South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 12th 2012>

[john pike]

still trending colder from 27th onwards

less warmer ensembles showing now

this shows a good easterly flow

i still reckon an easterly flow is starting to look good

the block to our east is getting gradually closer

2010 anyone

also the problem with the mod thread is people post to their own area

an easterly or north easterly flow benefits us but not everyone in the uk

a northerly effects a lot of the uk but not so good here

stick with the regionals

[gottolovethisweather]

To help those who don't want to enter the boiling cauldron of the MOD thread, please view JP's post above and Ben Cambs previous effort or follow my advice below, should you wish.

Tomorrow is expected to be a largely cool crisp day. Thereafter, a day or two of murk and mild muck in spells and then later on into next week, things get COMPLICATED. The overall trend however, is one of cooler weather, potentially much colder and most probably a drier situation will take place as we leave November behind and enter December.

However, it must be said that 14 days/2 weeks is a long time in meteorology.

Just as a matter of personal preference, for easy understandable viewing of the ever changing outputs I would choose the following posters.

Gibby, Frosty, Phil Wark, Old Met Man or TWS for my top five.

*no favoritism intended

Incidentally I'm just watching the GF18z PUB RUN roll out to see IF the trend stated above is holding true.

Edited November 17, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal.]

I just watch the model thread not post that often. Many people have contrasting views and I am far less experienced than most of them to adding my analysis to the equation. It's nice to see posts in here like John Pike's.

[Mrsf16]

I used to go into the model thread but it is hard for my little brain to understand so I get confuddled! lol

Much appreciate those who decipher the model and post in here

[john pike]

updated fax chart tomorrow has a low just to ouir south west

lets hope that keeps clear of us tomorrow afternoon

tonight could get below freezing brrrrrrrrrrr

sunday night should stay dry and wont be cold 8-9 degrees

monday morning should stay dry

as we go into the afternoon rain and blustery winds move in

12-13 degrees but wont feel it in the wind and rain

monday night wet and windy not cold

tuesday wet and windy yuk low teen temperatures

wednesday to me looks drier but with lower possiblity of showers

feeling cooler 10 degrees

thursday looks dry and breezy

could be a cloudy one again

9-10 degress

the block to our east -north east has got closer on thursdays fax

i expect it will get close then retreat a little then build stronger and makes its

way back towards us

[Steve C]

I agree with JP's and gtltw's analyses re the mod thread and for the posters to look for there, for the less experienced.

There are some other brilliant posters there, but for the uninitiated (or even not majorly initiated) their analyses can be as much use as the proverbial chocolate teapot. There is something there for everybody though.

Edited November 17, 2012 by Steve C

[gottolovethisweather]

I agree with JP's and gtltw's analyses re the mod thread and for the posters to look for there, for the less experienced.

There are some other brilliant posters there, but for the unititiated (or even not majorly initiated) their analyses are as much use as the proverbial chocolate teapot. There is something there for everybody though.

Indeed Steve C and those chocolate teapots can change to stella runs by the very next model run as well. Reading the models, all comes from experience and even now, I haven't the foggiest about the NH processes which aid the global perspective, to which we ALL must look to for the bigger picture. Take a step back and ask yourself, how big is the UK in terms of the whole globe, now also ask yourself how minute is your region in all of this too. Hence, I feel this is why it doesn't pay to always comment on each and every run unless, you are confident of the ensuing trend unveiling itself correctly in the future, otherwise it leads to the confusion the other 99% of us talk about, when things don't pan out as expected.

I think a sensible piece of advice would be to compare the daily 12z comments from Gibby for example and see if the general trend is continuing from day to day.

Just my tuppence. Whatever, have fun and don't lose any sleep over it all.

Edited November 17, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

that low has appeared from nowhere on gfs 18z run

i dont think this is right (my opinion though)

however this gives you an idea how the mod thread can be confusing

this would be good for areas north of the midlands

but not here

will post the ensembles at 12

[Ice Day]

that low has appeared from nowhere on gfs 18z run

i dont think this is right (my opinion though)

however this gives you an idea how the mod thread can be confusing

this would be good for areas north of the midlands

but not here

will post the ensembles at 12

It would be nice if the low dropped into the North Sea though!

[gottolovethisweather]

that low has appeared from nowhere on gfs 18z run

i dont think this is right (my opinion though)

however this gives you an idea how the mod thread can be confusing

this would be good for areas north of the midlands

but not here

will post the ensembles at 12

The ensembles are indeed the key, John IMO. Because as you know and as many others do too, this is when and where any model confidence will be born out. I look forward to you posting them but I think they should be only used as a guide to the trend longer term, so will consequently give the 12z more attention.

Thanks for also posting the Fax Charts because as JH says, these are simply the best source to determine nearer term prospects.

How long will it be before you or I dig out a late November 2010 chart John?

Edited November 17, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Ice Day]

Quick question to John & GTLTW

Away from the Model Forecast thread (!), what's your gut feeling regarding the chances of a cold shot within the next three weeks? From my limited understanding, it appears that the chances just stay out of the reliable time-frame and keep getting pushed back; although if my recollection is correct, that was how November 2010 started!

[john pike]

hi got to love this weather

want to go to get the nov 2010 charts but dont want to jinx this

i agree re the ensembles

i use them as trends and like tonights 18z run i think will be an outlier (warm one)

the funny thing is, when 2010 came up with the eastern block the fax chart

was the only one that threw up hints before hand

[snowblues]

Looking forward for the models to wakeup and smell the coffee,surley it cannot go on for much longer.There has been so many teases either from the North, East ,Greenland blocking.Hopfully the models have not got the full picture yet with all the stratopheric signals.

I want my snow, a beast from the east 87

[Ice Day]

Looking forward for the models to wakeup and smell the coffee,surley it cannot go on for much longer.There has been so many teases either from the North, East ,Greenland blocking.Hopfully the models have not got the full picture yet with all the stratopheric signals.

I want my snow, a beast from the east 87

1987 - yes please. I lived in Southend at the time, 22 inches of snow and blocks of ice floating in the sea. Only lasted a week, but still my best winter memory!

[john pike]

oh well

dont look nothing special

a week later getting there

last day of november brrrrrrrr

week later

would this have been expected from the first chart mmmmmmmmmmmmm

http://www.netweathe...ction=gfs;sess=

link for others to look how it evolved

Edited November 17, 2012 by john pike

[john pike]

sorry forgot this one

[john pike]

if i go by that for aberdeen

we will have heatwave and freeze each day

waiting london ones

[gottolovethisweather]

Quick question to John & GTLTW

Away from the Model Forecast thread (!), what's your gut feeling regarding the chances of a cold shot within the next three weeks? From my limited understanding, it appears that the chances just stay out of the reliable time-frame and keep getting pushed back; although if my recollection is correct, that was how November 2010 started!

Model uncertainty is rife at the moment. I can however, still see the longer term trend remaining firm, largely thanks to the ensembles daily comparisons. The reason I think there is uncertainty is down to the conflicting NH and stratospheric signals. With this in mind, I don't think I can seriously predict anything other than what I hinted at earlier. One thing I will say though is that confusion reigns over the many differing outputs, you can bet the global picture is a changing. Whether its for the better or worse, we should find out sooner or later.

Over to you John.

sorry forgot this one

bank

Edited November 18, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[snowblues]

1987 - yes please. I lived in Southend at the time, 22 inches of snow and blocks of ice floating in the sea. Only lasted a week, but still my best winter memory!

Yes, fantastic week that was i am sure there was up to 2 feet in some parts or Kent.

Hoping to pass 17 inch in the the garden from the 2010 winter, this winter

Edited November 18, 2012 by snowblues

[john pike]

not sure how to work this

the ensembles are showing cool weather from 24th onwards

colder drop from 27th on

a lot of rain for 20th-22nd

better wait for 12z tomorrow

[Ice Day]

Model uncertainty is rife at the moment. I can however, still see the longer term trend remaining firm, largely thanks to the ensembles daily comparisons.

Which adds to the excitement really. The first week of December could see a foot of snow or 15 degrees and the Atlantic dominating. It's the uncertainty that brings us back year after year I suppose?!

[Steve C]

sorry forgot this one

Definitely eye candy, but that set up looks really bizarre though. So much so, that I wonder if it could happen in reality?

[gottolovethisweather]

Definitely eye candy, but that set up looks really bizarre though. So much so, that I wonder if it could happen in reality?

Well it did, didn't it.

[john pike]

just for fun

see the split between cold and warm air

which way will it go?

i lived in biggin hill when that happened

nearly 8 days of heavy snow

remember reliable charts go to about 180

any cold spell will not necessarily show up in fi

thats what makes it fascinating

[gottolovethisweather]

I NEED SLEEP.

night night.