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Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 10th October 2012>


Jane Louise

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Not here MHR,the 2 storms I had here this year were the first in years,didn't have any storms in 2009,seen 1 in 2008 but that was in Minehead and recall 1 late evening in 2005 or 2006 and a Supercell in Toronto,have only seen 4 uk storms in over 6 years so confidence in seeing more this year are VERY LOW.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Sorry guys, left my eye off the ball for a while. Looks like Wednesday into Thursday has some possibilities in the West:

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Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

Complex charts for the remainder of the week with low pressure broadly centred over the British Isles, so I would say there is a fair chance of 'interesting' whether for some of us. Work has me going from West to East and back every day this week, so it's effectively funding my storm chasing - although only at rush hour!

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Sorry guys, left my eye off the ball for a while. Looks like Wednesday into Thursday has some possibilities in the West:

I've not been looking into too much detail either with my general thoughts that the storm season ends around the end of September. However, although it is a rapidly changing situation and the coming days models may well get rid of it entirely, there does look to be some good possibilities over Weds/Thurs - and in the east too from what I can see.

Hirlam showing quite a bit of CAPE around by 18z Wednesday - which has been there most of the day further west. Add to this between 40-60 knts of deep layer shear :)

post-2719-0-76329400-1350363413_thumb.pn

Still there by 00z into Thursday but heading east and out into the sea.

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Impressive Helicity values, and a supercell risk being shown also. No point trying to pinpoint where and when as yet.

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All this comes with an additional tornado risk - these charts for 18z Weds into Thurs night.

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And finally, lapse rates looking good also. So, I would expect to see some lightning in there too should things happen as these charts show.

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Not a bad set of charts from Hirlam and will certainly be worth another look this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Free atmosphere charts seem to show the general trend now for the UK, a bit of action in the middle of this week before things (convectively) slow down as the 'season' also inevitably slows down.

MU_Aberdeen_avn.png

MU_Manchester_avn.png

A little blip in a weeks time in the South, but nothing at all to get excited about currently:

MU_London_avn.png

156_20.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Not here MHR,the 2 storms I had here this year were the first in years,didn't have any storms in 2009,seen 1 in 2008 but that was in Minehead and recall 1 late evening in 2005 or 2006 and a Supercell in Toronto,have only seen 4 uk storms in over 6 years so confidence in seeing more this year are VERY LOW.

Fair enough. You really have been unlucky. Just goes to show what a weather shield the city of Bristol has. The same happened in December 2010 with the snow - less than 1cm in Bristol itself on the 17th then drove south into North Somerset and it increased to 15-20cm along the A370.

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Yes MHR my part of Bristol does well at keeping out most bad weather!Like on the weekend north Bristol had hail,I was talking to my sister at the time sat in the garden in the sun,Was unlucky a few weeks ago to,had TS's around me yet I happened to be in the dry spot!Yes I have been unlucky and I put it down to the Britol storm shield working 99.9% of the time,although it maybe a little bit broke over north Bristol.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Been a while and sorry, but here's a load of stuff to scroll through for today. ESTOFEX have a broad area of low possibilities running through the UK:

post-6667-0-68202500-1350463593_thumb.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 17 Oct 2012 06:00 to Thu 18 Oct 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 17 Oct 2012 04:18

Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

Towards west, a significant mid/upper level trough is forecast over the Atlantic, amplifying towards south, with a deep low pressure system centered close to Ireland coastline, its trough stretching towards Western Iberia. Strong flow is forecast at the forward flank of the trough, yielding moderate to strong DLS over a wide swath of Western Europe. Poor mid-level lapse rates preclude significant instability in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, whereas poor low level moisture will limit the CAPE behind the cold front.

DISCUSSION

... Southeastern Ireland, Western England, Western Scottland ...

Close to the center of the deep low pressure system, strong low level flow, exceeding locally 20 m/s at 850 hPa should be observed over the area. At the same time, a left-exit region should pass over the region in the noon hours, providing enhanced lift and perpahs aiding in destabilisation. This should stay rather marginal due to the poor low level moisture and limited especially to the coastal areas. Enhanced DLS values should be observed especially in the eastern part of the area, underneath the strong mid/upper level flow. With low LCLs and strong background flow at low levels, isolated tornado in case that more pronounced / organised DMC manages to form is not ruled out, but threat seems to be too low to warrant a Level attm.

As is often the case out of the depth of the season, nobody else is forecasting just yet but that shouldn't be taken as anything not likely to happen or indeed likely to happening.

Take a view if you will from these sources for the day:

075613Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12101712.GIF

041453Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12101715.GIF

PGNE14_CL.gif

So a bit of agreement from general sources, here are some specific charts from HiRLAM on Lightning Wizard:

MLCAPE develops through the day ahead of the incoming low:

hir_cape_eur15.png

Very little SBCAPE

hir_spout_eur15.png

But lapse rates are up:

hir_lapse2_eur15.png

Some shear through the North:

hir_icape_eur15.png

Scotland seems to miss out on things?

hir_layer_eur15.png

Although the borders see more rain:

hir_prec_eur15.png

Quite a few areas of potential for tornadoes, even down in the South:

hir_stp_eur15.png

hir_srhl_eur15.png

In terms of thunderstorm potential, the simple format GFS charts show:

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Looks like things just hang around the Irish Sea and over Ireland itself for the next 24 hours, another one to watch on radar I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Black as night here now in Keswick - very heavy ppn developing and running inland from the coast, already heard a rumble of thunder also my mother has been on the phone to say the roads are becoming flooded and just passable near to the west coast around Harrington/Disington due to the amount of water falling.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

Electrical activity has started up in central Wales and it looks like there may be more to the south west on the radar. Hoping that stuff in Wales comes somewhere near me, the charts Coast posted look good here as far as CAPE, lapse rates and shear go.

Last night was a very wet one indeed in Chester.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

See that cell approaching Reading on the radar - well my office desk looks out onto the south west of Reading and I cahave a great view of it approaching - she is literarally about to knock on my door. Wind is picking up now - she is slightlly veerring though more to the north though

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

WOW it's put some water down in the last hour, a few flashes and bangs to boot! The main action seems to be focussed over the Irish Sea and around SW Scotland and NW England. Very windy as well in may western areas with gusts touching 50-60mph.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The main action seems to be focussed over the Irish Sea and around SW Scotland and NW England.

Very encouraging, as that seemed to be the general trend from this mornings output. :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

Massive rumble there, pretty sure it was thunder - edit, I'm in Birchwood, not Chester...and it was thunder followed now by hail.

Thunderstorm.

Edited by Chris W
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Very encouraging, as that seemed to be the general trend from this mornings output. good.gif

Yes we now know the models were pretty spot on, which should be the case at this range :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Yes we now know the models were pretty spot on, which should be the case at this range biggrin.png

Well that's how I get away with showing something reasonably accurate, I just post stuff that is almost on the radar!!!! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Any thunder reports from our NE Bristol - Gloucestershrie based members?

Some lightning detected in the last hour or so from fast moving small cells roughly between Thornbury NE towards Moreton In Marsh.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Looking like something's going to happen soon here, gone very very dark.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Witnessed a small thunderstorm an hour ago whilst I was in the garden center.I couldn't hear much though as it was too damn noisy grrrrr.

Edited by Jane Louise
forgot to put the time lol
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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

I don't want to mis-read things but that storm that initiated over here and has since crossed Manchester appears to be growing according to Sat24 - not becoming a supercell is it?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

I don't want to mis-read things but that storm that initiated over here and has since crossed Manchester appears to be growing according to Sat24 - not becoming a supercell is it?

Been watching the active cells moving towards Yorkshire - They are growing, I can't post the radar shots at work.

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