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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

winter 2012 2013

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#541 garbagebags

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 13:04

An intense system like that would probably have a fairly large warm sector associated with it so snowfall would probably be limited to higher ground and transient snowfall across lower levels.


Even if it came from all the way up there?

Model discussion threads are for "weather that's likely" not "weather we like"


#542 Radiating Dendrite

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 13:08

Even if it came from all the way up there?


I think you are meaning a polar low.

#543 garbagebags

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 13:12

I think you are meaning a polar low.


thanks, I don't really know what I'm on about lol. New to all this, But as an uneducated guess, I would have assumed that a hurricane type low pressure event but thats come from the north Pole and slammed into us would be the most extreme? Plenty cold and full of moisture

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#544 Daniel Smith

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 13:12

Hi guys, Just wanted to know if a Thames streamer can affect my area. I live in NW London. I remember last time SE London was hit bad and we got nothing?


Yep, it all depends on the direction of the wind. I had a Thames streamer bring 1 foot of snow in 2010 but the Thames streamer in 2009 gave me about 2 inches whilst London got 8inches, the direction of the flow is key to Thames Streamers and who gets the snowfall from them.

Even if it came from all the way up there?


Low pressure systems are driven by warmer air within the system (very basically speaking, its more complicated) and the more intense the system, the warmer the warm sector. Ideally what we'd want is a weaker, shallower area of Low Pressure coming down, the warm sector, whilst still warmer than the surrounding air would probably be cold enough to keep the snow as snowfall.

Low Pressure systems are risky business when it comes to snowfall, I'd much rather an area of Low Pressure Eastwards to the South of the UK tightening Isobars strengthening winds from the East and giving sufficient forcing for heavy showers/bands of snow to develop from the North Sea.

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#545 summer blizzard

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 13:17

In such an intense low scenario even the origin would not help us because of the warmer sector associated with it which would likely mean a rain to snow event at best, additionally with the source being so cold the cold front would likely be fairly dead once it reached England.

The best scenario for me would be a front approaching from the south west and then stalling as it slowly moved east so a October 1987 track, Channel Low tracking too far north. With that said the best single event was 6th January 2010 which saw a front stall as a wave developed from the north, i got 21cm in 10 hours.
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#546 Backtrack

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 13:58

Thanks for that! I think I'll go any slit my wrists now...!!! Posted ImagePosted Image


Posted Image
Obviously no one can predict the weather for winter in September accurately, but after this year's disappointing weather all year round, I am not expecting for a turn of fortunes come late-November!

Edited by Backtrack, 27 September 2012 - 13:59 .

Winter 2012/2013

Snow lying: January: 18th (5-6cm, blowing snow) 19th (3-4cm level) 20th (3-4cm level, slight top up) 21st (5-6cm, proper snow). 25th Jan - (5-6 inches) 26th Jan (a load of slush 3-5cm).
Snow falling: January 18th,19th,20th,21st, 23rd, 25th.
Min temp: -2.1C
Max temp: 13C.

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12z GEFS suite is very strong on blocking to our N and NE, with an equally strong (if not stronger) signature for block to retrogress towards Greenland in the extended frames as the pv is transferred towards Siberia (which has been a consistent signal now for a few days).

Get set. It's coming.


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#547 Thundery wintry showers

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 14:30

One scenario that hasn't been mentioned yet is the situation where we get embedded fronts and troughs in an arctic or continental airstream, which can bring belts of organised snowfall in an otherwise showery regime. This happened widely on the 5th/6th January 2010. The snowfalls over SE Scotland and NE England on the evenings of the 26th and 27th November 2010 were similarly enhanced by weak occluded fronts out in the North Sea. Such disturbances are often still associated with pools of comparitively warm air, but nothing like the warm airmasses that get into the mix around depressions associated with Atlantic fronts.

The 27th January 1996 was a good "easterly" example- many of us saw sunshine and snow showers on the 26th, and then a weak front moved over on the 27th and gave mostly cloudy weather with snow for southern Scotland and the northern half of England.

However many of the biggest snowfalls in central and western Britain, which are sheltered from North Sea convection, have historically arisen from "battleground" events with Atlantic weather systems pushing in and then stalling against cold arctic and/or continental air. In those situations areas on the poleward flank of the fronts can pick up large amounts of snow, although to the south and west of that it will often turn milder with rain, so we end up with euphoria for some snow lovers and disappointment for others depending on location. In most places near the North Sea, though, frontal battlegrounds tend to produce rather less than convection off the North Sea.

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#548 shedhead

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 14:34

The 16th December also brought the biggest snow event of the winter to the Tyne and Wear area. A small band of rain moved northwards overnight 15th/16th, ahead of the main frontal belt that affected Stoke, and then it retreated southwards, turning to snow as it did so. As a result, Cleadon had a few centimetres of snow, with more than that in some inland places and on higher ground. Showers followed behind off the North Sea although they turned to hail and sleet as a pool of slightly milder air moved in, and this trimmed away some of the snow cover. Nonetheless, there was more than 50% snow cover at Cleadon on the mornings of the 17th and 18th.

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

#549 garbagebags

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 14:53

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.


Only by looking at the past can we make sense of the future

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#550 Daniel Smith

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 14:56

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.


Nothing wrong with talking about past winters, surely? It's not like we can really gauge anything new about the up-coming winter today.

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#551 Mark N

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 15:00

Nothing wrong with talking about past winters, surely? It's not like we can really gauge anything new about the up-coming winter today.


Spot on, i don't see what the problem is with discussing our favourite winters etc.. it basically is leading us upto the coming winter, plus we can look at patterns and also what we would like to see this year in reference to what we have experienced in the past.

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Winter 2013/14
Frosts- 10
Lowest Temperature:- -3.3c December 3rd.
Snow falling/lying = 0/0 days

#552 Optimus Prime

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 15:06

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.


Not really looking forward to the winter as you put it. Here come the dark mild drizzly days and at a time of the year when people start to get miserable and nature outside looks dead.

I'm looking forward to summer 2013. Or April 2013.
May to the 27th
Mean Max 16.5c (-1.0c)
Mean Min 8.3c (+0.4c)
Mean 12.4c (-0.3c)

(Reference period 2004-2011)

#553 Snowstorm1

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 15:16

Im really looking forward to the winter as you put it. Here come the dark cold snowy days and the time of the year when people start to get happy and nature outside looks beautiful covered in the white crisp snowfall.

I'm looking forward to summer 2013. Or April 2013.


Edited the post for you mate :D

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#554 gsteruk

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 15:20

Not really looking forward to the winter as you put it. Here come the dark mild drizzly days and at a time of the year when people start to get miserable and nature outside looks dead.

I'm looking forward to summer 2013. Or April 2013.


why are you browsing and posting in a winter thread then?? lol

#555 Mrs Trellis

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 15:21

Bearing in mind that winter is still around 9 weeks' away...reminiscing about weather that's actually happened seems only reasonable. How many different ways are there, for saying: I want it to snow, or I want another '47/'63?

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#556 zEROwantsnow

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 15:27

http://www.snsk.no/l....145587.en.html

looks nice ^^

#557 Snowman31

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 17:21

Yep, it all depends on the direction of the wind. I had a Thames streamer bring 1 foot of snow in 2010 but the Thames streamer in 2009 gave me about 2 inches whilst London got 8inches, the direction of the flow is key to Thames Streamers and who gets the snowfall from them.



Low pressure systems are driven by warmer air within the system (very basically speaking, its more complicated) and the more intense the system, the warmer the warm sector. Ideally what we'd want is a weaker, shallower area of Low Pressure coming down, the warm sector, whilst still warmer than the surrounding air would probably be cold enough to keep the snow as snowfall.

Low Pressure systems are risky business when it comes to snowfall, I'd much rather an area of Low Pressure Eastwards to the South of the UK tightening Isobars strengthening winds from the East and giving sufficient forcing for heavy showers/bands of snow to develop from the North Sea.


I assume being in the NW of London would mean I would needa SE'ly wind direction?

#558 TEITS

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 17:43

Personally I prefer convective snowfall compared to frontal. The simple reason being is heavy snowfalls can occur from E/NE,lys in my location and at times the airmass can be bitterly cold. This means the type of snow is often powdery and the snow ratio is excellent. The lying snow lasted ages during Dec 2009 due to a combination of weak sun, low temps but also the type of snow that had fallen. I often find frontal snowfall is more marginal and at times the dewpoints are much higher compared to a cold convective E,ly.

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#559 Snowmadsam

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 18:11

One scenario that hasn't been mentioned yet is the situation where we get embedded fronts and troughs in an arctic or continental airstream, which can bring belts of organised snowfall in an otherwise showery regime. This happened widely on the 5th/6th January 2010. The snowfalls over SE Scotland and NE England on the evenings of the 26th and 27th November 2010 were similarly enhanced by weak occluded fronts out in the North Sea. Such disturbances are often still associated with pools of comparitively warm air, but nothing like the warm airmasses that get into the mix around depressions associated with Atlantic fronts.

The 27th January 1996 was a good "easterly" example- many of us saw sunshine and snow showers on the 26th, and then a weak front moved over on the 27th and gave mostly cloudy weather with snow for southern Scotland and the northern half of England.

However many of the biggest snowfalls in central and western Britain, which are sheltered from North Sea convection, have historically arisen from "battleground" events with Atlantic weather systems pushing in and then stalling against cold arctic and/or continental air. In those situations areas on the poleward flank of the fronts can pick up large amounts of snow, although to the south and west of that it will often turn milder with rain, so we end up with euphoria for some snow lovers and disappointment for others depending on location. In most places near the North Sea, though, frontal battlegrounds tend to produce rather less than convection off the North Sea.


The Western Side of Wales can also benefit from the Pembrokeshire Dangler...this occurred in November 2005 and brought quite a lot of snowfall.

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#560 mullender83

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 18:21

Personally I prefer convective snowfall compared to frontal. The simple reason being is heavy snowfalls can occur from E/NE,lys in my location and at times the airmass can be bitterly cold. This means the type of snow is often powdery and the snow ratio is excellent. The lying snow lasted ages during Dec 2009 due to a combination of weak sun, low temps but also the type of snow that had fallen. I often find frontal snowfall is more marginal and at times the dewpoints are much higher compared to a cold convective E,ly.


I like snow which ever direction it is from however in our case an easterly doesn't often produce more than the odd flurry for us here in west and a northerly is also dire as you watch wales block all the showers so for me it has to be an atlantic battleground or channel low scenario. The odds are low like winning like the lottery... but get all your numbers right and you win big! Posted Image I think it was a week in feb 2009 maybe when we ended up with over 2 foot over a few days from several marginal events. Elevation helps too.

2013/2014 Autumn/winter

Days of Snow falling - 8
Days with sleet - 3
Days of snow lying - 2  (0 by met office standards) 

Ice Days - 0