South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 12th 2012>

[Snowangel-MK]

Standing here in the grounds of Warwick Castle must admit a bit nippy in the shade but still blue sky with a bit of cloud.

Oww, I love Warwick Castle, I haven't been since the addition of the Merlin Dragon Tower so I really want to go again to see this...

http://www.warwick-castle.com/explore-castle/merlin-the-dragon-tower.aspx

[Nick F]

Nice to get rid of the dull, misty and murky dross.

The other day I could barely see more than quarter a mile away out the window here in my 10th floor office in Hounslow, today I can see central London, The North Downs to the southest and Chilterns to the northwest.

Edited November 18, 2012 by Nick F

[Mark Neal.]

Nice day for a spot of ballooning. Plenty of balloons up making the most of this weather. Temp 6.5c. Still some frost patches on roofs which haven't reached sunlight today.

[john pike]

just for viewing purposes only

from 06 run and are nice

just to show how uncertain things are at present and see how quick europe cools down

i am expecting more interest in the charts from monday onwards

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

-2.9c low overnight, frosty this morning and a sparkling sunny day so far.

[Coast]

A totally lush day across Sussex and some of the nicest weather for a single day in 2012!

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16669-18112012776/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16668-18112012778/

What dosen't really show in this shot from the phone, is the net of spiders webs that covered the ground on The Downs and how it rippled in the sunshine like a silver sea . Very little wind, just wonderful! I can face the grey again now, thank you weather gods!

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16670-18112012780/

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

8.9c max today, must admit it felt a lot colder than that.

[Snowangel-MK]

It's been a really lovely day here but the temperature is dropping like a stone tonight..... 2.7 °C atm

[Eskimo]

0.4C here, will be freezing in the next hour.

[Floatylight]

done the full shabang in the end,must be the day for roast chickens then?

temp dropping quite quick here too.wonder what tommorow will bring??

[Eskimo]

done the full shabang in the end,must be the day for roast chickens then?

temp dropping quite quick here too.wonder what tommorow will bring??

Sunny skies at first but increasing cloud from the south

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Gfs 12z run is a big warm outlier from 30th

More ensembles heading towards -10 line. Nice ;-)

Temp drop still there from 27th

[Eskimo]

In the minuses for only the 4th time this autumn, -0.2C here now

[Ben_Cambs]

Was a truly fine day for the time of year. Temperature maxed out at around 8C with a little cloud building in the afternoon. Currently 2.1C and falling. Here's a model summary based mainly on tonight's output:

After a chilly night tonight with temperatures falling to -3C in some areas, cloud cover will increase tomorrow and light but increasingly patchy rain will affect the region in the afternoon. Temperatures maxing between 10-12C with an increasing wind; gusts up to 35-40mph are possible. A cloudy night into Tuesday will prevent temperatures falling too far, remaining above 7C or so. Tuesday will start off dry and cloudy, but as the day progresses a band of rain will cross the region leading to a wet end to the day. Max temperatures on Tuesday between 10-12C again, with gusts of up to 40mph in places. The rain may not clear the SE of the region until the early hours of Wednesday, night-time temperature again not falling below 7-9C. Wednesday (once the rain has cleared in the early hours) and Thursday will be dry days as well-illustrated by this chart:

UKMO T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

A ridge of HP will keep the weather dry over the region through these days, which is likely to be a total contrast compared to the weather across the western side of the UK on these days. It will be mainly cloudy with some sunny intervals possible especially further south and east. Temperatures on both days will be around average for the time of year, maxing out around 9-11C and in any clearer spells at night falling to around 4-6C. The wind will also be noticeably lighter on these days.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

The ridge is pushed eastwards by Friday with more unsettled weather taking over. GFS and UKMO are very similar, a spell of rain would push eastwards during Friday afternoon. ECM has more emphasis however on a low in the Bay of Biscay tracking north-eastwards, this may result in a wetter scenario, particularly for the south of the region, the timing is also different; the rain would continue across some parts into the early hours of Saturday. All three models show Saturday to be a dry and sunny day. Temperatures would be slightly below average for the time of year.

GFS T+168: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

ECM T+168: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

There is a huge difference between the models at this point in their runs. GFS has a ridge of HP building in towards the second half of next weekend providing drier, settled weather (though it does get flattened out the day after) while the ECM has another area of LP, with the centre crossing the north of the UK, which would result in wet and windy conditions for the second half of next weekend. Both models have temperatures again slightly below average.

ECM T+240 0z ens: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

Signal for an area of HP to the west of the UK, with cool winds feeding around the top of the HP. Temperatures would be around average or slightly below with the risk of frost at night and it would be mainly dry.

GEFS (T850) for Buckinghamshire: http://cdn.nwstatic....inghamshire.png

A cooling trend in the long term after a mild start to the week.

Edit: Already temperatures around freezing in some areas, so temperatures could fall to -3C which is a lot lower than being predicted by the models for example.

Edited November 18, 2012 by Ben_Cambs

[Mark Neal.]

done the full shabang in the end,must be the day for roast chickens then?

temp dropping quite quick here too.wonder what tommorow will bring??

Monday ?

Down to 1.2c here, cloud starting to filter in now though.

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

Expect temps to go up when cloud arrives from the west

Chilly at present though

[Summer of 76]

Oww, I love Warwick Castle, I haven't been since the addition of the Merlin Dragon Tower so I really want to go again to see this...

http://www.warwick-c...agon-tower.aspx

They have dropped the price to £3.00 a person to get into the Merlin Dragon Tower

Whilst I was there I was asked for a winter forecast and said 'Look East' and this happend

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16675-pb180005/

Edited November 18, 2012 by Chris Mantle

[Snowangel-MK]

They have dropped the price to £3.00 a person to get into the Merlin Dragon Tower

Whilst I was there I was asked for a winter forecast and said 'Look East' and this happend

Excellent...love it

I think the other stocks are more my height....and we should all let that little drunkard person be a lesson to us that too much mulled wine makes your fingers swell up and turn pink

[john pike]

hi all be back about 12

waiting the updated fax for friday

however looking at the updated ones today for wednesday

shows the block to our east-north east much stronger

will update later

[Eskimo]

hi all be back about 12

waiting the updated fax for friday

however looking at the updated ones today for wednesday

shows the block to our east-north east much stronger

will update later

Thanks John!

[Mark Neal.]

We managed to get down to 0.2c this evening. Before cloud started to show up although still clear spells and temp just able freezing 0.7c.

[Eskimo]

-0.1C here, fluctuating between -0.2C and +0.4C

[john pike]

monday

dry in the morning but getting wet from the west as we go through the day

winday but temps low teens wont feel warm in the rain

monday night

wet winday and hate to say this word mild

tuesday

more wet and winday weather mid teens again

wont feel it in the wind and rain

still rain about some heavy

less wind so temperatures a tad lower although 8 degrees ish

wednesday

some showers about although less frequent

still breezy temps around 10-11ish

thursday looks breezy but possibly dry

slightly lower temps

back into single figures

we might even see some sun

friday looks like showers on and off throughout the day

still a southerly airflow so chilly around 10 degrees roughly

the block to our east-north east has build and is getting closer to us

what we need is to see that high pressure to our north east push a

little more west

that should then push us into a north easterly flow

tomorrows runs may be interesting

i cannot take the ensembles seriously at present

too much scatter and only 5 days out

[john pike]

gfs is showing this

so i am not ignoring them because they are showing warm

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Nice sunrise here this morning. I should be out somewhere to see it properly.

Here are a few pictures from being out and about yesterday. I think the time for the leaf colours has peaked now, as too many have fallen and the frosts will accelerate the process.

I'm glad to see Coast was out and about in his locality yesterday - I feared he might have made an excursion to the Essex Coast.

Edited November 19, 2012 by Steve C