South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 24th 2012>

[abruzzi spur]

Well I don't agree, yes I maybe an amateur and slowly learning. But that it is a weather discussion forum and should welcome all comments from beginners to seniors. It adds to the atmosphere aslong as its model related

No, fair enough Dexter, I was talking only from my experience because I know what I posted

AS

[Dexter29]

No, fair enough Dexter, I was talking only from my experience because I know what I posted

AS

Sorry AS I just realised I had a small rant there over a model thread - lol

I guess I'm just frustrated as I wanted to offer my contributions to that thread. Even if insignificant.

[john pike]

ukmo raw fax charts

look at bottom chart on right

that has a huge high pressure block in the atlantic

also we are still under a cold north easterly flow

fax charts tonight and tomorrow will be key

[shotski]

hi shotski

updated fax comes out around 10.30-11.00

i am not convinced on ecm run

reckon will look different tomorrow

will update the charts later but i would trust the fax

over ecm and gfs anyday

Hi John

I hope your wright on this one but I have a bad feeling, even the 0z ECM was hinting at this. Go through the latest UKmet on northern hem and you will see

the evolution from T96 to T120 looks wrong, the low off canada just gets sucked back west.

[Mark Neal.]

ukmo raw fax charts

look at bottom chart on right

that has a huge high pressure block in the atlantic

also we are still under a cold north easterly flow

fax charts tonight and tomorrow will be key

Agreed John! Fax charts will be interesting, im guessing they will go with there own model UKMO. I think the folks down at Exeter will await tomorrow before either carrying on with there outlook with cold & risk of snow, or perhaps if ECM has started a trend it will be backtrack, who knows..

Interesting, but cautious times for coldies!

[john pike]

seen this before when the charts are confused

the block to our east is very strong and the main models will struggle

will be more confident tonight but more certain tomorrow night

[Eskimo]

Can I place a bet on the ECM backtracking its ideas tomorrow and pulling out a stonker? Can I also bet the 18z tonight will produce a very good run?

[john pike]

what i will do later is put the 120 fax with the 120 gfs and ecm so you will see the difference

Can I place a bet on the ECM backtracking its ideas tomorrow and pulling out a stonker? Can I also bet the 18z tonight will produce a very good run?

no

[Dexter29]

Can I place a bet on the ECM backtracking its ideas tomorrow and pulling out a stonker? Can I also bet the 18z tonight will produce a very good run?

I really hope so PerfectStorm. Fingers and toes crossed

[Eskimo]

what i will do later is put the 120 fax with the 120 gfs and ecm so you will see the difference

no

You know it will be good tonight and tomorrow, watch this space

[shotski]

When do the ECM Ensemble's come out, will be interesting to see how much support the op has.

[Mark Neal.]

When do the ECM Ensemble's come out, will be interesting to see how much support the op has.

Now they are coming out! http://meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1

Hope that helps.

[shotski]

Now they are coming out! http://meteociel.com...=1&map=0&type=1

Hope that helps.

Cheers Mark.

Looking like the ensemble members are supporting the opp ?

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

if you run 192-240 ecm just delays the cold if its right

so not great but not the end of the world either

[Ice Day]

ukmo raw fax charts

look at bottom chart on right

that has a huge high pressure block in the atlantic

also we are still under a cold north easterly flow

fax charts tonight and tomorrow will be key

Evening John. Do you know what time the fax charts are out tonight?

[tinybill]

looks like us on the east coast by friday will soon be geting the rock salt ready as the country file , and the models look good for some white stuff coming down the east coast

[chionomaniac]

AS do you know what? I posted on that thread last night and again just now, both were deleted. I don't get it! I was discussing models and not at all off topic.

And yet there is over the past hour - arguments/ toys out of pram posts still on there.

Do they only let regulars post?

Anyhow I shall not put a post on there again.

If you actually bothered to read the pm I sent you yesterday, dexter, you may actually find out why one of your posts was deleted.

[Mrsf16]

Im still sticking with my prediction of 30th November for snow

Oh, that's based on nothing but hope and desperation, no science

Edited November 25, 2012 by Mrsf16

[A.J]

Im still sticking with my prediction of 30th November for snow

Oh, that's based on nothing but hope and desperation, no science

Those 5 words sum up a lot of the model output thread at the moment

[Mark Neal.]

looks like us on the east coast by friday will soon be geting the rock salt ready as the country file , and the models look good for some white stuff coming down the east coast

Yes although ECM, would make that a short lived affair and only a very short amount of time to see anything wintry, ie wintry showers for eastern areas, while the ECM flattens the pattern very sharpish, anyway thats open for debate, and i for one am not expecting it to be that progressive as the ECM shows.

[Jason T]

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

if you run 192-240 ecm just delays the cold if its right

so not great but not the end of the world either

Amazing really John that output all week been nearly all we love for a winter output, I found the Ecm quite bullish with regards to moving that mighty block to the East. I still believe Tomorrows runs will become more stable and build a much clearer picture as the week progresses.

[abruzzi spur]

just popped out for my regular 'what's happening' session and there is a roughly 2/3rds moon giving off loads of light and, bizarrely, most of the clouds seem to be behind the moon ('behind' being a relative term in the space/time debate). I am now concerned that either (a) the moon is smaller and closer than years of science have posited, or (alternatively) it's the same size as previously thought and any moment now there is going to be a bit of a bang.

Watch this spa.....

Edited November 25, 2012 by abruzzi spur

[john pike]

Evening John. Do you know what time the fax charts are out tonight?

hi ice they normally come out 10.30-11 the dates that we need

i will have a gamble of ecm being wrong

also i just read the posts on the model thread

wheres the nearest tower block

hi abruzzi

i gather you just read that thread as well

[abruzzi spur]

also i just read the posts on the model thread

wheres the nearest tower block

hi abruzzi

i gather you just read that thread as well

I did John, like dipping into a not so parallel universe!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all.

The current weather may feel like the pits and with the new working week almost upon us, I want to bring you some good news.

Needless to say, as a model host, gottolovethisweather, I feel I should update you, as to my thoughts on where the weather might be heading in the coming fortnight. Put simply, I prefer to base my thoughts upon viewing consecutive runs and ensembles from the GFS 12z runs, so I will attempt to do just that.

I am simply going to use two locations, in order to keep things reasonably short. London and East Sussex are my regions of choice and I will be referring to the trends from the previous five days with special attention paid to the T850s, subsequent 2m Temps and finally the likelihood of precipitation.

Firstly, I will delve into the trend for London from 21^st, 23^rd and 25^th November.

T850s (UPPER AIR TEMPS), from the most recent to the least recent.

2m Temps (VIRTUALLY AIR TEMPS), again from the most recent to the least recent.

My final tool is the precipitation trend, i.e. will it be cold enough and more importantly, is there any likelihood of SNOW in the city of London?

Finally, I would like to have an attempt at interpreting East Sussex's trend, again based on ensembles from the 21^st, 23^rd and 25^th November, respectively.

T850s (UPPER AIR TEMPS), from the most recent to the least recent.

2m Temps (VIRTUALLY AIR TEMPS), again from the most recent to the least recent.

Finally, will it be cold enough and is there any likelihood of SNOW for the county of East Sussex , part of which, is on the coast?

]

My overall conclusion, based on the general trending from the GFS 12z output is that London will be cold enough at the surface for settling SNOW from late PM on the 28^th November. I generally expect Air Temperatures to be no higher than about 5c with an outside chance of colder Temperatures developing from the 1^st December for just a few days. The highest probability of city SNOWFALL is currently during the period 30^th November into 1^st December coming courtesy of a trough feature and subsequently from wintry showers during the first few days of December.

The case for East Sussex being broadly similar to that of London but a higher chance (70 to 80%) of wintriness before the main risk of the 30^th November into 1^st December, coming about from showers during the 29^th and overnight into the 30^th November. December, then follows a similar trend to that, which I stated above.

I believe I can give my forecast a confidence level of approximately 60 to 70%, due to a pretty clear-cut trend as head towards the beginning of meteorological winter. In my view, FI (fantasy island) is currently sitting somewhere between the dates of 2^nd December and 3^rd December, which can only be a good thing.

An interesting time ahead of us, once the residual fronts clear in the early part of the following week.

Edited November 25, 2012 by gottolovethisweather