Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM beginning to come on board with second warming.

Lovely positioned ridge at 30mb still.

And nice probagation down according to this.

EP flux charts improving by the day.

[MattH]

ECM beginning to come on board with second warming.

Lovely positioned ridge at 30mb still.

And nice probagation down according to this.

EP flux charts improving by the day.

Quiet morning shift, so just been flicking through the variety of EC charts from yesterday and as you highlight these, to me, seem to be some of the best EC charts to date. Clearly the vortex is practically none-existent with time and that 2nd or is it perhaps the 3rd warming that C mentioned becoming evident as well over the states on the first image you posted. The EP flux certainly is beginning to trend more poleward as well which can clearly only be a good thing and wave 2 activity continues to be quite impressive, especially in about 4 or 5 days time.

The EC32 update on Tuesday of next week could well be one of the most anticipated in a long time. No doubt it'll keep the blocked signal going, but we are slowly getting towards that time period in terms of forecasting where a broader model-wide agreement on various synoptic patterns and trends is required. Up to present I feel the EC has been playing 'catch-up' to be honest, and the 00Z EC model remains cold, but even up to yesterday evening the 12Z EC ENS were having none of it and were markedly milder.

Fascinating time ahead and a brilliant period of model watching within the next 2 weeks in particular, from a "coldies" point of view, lets hope the next 2 or 3 weeks deliver.

Cheers, Matt.

[feb1991blizzard]

EC has been playing 'catch-up' to be honest, and the 00Z EC model remains cold,

Cheers, Matt.

Not strictly for this thread i know but because the ECM has been slow stratospherically, it could be about to deliver some mouthwatering trop charts now its catching up!!

[bluearmy]

Quiet morning shift, so just been flicking through the variety of EC charts from yesterday and as you highlight these, to me, seem to be some of the best EC charts to date. Clearly the vortex is practically none-existent with time and that 2nd or is it perhaps the 3rd warming that C mentioned becoming evident as well over the states on the first image you posted. The EP flux certainly is beginning to trend more poleward as well which can clearly only be a good thing and wave 2 activity continues to be quite impressive, especially in about 4 or 5 days time.

The EC32 update on Tuesday of next week could well be one of the most anticipated in a long time. No doubt it'll keep the blocked signal going, but we are slowly getting towards that time period in terms of forecasting where a broader model-wide agreement on various synoptic patterns and trends is required. Up to present I feel the EC has been playing 'catch-up' to be honest, and the 00Z EC model remains cold, but even up to yesterday evening the 12Z EC ENS were having none of it and were markedly milder.

Fascinating time ahead and a brilliant period of model watching within the next 2 weeks in particular, from a "coldies" point of view, lets hope the next 2 or 3 weeks deliver.

Cheers, Matt.

If the ec eps suddenly jump, i will continue to question if a model that has a top of 5hpa can be used beyond a week with a top down SSW upcoming and a strat that may be conducive to a quick wave response.

[chionomaniac]

A question for CC.

Out of interest, where did you start your interest in analysis of the stratosphere and potential effects downwards? I have followed all of the discussions since mid Dec and find it incredible over the accuracy that yourself, GP and Recreatos manage to find here.

I appreciate that the Meto and other professional organisations might well have seen the same information or more likely a lot more regarding any potential warmings but your ability to demonstrate many many weeks before the actual event with some accuracy is incredible.

A little off topic and without any specific information but I am truly impressed with the knowledge of you lot !

Hi Charlie - do you mean me or cooling climate?

Welcome to netweather.

My interest in the strat started here on netweather. In fact, when I joined I couldn't even interpret a 500 hPa chart and have no meteirogical training. I am a true amateur but with a passion. I asked questions to start with and the likes of GP and BF provided some great answers and my knowledge with a little bit of research grew from there. I am now in the position where I can also help answer others questions - so I think that we have far more strat experts now than we have when I opened the first thread 5 years ago!

Anyway, thanks for your kind comments.

c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

@chio hey chio i c u gave the strat bug to p.coben seen some of his w.action tweets and he was "a cold blast is on it's way due to ssw sudden stratospheric warming".

Its Piers Corbyn. I doubt he has the strat bug

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MR EXTREMES]

indeed fantastic work absolutely the most intresting year of net weather watching infact ever in my life and the strat is indeed a very complicated thing but with the right people all contributing to this thread not just this thread all of them on net weather ive been addicted to the net weather bug for years now.

still open minded about the outcome of this event but quietly confident that coldies like myself will see something by the end of winter.

even here on the sunny tropical southcoast lol.

[Eskimo]

Now that this warming is taking place, would there need to be subsequent warmings in order for the PV to stay away, e.g from reforming?

Edited January 5, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[lorenzo]

Don't worry Perfect storm it is getting nuked.

[Suburban Streamer]

Now that this warming is taking place, would there need to be subsequent warmings in order for the PV to stay away, e.g from reforming?

I believe we do need that secondary warming to keep the vortex at bay. Current warming displaces the pv but the secondary will split it

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.weer.nl/weer-in-het-nieuws/weernieuws/ch/346b0f930c48728b2a11e2615b6dbec1/article/winterweer_in_zicht.html

Excellent new. Dutch weather organisation Meteo Consult is picking up the stratospheric developments as well. It´s becoming ´mainstream´.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Does all stratosphere warming in the winter mean cold weather?

[bluearmy]

No, just as a cold strat doesn't mean mild. Its far more complex as we have seen this winter thus far.

[cooling climate]

Does all stratosphere warming in the winter mean cold weather?

If it propagates downward into the troposphere it will normally initiate

a -AO response (blocking high pressure over the Arctic).This in turn

pushes cold air out of the Arctic to more southerly latitudes.

Not everywhere will be colder it depends where the blocks further south

set up.

Considering where the warming started and what the stratosphere and NWP

synoptic models are showing us it looks a good bet that we will be in

the firing line for some of the bitter Arctic air that is forced out from

the Arctic.

[Weather-history]

Evidence of the tropospheric polar vortex being shredded?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

[chionomaniac]

Evidence of the tropospheric polar vortex being shredded?

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/hgtcomp.html

Big differences there!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I have read that there are two further sudden stratos warmings to come and dates given are 17/18 and 31/1. Will be interesting to see how these dates fare.

BFTP

[UV-RAY]

Would a second SSW have a much quicker lag response due to the after effects of the first SSW, or are there no hard and fast rules and each one behaves slightly different?

Edited January 5, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[bluearmy]

Big differences there!

which is why i hate these charts. they are just 4 day reflections of the operational and include 2 days of low res gfs output ! why JH places so much value in them i really dont understand but he's been doing this a lot longer than me !

[Somersetwatcher]

A question from a relative newcomer to NW forums....can anyone tell me if its common to see three (or more) SSW's forecast consecutively in such a short space of time?

[bluearmy]

A question from a relative newcomer to NW forums....can anyone tell me if its common to see three (or more) SSW's forecast consecutively in such a short space of time?

there cannot be a SSW within 20 days of the original SSW. what we see are further warmings which are probably a consequence of the damage done by the initial warming. each SSW has its own characteristics and i dont claim to have studied them like ed has. i think this upcoming one is notable for the continued assaults on the vortex from further wave energy which results in the lsubsequent warmings around the polar region.

[Somersetwatcher]

Thanks for that clear answer bluearmy.

[AWD]

An interesting read for SSW enthusiasts;

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/ssw-animations/

Animations of all previously known SSW's.

[Buriedundersnow]

how are propagation forecasts going

[chionomaniac]

Great 10 hpa charts tonight. The SSW goes from strength to strength.