Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[EML Network]

Regardless of whatever the ECM seasonal update says later, I'm rather concerned by the reluctance of the CFS to paint a particularly cold winter. Infact, over the past 4 weeks, the promising patterns we were at one time seeing have completely disintegrated. All routes seem to point to average/mild on this model.

On the Whole I would agree with that, the trend is away from the deep and prolonged cold it was showing, but I wouldn't say it's gunning for Mild, if anything it's trending towards slightly below - average , here's the current chart for the very first day of Winter...obviously it'll change..but I do take your point on board, it's delaying the cold, keeps pushing it back all the time, and when that happens I start to get concerned, for weeks upon end it was showing a decent cold spell from Mid - Late November , but when Mid November started to get to the beginning of the CFS run, as opposed to the end, it watered it all down...hopefully the same WON'T happen with the early December prognosis...but I am not convinced

[John Badrick]

On the Whole I would agree with that, the trend is away from the deep and prolonged cold it was showing, but I wouldn't say it's gunning for Mild, if anything it's trending towards slightly below - average , here's the current chart for the very first day of Winter...obviously it'll change..but I do take your point on board, it's delaying the cold, keeps pushing it back all the time, and when that happens I start to get concerned, for weeks upon end it was showing a decent cold spell from Mid - Late November , but when Mid November started to get to the beginning of the CFS run, as opposed to the end, it watered it all down...hopefully the same WON'T happen with the early December prognosis...but I am not convinced

The METO seem to think theres potential for somthing later on in the month, so i believe they have seen somthing that we have not!

[NorthernRab]

On the Whole I would agree with that, the trend is away from the deep and prolonged cold it was showing, but I wouldn't say it's gunning for Mild, if anything it's trending towards slightly below - average , here's the current chart for the very first day of Winter...obviously it'll change..but I do take your point on board, it's delaying the cold, keeps pushing it back all the time, and when that happens I start to get concerned, for weeks upon end it was showing a decent cold spell from Mid - Late November , but when Mid November started to get to the beginning of the CFS run, as opposed to the end, it watered it all down...hopefully the same WON'T happen with the early December prognosis...but I am not convinced

I would expect the trend to delay the cold to be honest, what with winter not yet being here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I would expect the trend to delay the cold to be honest, what with winter not yet being here.

Yes but I don't think the weather has a conscious mind to adhere itself to man made, arbitrary seasonal boundaries

[Methuselah]

Closing this one shortly...here's linky: