computers. And would represent one of the biggest model changes on here since i first started viewing.
BUT as the weekend and following week still hasnt even arrived, in real time, only time will tell.
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#277 cyclonic happiness

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:09

And there is still this to fall back on to, it's been hinting colder and colder over the last few days, if the models can flip this far this quickly, they can flip back again, more run needed Posted Image



"UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2012 to Sunday 9 Dec 2012:

A mixture of sunshine and wintry showers at first. The showers mostly affecting eastern areas, with the west tending to see the best of the drier conditions. The heaviest showers will be towards the northeast, falling as snow over higher ground. Windy at times, with the risk of gales in exposure. It will be rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and icy patches. Becoming cold as we continue into December, with widespread overnight frosts. Further wintry showers, especially in the north and east, where accumulations over high ground are likely with snow perhaps falling to low levels. Also the potential for some more widespread outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow, especially towards the southwest."

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#278 chionomaniac

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:10

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.


No, this has nothing to do with the cold upper/ mid strat - this is still disconnected from the lower strat and troposphere.

Ian you are acting like the ECM ouput is a fait accompli - it is not. However the modelling of how the vortex splits and reforms is always going to be problematical as we have segments of energy detached from their usual positions. I think the ECM is too quick in reforming these segments and that we are not going to enter a period of long term zonality as you suspect.

It is still likely that in the 10-15 day time range that we see a displacement of the vortex that is eventually likely to have a bearing tropospherically - leading to further blocking patterns - most likely somewhere over the Canadian sector - possibly leading to a west based -ve NAO. How we travel there is still up for negotiation with the output.

This isn't game over by a long stretch.

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#279 jethro

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:11

The time to say 'it's game over' is after the event, not before. You're all talking about weather a week away, a lot can happen in a week. There's a reason why people like JH say don't get hung up on every individual run, take note of that advice - it's probably the most important advice to take for all you model watchers.

It's going to be a long winter.....
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#280 Mr Frost

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Posted 25 November 2012 - 19:11

Ian if you really believe this then that is fine you are perfectly entitled to your opinion. However I would like some 'meat' so to speak to show your theory is sound, charts or more explanation please?


Great post John.

Ian, we all know you are an extremely intelligent guy and can read the charts as good as anyone on this forum and beyond so please don't revert back to using nonsense like game over and what not. I actually enjoy having you around, it takes me back to when I was a younger lad on the BBC weather forum! You are a pantomime villain but when you are honest and not looking to stir many folk learn from you're posts.

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Edited by Paul, 25 November 2012 - 19:13 .