Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[feb1991blizzard]

Is what is currently being suggested in the strat thread correct? because if so I'm really not looking forward to chio's next update.

From my unexpert position, i think we should at least give it another 2 weeks before passing judgement on the opening few weeks of winter, i am sure chiono would say the same, nothing stratospherically is way below average from what i can see.

Edited October 29, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

The thing i would note is that the mean trough has been and will be over us if you count recent past and what is likely to happen over the next few weeks, question is, would you take that situation if its the same up until february?, i know what my answer to that is, lets see what other people think.

Edited October 29, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Cloud 10]

November is shaping up to be an interesting month for coldies.

[feb1991blizzard]

November is shaping up to be an interesting month for coldies.

Kind of what i expected given the above charts i posted, potentially would threaten Nov 10 as the best November of my life if that verified.

Edited October 29, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Mark Neal.]

Far less snow in the 2012 events then the others. Thought those photos showed that rather well.

Hi guys. Yes we have been very lucky here over the last few years but this February only saw 5cm fall. Dec 2010 was 18cm and Jan 2010 a mega 24cm. Feb 2009 also saw 14cm. Would be grateful to see more than a few cm this winter, although after Jan/Dec 2010 i want to see some large snowfall again, greedy i know aha..

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Hi guys. Yes we have been very lucky here over the last few years but this February only saw 5cm fall. Dec 2010 was 18cm and Jan 2010 a mega 24cm. Feb 2009 also saw 14cm. Would be grateful to see more than a few cm this winter, although after Jan/Dec 2010 i want to see some large snowfall again, greedy i know aha..

I am hopping for 3 feet of the white stuff this December. I just with it is realistic to ask for that much in stockport.

O-well

[Evening thunder]

Out of those photos...you can easily see which ones are the 2012 ones. Compare them with the 2009,2010 ones and then you see why there was so much disappointment last winter.

I'd have been reasonably happy with that, last winter the maximum snow depth at my house (26m asl in East Devon) was a grand 0cm, with just a light snow flurry one morning in early February before rain set in. Thankfully I did drive to the Blackdown Hills a couple times to see a couple of inches looking very beautiful over the trees. Sometimes I think less heavy falls of snow can be just as beautiful as deeper falls.

However in December 2010 we ended up with over 25cm lying snow after heavier-than-forecast snow (20cm on top of what was already lying) on the 20th - My Avatar was taken looking out our front window that morning.

[weather is fun]

Not liking what im reading over on the strat threat. Sounds not very good at all. Hope this winter hasnt been blown out of all proportion again. But those updates arent good news at all. Think i will rain my hopes in again for this winter. Because to my untrained eye we can forget about anything cold snowy and prolonged which is not good. Bloody stupid strat. lol

[lutfishah]

Hi guys

I have seen Piers Corbyn forecast for october and november... And i must give him credit that his forecast for october was perfect. He spoted the october cold in the beginning of the month. Now november the forecast is infront of me. and there are cold periods in the beginning of the month but I'm gonna watch the period from 12-20th of November. If what I see from the forecast is true in the coming day then I have to say that Piers Corbyn is a good forecaster.

The dates of october cold were sooooo perfect....

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Not liking what im reading over on the strat threat. Sounds not very good at all. Hope this winter hasnt been blown out of all proportion again. But those updates arent good news at all. Think i will rain my hopes in again for this winter. Because to my untrained eye we can forget about anything cold snowy and prolonged which is not good. Bloody stupid strat. lol

Like you said to your untrained eye mate, leave the updates and speculation to ch and gp , if there's any significant news , good or bad, they will tell us, the strat cools massively this time of year it's autumn, we are looking at a disorganised vortex for the foreseeable future, so long as we can keep it away from greenlands then things can always get interesting , our eyes need to be looking toward Canada for a warming I believe, also signs of a scandi high setting up shop. All ifs and buts at the min, but certainly nothing to be overly concerned about.

[Ninman]

Is this the PV shifting eastwards over to Siberia?

[johnholmes]

Not liking what im reading over on the strat threat. Sounds not very good at all. Hope this winter hasnt been blown out of all proportion again. But those updates arent good news at all. Think i will rain my hopes in again for this winter. Because to my untrained eye we can forget about anything cold snowy and prolonged which is not good. Bloody stupid strat. lol

Have you read the intro from chio at the beginning of the thread? It will help you to begin to understand this very complex area of meteorology-well worth reading up.

[ukpaul]

Two nicely positive posts as regards the strat and blocking by Matt Hugo and Chio in the strat thread. It's probably best if people look at their posts to see what is really happening - remember, not all posters are equal!

Chiono "A better warming is forecast at around the 15 day period and this has been growing on consecutive runs. It is FI but worth keeping a watch on still.

We are also currently seeing a minor warming that has dragged us back up to average - every little helps!"

Matt Hugo "The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 10 09!

It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example."

[Mark Bayley]

Have you read the intro from chio at the beginning of the thread? It will help you to begin to understand this very complex area of meteorology-well worth reading up.

Yes, i feel this year theres been quite a lot of reaction to the strat thread. Whenever cooling is mentioned you seem to get a lot of worried posts from people! The strat isn't going to remain above average all the time, and as GP said a while back, its better to see some larger warming events later on in the season than now. The fact is at the moment the strat has been cooling (as one would expect as the season progresses), but not significantly with recent minor warmings taking it back to around average

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

As a previous poster stated, i urge people to read posts from CH and GP and so on, those that have been posting about it for the past few years, and that whenever the word cooling is mentioned its not the end of the world or to much of bad thing (unless its a significant cooling).

Edited October 30, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Eskimo]

Yes, i feel this year theres been quite a lot of reaction to the strat thread. Whenever cooling is mentioned you seem to get a lot of worried posts from people! The strat isn't going to remain above average all the time, and as GP said a while back, its better to see some larger warming events later on in the season than now. The fact is at the moment the strat has been cooling (as one would expect as the season progresses), but not significantly with recent minor warmings taking it back to around average

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

As a previous poster stated, i urge people to read posts from CH and GP and so on, those that have been posting about it for the past few years, and that whenever the word cooling is mentioned its not the end of the world or to much of bad thing (unless its a significant cooling).

Not sure why people are worrying anyway, looking at that graph, the strat seems to be on a warming trend (albeit very slowly).

[Staffordshire]

CFS an absolute rasper, stonking battleground setup followed by belter of an Easterly, going to post a good few charts from this, mostly just for fun at this stage but they have been showing on and off for a long time now (and mostly on lately).

holy cow! i recon that would give me my best fall of snow in a while! i mean that BGS looks great!

[marky810]

A local weather forcaster said the other day that after the poor summer and recent record rainfall we could really do with a mild and dry winter in order for the countryside and nature to recover. Not to mention farming and agriculture.

[Eskimo]

A local weather forcaster said the other day that after the poor summer and recent record rainfall we could really do with a mild and dry winter in order for the countryside and nature to recover. Not to mention farming and agriculture.

Nature balances itself out eventually.

[itsnowjoke]

Well i hope it does rubbish summer in my eyes should equall loads of snow in winter lol

Edited October 30, 2012 by itsnowjoke

[Mark Bayley]

Well i hope it does rubbish summer in my eyes should equall loads of snow in winter lol

Or on the other hand all those summer synoptics we wanted in summer occur in winter :lol:

[itsnowjoke]

Waist deep:)

at the moment im currently sunbathing : )

Edited October 30, 2012 by itsnowjoke

[itsnowjoke]

A local weather forcaster said the other day that after the poor summer and recent record rainfall we could really do with a mild and dry winter in order for the countryside and nature to recover. Not to mention farming and agriculture.

we may need a dry winter but i dont want one.

A dry winter to me is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard

[cheeky_monkey]

we may need a dry winter but i dont want one.

A dry winter to me is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard

Surely a dry cold winter would be better than a very mild wet one?

[Eskimo]

Surely a dry cold winter would be better than a very mild wet one?

Think he means he wants a snowy winter, nevertheless if you were to have a wet winter it would come out mild 9/10 of the time...just how the UK climate rolls.

[cheeky_monkey]

Think he means he wants a snowy winter, nevertheless if you were to have a wet winter it would come out mild 9/10 of the time...just how the UK climate rolls.

I think if i ever move back to the UK (sooner rather than later hopefully) my preference would be for dry relatively cold winters.