Typhoon Prapiroon

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Prapiroon has formed at 18N 136E, several hundred miles east of Luzon. Sustained winds are currently estimated to be 35kts. The storm has deep, centralised convection over the well defined LLC. Conditions are very favourable for strengthening, with low shear and hot waters of about 30C beneath the system. The initial JTWC forecast is very aggressive, with Prapiroon forecast to be a 105kt cat 3 typhoon by day 5. Could be looking at another monster here. Prapiroon is forecast to move slowly westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north over the next few days. After this time there is considerable uncertainty, but Prapiroon could turn towards the northwest well east of the Philippines.

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon has strengthened overnight and sustained winds are estimated to be 50kts. Convection continues to be deep over the LLC, and banding features remain healthy. Conditions are highly favourable for strengthening, and it shouldn't be long before Prapiroon becomes a typhoon as it moves slowly westwards in a weak steering flow.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon is close to becoming a typhoon, with sustained winds now at 60kts. The track forecast now indicates a recurve to the northeast well east of Luzon and southeast of Okinawa, though this is still subject to change. The environment remains favourable for further intensification.

EDIT: Been upgraded to a 65kt typhoon by JMA.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon is now a cat 2 typhoon with sustained winds of 85kts. Overnight, the system has developed an increasingly well defined eye, though it is cloud obscured. Prapiroon is forecast to intensify quickly through the next 48hrs as outflow remains impressive, shear low and waters very warm.

Prapiroon is turning towards the northwest now as the subtropical ridge to the north begins to weaken. Steering influence is forecast to shift to a ridge to the south over the next day or so, forcing Prapiroon to the north then east.

Edited October 10, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon has strengthened slowly over the last 36hrs. Intensity is now at 95kts. Prapiroon is expected to become a cat 3 tomorrow before waters cool a little on the northeasterly track, which should stop further intensification. Prapiroon will run into high shear in around 48hrs time inducing weakening.

Prapiroon has stopped moving towards the northwest now and is quasi-stationary as it is trapped between two ridges. The southern ridge will win forcing Prapiroon northeastwards over the next few days.

Edited October 11, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[lfcdude]

Will hit Okinawa early next week, according to NHKBS1, P.s... that's a Japanese tv channel bit like bbc

What modal is right? One of the models our going to look stupid... This the JMA

Edited October 11, 2012 by lfcdude

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon peaked at 100kts (cat 3) but has since weakened as the typhoon underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. Prapiroon hasn't really recovered from this, as the eye is not well defined and the convection in the northern quadrant is weak. Prapiroon's slow motion may have upwelled colder water to the surface which may explain the weakening, as conditions are otherwise favourable (low shear and good outflow). As Prapiroon's track speed is not expected to increase significantly, this may continue to be a problem for the typhoon. For this reason, JTWC is not forecasting Prapiroon to restrengthen. JTWC's track forecast is also different to JMA's, with Prapiroon shown to stay well southeast of Okinawa and eventually accelerate into the mid-lattitude westerlies south and east of Japan by day 4/5. It all depends on the possibilty of a ridge building east of Prapiroon; the sooner this builds the more to the north the track will be as the steering influence shifts away from the equatorial ridge (to the south/southeast) currently steering the typhoon.

Edited October 12, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon has weakened further an is now a minimal typhoon with sustained winds of 65kts. The typhoon has significant gaps in the convection near the centre, and the eye is all but gone on satellite imagery. Prapiroon is crawling towards the north, east of Okinawa, as steering influence shifts from ridging to the south to a new ridge to the east. This nothward motion will last for a day or so before troughing breaks down the ridge and sends Prapiroon back towards the northeast. Prapiroon is expected to re-intensify slightly as a strong poleward outflow channel opens up into the mid-lattitude westerlies. These westerlies, however, will thereafter increase shear over Prapiroon, causing the typhoon to weaken. with cooler sea temps coming into play in around 4-5 days time, Prapiroon should begin extratropical transition at this time.

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon has re-strengthened a little to 70kts this evening. The eye is back, but it's rugged and the convection remains fairly shallow surrounding it. Nevertheless, the strong poleward outflow into the mid-lattitude westerlies should allow Prapiroon to intensify a little more over the next 48hrs as the typhoon crawls northwards.

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon has lost typhoon status today and is now a 60kt tropical storm. The storm has turned slowly westwards in a weak steering environment. Slow motion has caused upwelling of cold water to the sea surface, but looking at water vapour imagery, dry air has also infiltrated into the core of Prapiroon leading to the observed weakening. Prapiroon is eventually expected to be kicked northeastwards by an advancing trough to the west but this may not be for another couple days yet. Until that time, Prapiroon should remain in a fairly steady state. After, shear will increase, which will begin extratropical transition.

[Somerset Squall]

Prapiroon has finally started to move northeastwards. The storm's intensity has dropped to 45kts, and Prapiroon is expected to become extratropical soon as it races out of the tropics southeast of mainland Japan.

[Coast]

Typhoon Prapiroon wreaks havoc, causes blackouts in Japan’s southern islands

Japan’s southern most islands, including Okinwawa, were battered once again by a typhoon this week, the 21st of the season, going by the name of Prapiroon. The storm treated the residents of Okinawa to winds with speeds of 74 kilometers per hour (46 mph) on Wednesday, along with some unpleasant rainfall. Named after the Thai God of Rain, Prapiroon has moved towards the northeast, and is now causing blackouts in Kagoshima Prefecture.

Thankfully not as bad as the typhoons of Jelawat or Bolaven from the previous weeks, Prapiroon still left more than 1,200 households without power on Thursday morning on the island of Amami Oshima. The direct cause was landslides brought on by the heavy rains, with the ground already wet and loosened from the earlier storms. Kyushu Electric Power Co., the utility that covers the region, says it is addressing the damages as quickly as it can in order to return power.

Air and sea travel was also disrupted, with local flights and ferry services called off for the day. The Japan Meteorological Agency says it expects Typhoon Prapiroon to continue moving northeast through Friday, making its way to the Pacific Ocean. The agency also warns of strong winds and heavy rainfall along the southern coast of Japan’s main island Honshu.

http://japandailypress.com/typhoon-prapiroon-wreaks-havoc-causes-blackouts-in-japans-southern-islands-1816552