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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Ha ! I see the Yanks have a Strat Thread up and running now.. imitation, flattery and all that.

Tempted to go on and post this..

post-7292-0-89158000-1353713501_thumb.jp

1hpa warming - Sudden Sylvester Wrestling. Okay will get my coat.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Great post recretos, I just noticed you live at 1050 ASL, do you have an escape plan if a SSW materialises ?

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Some really good information posted on this thread, I would say we have a great team of knowledgeable folks capable of disseminating factual information. Keep it guys you are doing a superb job.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Interestingly Recretos, the 2008 /2009 winter was the first one with it's own dedicated thread on NW. I am sure it will be in the NW archives somewhere. The 2009 SSW was followed through from inception to end. Sadly, here, we didn't get a huge amount of blocking following the SSW, but we did get a notable early Feb spell of cold and snow that was directly as a consequence of the split vortex.

Promising charts today on the ECM strat output and if I get a moment I will go through them.

PS never been called Mr Chionomaniac before - but I like it!!

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

you'll be 'lord chionomaniac of brighton and hove' by the time you're done on here ed !!

am i imagining it or does a mobile gfs fi across the n atlantic again tie in with a game of 'to you/to me' with the split vortex at 30mb exchanging emphasis between siberia and canada?

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Looking forward to the update Mr C. Almost glad I will be at work when the 12z roll out today. Cannot help thinking that whatever happens in the shorter term with this cold outbreak end of Nov / start Dec that it is just an appetiser for what lies ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Selly Oak, Birmingham or Thanet, East Kent
  • Location: Selly Oak, Birmingham or Thanet, East Kent

I see that the forecasted wave 1 activity is getting higher.

Posted Image

Looks good. But how big does the activity need to be to cause major vortex disruption?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Another good set of charts today with a continued forecast decrease in zonal mean winds

Posted Image

Posted Image

Or in graphical form (a little easier to understand)

Posted Image

While stratospheric temperatures, at the 30hpa level, continue to rise

Posted Image

Posted Image

Although nothing notable for the 10hpa level as of yet

Posted Image

Looking at the geopotential height charts we see a split in the vortex by day 10 at the 100hpa

Posted Image

With sighs of splitting right up to the 10hpa level

Posted Image

This to me would suggest, as others have pointed out, a period of blocking lasting well into December. I see no organised and strong polar vortex. Despite the models chopping and changing on whether the coldest air will get us, i would suggest at some point, over the next few weeks, that there is a high chance it would. Other teleconnective factors, such as the MJO, support this.

UKMO predicts an eventual move to phase eight

Posted ImagePosted Image

GFS predicts an eventual move to phase one

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Can the vortex or its fragments ever being totally destroyed during winter? Or do you always have fragments, regardless of whatever?

Ask back in February!

No, but in all seriousness I'm sure that the Polar Vortex would be omnipresent, although severely damaged.

Wonder about the MJO phases- I'd trust the UKMO output towards phase 8 more, although that's purely because of a lack of enthusiasm personally on the GFS- anyone have any upper air verification data?

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

@Lorenzo: Escape plan? More like riding it out, if the best case scenario comes to fruition. Posted Image I've "survived" temperatures below -20°C with the deep freeze in February, and more than 35 inches of snow in 2007. So there is nothing left to surprise me. Posted Image (Maybe both at the same time)

@Chionomaniac. it was really interesting how that super SSW affected Europe in general. One would expect super blockings, but I guess the outcome wasn't that bad either.

Some of my thoughts on the MJO matter:

ECMWF has the MJO going more or less into phase 2, while GEFS is holding on to the phase 1 only. But basically a slight disagreement between models.

Posted Image

Phase 1 - Phase 2 - Phase 8

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Phase 1 and 8 have a tendency for the strong Aleutian low, which I just can't get familiar with. They do have the Greenland ridging in the composite. I see a slight problem regarding the ridging tendency in the Central and south Europe.

Now these are just composites, how the certain phase looked like in the past. So I look at it more like tendencies or "pattern support".

GEFS is not really reflecting any main phase 1 features.

Posted ImagePosted Image

Now the phase 2 composite also doesn't really have any similar main features. It also has an Aleutian low, but much weaker. But, what is interesting, is all the quite strong blocking features around the polar circle, basically more favorable for P.V. split than the phase 1 composite. It doesn't have the Greenland ridge, but it has Azores ridging with a gap into the polar circle. Another important feature are the lowered heights over Europe into E USA.

Interesting enough, CFSv2 weekly ensembles, are also leaning more towards the phase 2 idea.

Posted Image

But given the temperature anomaly and streamfunction composite, one could say a phase 8 is more likely to occur.

Posted ImagePosted Image

We have to keep in mind that we are on the verge of a split vortex, which can make things look a bit different than the MJO phase composites. Those composites are very good for guidance and in some cases give the right idea of the outcome, but when the overall dynamics get a bit more complex, there are obvious differences with the phase composites. But I am more than positive that we all realize that. Posted Image

In the meanwhile, AAM picked up its zonal "pace", going positive (but I still don't believe that an El Nino signal would appear, especially with SOI being quite positive), with GWO responding by moving in the higher AAM phases, respectively with the negative trending mountain and frictional torque.

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Even tho I have a bit limited knowledge of these processes, this is how I see a possible outcome (my opinion basically):

Atmospheric Angular Momentum trending back down towards negative values, and with an MJO wave coming on, probably in the Indian ocean (Phase 1-2), GWO moving into phases 8 and then into 1, leaving mountain torque near negative. With the resulting northward momentum transport, and the negative AAM if it happens, the mountain torque should eventually re-intensify. And that would make things a bit more interesting again in a certain range. Posted Image IMHO Anyways. Posted Image

Best Regards.

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Can the vortex or its fragments ever being totally destroyed during winter? Or do you always have fragments, regardless of whatever?

So long as the mid-Northern latitudes continue to spin at a rate of about 700-900mph, we'll always have some form of vortex I'd imagine.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Can the vortex or its fragments ever being totally destroyed during winter? Or do you always have fragments, regardless of whatever?

It is totally destroyed at about 10 hPa during some SSW events. Further down their tends to be vortex chunks left here, there and everywhere following an event. Jan 2009 was such an event thath the upper vortex looked like a summer one!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

the vortex is like the liquid terminator T1000, it might smash to pieces when attacked but then it reforms again

Sure beats my jelly!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A corker from the ECM this morning with zonal winds reversing almost to the very top

of the stratosphere,albeit at +240

A SSW just around the corner?

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

A corker from the ECM this morning with zonal winds reversing almost to the very top

of the stratosphere,albeit at +240

An SSW just around the corner?

technically only 10 degrees latitude out (on the fi forecast)

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Cracking update this morning C.

Looking at the dataset of CWs http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

Looks very similar to late 70s early 80s pattern , something you alluded to in the model thread BA, which leads me back to wondering that if we are in a phase of more traditional / retro Winters, then was last year the true anomaly of the last few years in respect of the rampant vortex and eye watering AO.

@recretos there is a link to technical model thread in my signature you may enjoy reading and adding your posts to. Our resident GLAAM expert Glacier Point updates in their regularly and had this recent spike well forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

O-Zone continues to increase both across the tropics and, consequently, the northern mid-high latitudes. Hopefully this gradual increase continues and aids warming up at the top of the strat, as already suggested by the FI reaches of the GFS

Posted Image

SK

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