Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Weather-history]

The stratospheric model keeps showing the PV moving towards Siberia

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere;sess=9875834be9c334736c4d3a8eec38884cq

[chionomaniac]

Cool, Atlantic blocking structure at day -15/-16 leading to increased Wave 1.

GFS reacting to this ?

November meridional heat flux was also good in that respect:

If so, that will be a sustained wave 1 attack in 15-20 days time given this structure is likely to be in place for a good few days - takes us to around end December for MMW displacement type.

And that forecast is brewing up nicely as far as I am concerned. The depth and severity of next weeks cold spell may not be as much as some would like - but we shouldn't ignore the fact that the cold spell was well forecast teleconnectively and the H500 anomalies are pretty close to where they were suggested to be.

Remember 5 days ago when suggesting height rises to the NE I mentioned this:

Confidenceof this occurring fairly high - confidence of achieving a decent easterly - who knows at this point.

Well we got the height rises! (and some cold air!) At no point can the positioning of the stratospheric vortex guarantee cold but it certainly increases the chances.

So moving on what do I think will occur next?

Well we are seeing the translocation of the polar vortex from Canada to Siberia - another area where confidence of this occurring is quite high. The transfer of this energy has also left the door open for the Atlantic to push at the block. When looking at the bigger picture I had rather hoped to see a retrogression of the block from the NE to the NW, but it appears that we will see the block to the east slowly get eroded following the Atlantic attack.

However, following this occurring I think that heights will eventually rise again but this time to the NW. I suspect that the Atlantic attack will leave troughing over the UK for 5-10 days - not good for flooding - before the trough slowly moves east.

The forecast trough does have a look of MJO phase 2 about it:

So back to the original point of this post. The forecast translocation of the polar vortex to Siberia will be as a result of strong wave 1 activity and I suspect that we will see this in the upcoming ECM wave forecasts - so keep an eye out for them this week. The displacement is forecast in the GFS FI throughout the whole stratosphere

10 hPa

30 hPA

100 hPa

There appears to be a strong warming waiting in the wings at 10 hPa and the whole 30 hpa forecasts keeps Canadian warming as a feature.

And at this point (15+ days) we will have the opportunity for height rises to the NW - its just that we have a lot of weather to get through first. I certainly don't expect to see an entrenched long term zonal pattern to dominate for any period of time.

And just to show how strong a displacement can be look at the GFS 12 FI :

So my early guess would be for a northerly around the festive period - let's see how it plays out.

c

The stratospheric model keeps showing the PV moving towards Siberia

http://www.netweathe...4d3a8eec38884cq

Yes was writing about that as you posted!

[chionomaniac]

FI forecast from the 18Z at 10 hPa

Probably classified as a CW that - also not far off mean zonal winds reversal.

Anyone thinking that the tropospheric pv would set up shop over greenland should think again looking at that!

70 hpa chart illustrates this well

I'll stick with my northerly thoughts here....

[chionomaniac]

The forecast translocation of the polar vortex to Siberia will be as a result of strong wave 1 activity and I suspect that we will see this in the upcoming ECM wave forecasts - so keep an eye out for them this week.

For something like this......

Also, first signs of the pressure rises to the NW on the overnight GFS.

[Weather-history]

Well we are seeing the translocation of the polar vortex from Canada to Siberia - another area where confidence of this occurring is quite high.

It's becoming evident in the models. You can see it in the northern hemisphere ECM and GFS charts.

[cooling climate]

That is a very strong signal the GFS strat charts are giving out for a Canadian warming

with as you say CH a strong likely hood of blocking to the north west and a northerly

airflow developing over the UK and Europe in the run upto and over Christmas hopefully.

Obviously to far out to get excited about but would love to see the country adorned by

Christmas postcard scenes running up to and over the Christmas period.

[chionomaniac]

That is a very strong signal the GFS strat charts are giving out for a Canadian warming

with as you say CH a strong likely hood of blocking to the north west and a northerly

airflow developing over the UK and Europe in the run upto and over Christmas hopefully.

Obviously to far out to get excited about but would love to see the country adorned by

Christmas postcard scenes running up to and over the Christmas period.

Yes,cc.

I am going to predict an early New Year displacement SSW, now on the back of what I have seen so far. One that not only displaces the vortex, but then follows the complete disintergration of the vortex. Around the first 10 days in January.

This 10 hPa FI chart is setting things up nicely.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes,cc.

I am going to predict an early New Year displacement SSW, now on the back of what I have seen so far. One that not only displaces the vortex, but then follows the complete disintergration of the vortex. Around the first 10 days in January.

This 10 hPa FI chart is setting things up nicely.

So this nicely ties in with GP's forecast of a potential bitter 2nd half of January then?

[Weather-history]

A question: what are the favourable stratospheric conditions for the UK for nacreous clouds to be seen here? A northerly stratospheric flow if you can have one?

There were the spectacular displays during mid February 1996.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Weather-history

[johnholmes]

from a VERY basic perspective, the 30mb temperature profile went above the average line I think 30 Nov-1 Dec and is now dropping back.

My amateur way of using this is, 15-25 days after going up and similar to coming down, that is date of crossing the average curve SOMETIMES corresponds to a cold spell in the UK!

Utter tosh the more learned on here will probably say but it has worked 2009-10 and 2010-11 sort of!

[chionomaniac]

A question: what are the favourable stratospheric conditions for the UK for nacreous clouds to be seen here? A northerly stratospheric flow if you can have one?

There was the spectacular displays during mid February 1996.

I don't know, but it makes sense for a wave break (for moisture to enter the strat) followed by the Siberian displacement that allows the moisture entered over the Pacific area to travel this way?

[chionomaniac]

from a VERY basic perspective, the 30mb temperature profile went above the average line I think 30 Nov-1 Dec and is now dropping back.

My amateur way of using this is, 15-25 days after going up and similar to coming down, that is date of crossing the average curve SOMETIMES corresponds to a cold spell in the UK!

Utter tosh the more learned on here will probably say but it has worked 2009-10 and 2010-11 sort of!

I think you need to look at the mean zonal winds, John, to get a true idea of how the strat is behaving.....

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_10_2012_merra.pdf

Well below average due to the split with the displacement following.

[Weather-history]

I don't know, but it makes sense for a wave break (for moisture to enter the strat) followed by the Siberian displacement that allows the moisture entered over the Pacific area to travel this way?

Thanks

[Snowman.]

So this nicely ties in with GP's forecast of a potential bitter 2nd half of January then?

I wouldn't say secound half of January atm its looking too see most a January blocked just depends which half actually delivers.

[Weather-history]

Right at the end but what is that warming over Mongolia?

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121209/12/384/npst30.png

Edited December 9, 2012 by Weather-history

[chionomaniac]

Right at the end but what is that warming over Mongolia?

http://www.netweathe...d864fe5dc570bea

The start.

[AWD]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121209/12/384/npst30.png

Are there two warming's here?

One over Canada & one over Korea/Japan area?

Sorry, I look at these cgarts quite often & i haven't seen many like the above before.

Edited December 9, 2012 by AWD

[chionomaniac]

Yes,cc.

I am going to predict an early New Year displacement SSW, now on the back of what I have seen so far. One that not only displaces the vortex, but then follows the complete disintergration of the vortex. Around the first 10 days in January.

This 10 hPa FI chart is setting things up nicely.

Hello, what have we here?

[lorenzo]

...something more significant than an Easterly to chase down !!

Meteociel has -16.

[Cheshire Freeze]

...something more significant than an Easterly to chase down !!

Meteociel has -16.

Tiny patch of -12

[feb1991blizzard]

Tiny patch of -12

If you look really close, there looks to me to be a really really tiny patch of -8c.

[chionomaniac]

If you look really close, there looks to me to be a really really tiny patch of -8c.

And if you step back it is the trend that is all important!!

Tonights 18Z GFS is the type of transition that I expected from Scandi high towards Greenland. I guess it is difficult to know how much energy the Atlantic will throw at the block. Still, I enjoy the synoptics..

[Recretos]

I might be young and inexperienced in life, but I can sure as hell spot a Polar Vortex in trouble, when I see one.

[feb1991blizzard]

And if you step back it is the trend that is all important!!

Tonights 18Z GFS is the type of transition that I expected from Scandi high towards Greenland. I guess it is difficult to know how much energy the Atlantic will throw at the block. Still, I enjoy the synoptics..

Yes, sorry if i came across as a bit pedantic, every tiny step is a stage closer though, i enjoy watching the runs come out, even with my limited knowledge but it is the chase that keeps me going and gives me the buzz, im not sure whether i would rather have an 87 or 63 or whatever, count all the way down from an initial 10hpa warming until a belting surface easterly smoothly, or whether i would rather have the ups and downs of the last week but still get there in the end, sorry if ive gone off topic but i listen to the experts in here and hang on every little positive, thanks for the time and effort chiono and all.

[Gael_Force]

If you look really close, there looks to me to be a really really tiny patch of -8c.

The Instant weather maps conveniently show the max and min - in this case it is -11.1

http://i.imgur.com/cIUDn.gif