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Tropical Storm Rosa


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Storm Rosa has formed in the East Pacific, well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Sustained winds are currently at 35kts. The storm has spun up rather quickly, and is well organised with excellent banding flanking the convection covered LLC. Rosa has another 24-36hrs to strengthen before shear rises and waters cool on the west-northwesterly track. As Rosa is so far out to sea, it is of no threat to land.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rosa peaked at 50kts but is now weakening as shear rises. Intensity has fallen to 45kts as convection gets displaced from the LLC. Rosa has been moving very slowly west-southwestward over the last day, but Rosa should turn toqards the northwest soon. Rosa should continue to weaken as shear rises further, however, if Rosa keeps moving to the west-southwest, it may duck under the strongest shear, at least for a time.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

201217E_7F.png

Tropical Storm ROSA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rosa is holding it's own against the shear this morning. Intensity is 40kts. Rosa maintains a deep area of convection slightly displaced from the partially exposed LLC. However, dry air is going to join the high shear, and Rosa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within the next 12hrs then to a remnant low soon after.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rosa has done well to last this long. Granted, Rosa is now only a 25kt tropical depression but it has persisted as one for nearly 24hrs in the face of a massive 50kts of shear. Just when Rosa looked like it was done for this morning, another convective burst fired up over the LLC. This has since sheared away again leaving the LLC exposed. Rosa cannot survive for much longer in such a hosile environment, and is expected to become a remnant low tonight as it drifts westwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rosa has been destroyed this morning. All that remains is a linear line of weak convection and no real signs of the LLC. Therefore, regeneration is not expected.

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