Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Continental Climate]

[quote name='feb1991blizzard' timestamp='1350937909' post='2387954

Bloody hell that would be awesome imagine this place if that came to fruition lol, no way id be going to work

[Tony Beets]

The law of averages surely means that one day in the not so distant future one of them charts will come off????

We can hope.

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone who likes weather porn, view this whole run, even into march, there is some sort of cold.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1080&mode=0&carte=0&run=4

[feb1991blizzard]

Bloody hell that would be awesome imagine this place if that came to fruition lol, no way id be going to work

Its meltdown in here when one of those things is shown on one run, was it the 12z ECM on the last saturday in Jan last year, only fell 100 short of breaking the record online, and the chart was for day 7 if i remember rightly!!!

Right on both counts, 12z ECM and it was a day 7 chart.

Edited October 22, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Its meltdown in here when one of those things is shown on one run, was it the 12z ECM on the last saturday in Jan last year, only fell 100 short of breaking the record online, and the chart was for day 7 if i remember rightly!!!

28th Jan, yeah before the snow, less than 100 I think, was so close I was watching that, was only 5 short

sure it was on 1759,

Edited October 22, 2012 by ihatetherain

[Snowy Easterlies]

blimey, even lands end would get pasted from that chart

PS Good news from GP so i hear ?

[Jason T]

Bloody hell that would be awesome imagine this place if that came to fruition lol, no way id be going to work

Anything possible at this stage. we got a whole 10 weeks minimum to get through.

[Gavin Hannah]

Just to add, my main wish this year is that the Polar vortex sets up shop over the UK. Too much to ask??

Edited October 22, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[SnowObsessor90]

'Incidentally, GFS and ECM long range 30hPa temperature forecasts maintain -70C or -75C values for early November over the Pole, which is average or slightly above average for that time of year.' - GP.

Winters not over.

Chio on the other hand doesn't seem to be having it.....

[Continental Climate]

Its meltdown in here when one of those things is shown on one run, was it the 12z ECM on the last saturday in Jan last year, only fell 100 short of breaking the record online, and the chart was for day 7 if i remember rightly!!!

Right on both counts, 12z ECM and it was a day 7 chart.

thats a hell of a chart -18 850's bathing the south, unfortunately wasnt meant to be, with hindsight not a surprise as that chart is both too good to be true and just never looked right

[bluearmy]

Chio on the other hand doesn't seem to be having it.....

the 30hpa strat temp for early november is irrelevant to the general point being made by GP. its all supposition at the moment and i think you'll have to wait some time to get a handle on what effect the strat is going to have on this winter. part 5 of this thread and just over half way through autumn!!

[Gavin Hannah]

the 30hpa strat temp for early november is irrelevant to the general point being made by GP. its all supposition at the moment and i think you'll have to wait some time to get a handle on what effect the strat is going to have on this winter. part 5 of this thread and just over half way through autumn!!

I wager 25 parts by the end of March.

[Snowyowl9]

For october end of 2008.

This cold snap end of the week doesn`t look quite as cold.

A classic mix here to see again.

November 1985.

December 1981.

January 1984.

february 1985.

[feb1991blizzard]

blimey, even lands end would get pasted from that chart

PS Good news from GP so i hear ?

Yes, although from GP's other posts and even chiono's, the slit your wrists time had never been reached in the first place and the reaction in here was probably OTT anyway TBH.

The law of averages surely means that one day in the not so distant future one of them charts will come off????

We can hope.

Once in a generation events - fortunately i saw 2 of them in 4 years, Nearly a month off school in total!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

For october end of 2008.

This cold snap end of the week doesn`t look quite as cold.

A classic mix here to see again.

November 1985.

December 1981.

January 1984.

february 1985.

Nov 1996, Late Dec 1996, Late Nov 2010, Early Dec 2010 for me, too young but I dont think I would like a Jan 84, seems a rainfest for my area

[feb1991blizzard]

28th Jan, yeah before the snow, less than 100 I think, was so close I was watching that, was only 5 short

sure it was on 1759,

It must have peaked before or after then, i remember, i was at my mates in midlands, it was on 1600 and something, he could not understand why i was having an o***** over a weather chart, and was geniunely worried by the look on my face, that he might struggle to get to work in a weeks time!!!

[BarometerBunts]

I EXPECT tears and tantrums on this forum. HOPE there aren't too many Prozac moments and WISH for a wintry winter. Think we will require a lot of patience...... GP has posted some positive elements re set up for Winter but we cannot expect Winter to deliver before it has even started. Some comments would lead you to believe it was January/February with Spring around the corner.

[tadpole]

Hmm but wasnt we the lucky ones back at the beginning of year for the snow events!!... anyway all i want is a repeat of either 1987/91 or actually 2010 run-up to xmas wasnt to bad.. but please lets just have for once a country wide snow event right smack bang on xmas!!.. that would make xmas just that special again.

I remember the '87 one as I lived at the top of a steep hill, my son would stop and build snowmen all the way down it, then again on the way up, I had to take a bag of carrots out with me every time.

The 60's were the best as it snowed on boxing day a few times, closest I've had had to snow at Xmas.

[Barry12]

The cold spell!

[Hotspur62]

This year everyone seems to be focussing on the Strat.Whilst this is important,it is only one factor and cannot be taken in isolation.Last year alot of people on another forum were hellbent on the NAO.What will it be next year for Winter 2013/14??Everyone has got to calm down.Let's wait to middle of November(difficult i know!!) and then we will get a clearer picture for the first half of winter and what it might hold for the UK.I appreciate that some future charts look impressive if you like cold,but lets be honest,they are very very unlikely to come off.Not putting a dampner on things,just trying to put a bit of perspective on here.

Looks like future cold blast this weekend is being modified a bit now with core of the cold being to our East but things could still change.Really enjoying posts from the likes of BFTP and others who really have great knowledge and have helped my understanding of lots of different factors that will make up our Winter.Thanks and keep them coming!!

[Barry12]

Just watched bbc weather on the tv, the weatherman says there could be snow in low levels in the north east on Saturday!

Edited October 22, 2012 by Barry95

[SnowObsessor90]

the 30hpa strat temp for early november is irrelevant to the general point being made by GP. its all supposition at the moment and i think you'll have to wait some time to get a handle on what effect the strat is going to have on this winter. part 5 of this thread and just over half way through autumn!!

In anycase looks like there may have a bit of confusion there on Chio's part so nevermind. Let's hope GP has this one correct.

[fUnKy]

From my week or so on this forum I have now come to the conclusion that all I want for Christmas is sudden stratospheric warming... My letter's off to Santa

[feb1991blizzard]

This year everyone seems to be focussing on the Strat.Whilst this is important,it is only one factor and cannot be taken in isolation.Last year alot of people on another forum were hellbent on the NAO.What will it be next year for Winter 2013/14??Everyone has got to calm down.Let's wait to middle of November(difficult i know!!) and then we will get a clearer picture for the first half of winter and what it might hold for the UK.I appreciate that some future charts look impressive if you like cold,but lets be honest,they are very very unlikely to come off.Not putting a dampner on things,just trying to put a bit of perspective on here.

Looks like future cold blast this weekend is being modified a bit now with core of the cold being to our East but things could still change.Really enjoying posts from the likes of BFTP and others who really have great knowledge and have helped my understanding of lots of different factors that will make up our Winter.Thanks and keep them coming!!

A -ve NAO anomaly is related to an above average polar strat / SSW though, i wont go as far as to say that you cannot get HLB without a very warm strat, but from what i have read in the strat thread, i would say that with a below average strat, you are very unlikely to get sustained blocking.

[Mark Neal.]

Hi everyone, just done a forecast looking at the next few days weatherwise, plenty of interesting weather to come. Hope you like what i have wrote... its the 1st article at this site... http://www. metlink.co.uk/V4/

Edited October 22, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal