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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

You live in a large city, but with pretty snowy winters by UK standards. I think you've got it good.

I agree, only 2 Decembers (2002 and 2006) have not seen now, every other winter month has this century.

In England, probably Newcastle is the only major city that is snowier (possible smaller cities like Norwich as well).

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Nearly October now, we could all be seeing snow in a months time! mega_shok.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

you nether know we might have snow in less then a month

You're just getting carried away now. :-) Forget snow in October for England despite what the record books might say about unusual events. You'll just end up disappointed. Mid november onwards and things start getting interesting...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Weather Services International are going for a Mild and Wet Autumn / Early winter for western Europe this year

While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.â€

http://www.wsi.com/f4929e77-a7e9-4c8e-8f0a-63dfaa78e708/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

you nether know we might have snow in less then a month

It was the first time in 70 years when it snowed in London in October 2008, so like catacol said, dont get your hopes up. Also, keep in mind November snow is not that common either sorry.gif

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Weather Services International are going for a Mild and Wet Autumn / Early winter for western Europe this year

http://www.wsi.com/f...ase-details.htm

good.gif

there wrong, dont listen. Met said below average autumn/december.

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

you nether know we might have snow in less then a month

Not at our elevations, need to be above 300m asl, for decent snow in 0ct, off -5 upper air, best ive done in 0ct was heavy non settling snow, holiday week in 2008

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Weather Services International are going for a Mild and Wet Autumn / Early winter for western Europe this year

http://www.wsi.com/f...ase-details.htm

good.gif

Read their ''Forecast'' and have got to say that from all the forecasts I've read thus far this Winter, that one rates below even the Mad Man Maddens.

I'd say that IF Blocking were to happen it would be MORE likely early on in Winter same for a Negative NAO..they are indicating the opposite to be true.

In fact this evenings GFS shows Northern Blocking deep into FI.

So I would personally Bin that forecast for those reasons.

In response to one of the other comments about the Met Office...thus far their predictions of a colder than normal set up with Northern blocking right the way through winter and colder Temperatures is pretty much on it's own.

I think the majority of models are ALL going for a wet Winter though, I've not seen a single model going for a drier than average Winter, so for me that's the only thing that remains consistent throughout all the Long Range models.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Im not sure how we'l cope with a wet winter so that's not a great option right now. Unless however, its a colder than usual and wetter than usual winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It must be going to be mild - I haven't seen any (misbehaving) hedgehogs yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Im not sure how we'l cope with a wet winter so that's not a great option right now. Unless however, its a colder than usual and wetter than usual winter.

CFS V2 is going for an average winter rain wise for just about all, the exception been the south east

euPrecSeaInd3.gif

And for temps......................

euT2mSeaInd3.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

CFS V2 is going for an average winter rain wise for just about all, the exception been the south east

euPrecSeaInd3.gif

And for temps......................

euT2mSeaInd3.gif

Not a good sign at all!!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Read their ''Forecast'' and have got to say that from all the forecasts I've read thus far this Winter, that one rates below even the Mad Man Maddens.

I'd say that IF Blocking were to happen it would be MORE likely early on in Winter same for a Negative NAO..they are indicating the opposite to be true.

In fact this evenings GFS shows Northern Blocking deep into FI.

So I would personally Bin that forecast for those reasons.

In response to one of the other comments about the Met Office...thus far their predictions of a colder than normal set up with Northern blocking right the way through winter and colder Temperatures is pretty much on it's own.

I think the majority of models are ALL going for a wet Winter though, I've not seen a single model going for a drier than average Winter, so for me that's the only thing that remains consistent throughout all the Long Range models.

Bin it because you say northern blocking and -NAO will happen early and the GFS has northern blocking deep in F1 which is up to when exactly?...mid October?..neither of which seems a good enough reason to bin this forecast.

If on the other hand they dont back up their claims then thats different a much better reason for me

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Bin it because you say northern blocking and -NAO will happen early and the GFS has northern blocking deep in F1 which is up to when exactly?...mid October?..neither of which seems a good enough reason to bin this forecast.

If on the other hand they dont back up their claims then thats different a much better reason for me

Yes but you forget one thing...I see ALL blum.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The latest CFS charts for winter have backed away from the 2 week old ones posted above.

Average looking temperatures overall.

Higher than normal Precipitation anomalies over France and Spain suggesting a

southerly tracking jet perhaps.

Note the drier than normal area over western Scotland.

Is that a patch of blue over southern England for January? good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

CFS V2 is going for an average winter rain wise for just about all, the exception been the south east

euPrecSeaInd3.gif

And for temps......................

euT2mSeaInd3.gif

I've only got one thing to say regarding CFS output.rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif It's completely useless regarding whatever it's showing!
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

The latest CFS charts for winter have backed away from the 2 week old ones posted above.

Average looking temperatures overall.

Higher than normal Precipitation anomalies over France and Spain suggesting a

southerly tracking jet perhaps.

Note the drier than normal area over western Scotland.

Is that a patch of blue over southern England for January? good.gif

Yes I agree that does look very indicative of a Southerly Jet Stream, and also indicative of Northerly blocking, that's a very good update from the CFS for those wanting a cold winter :-)

But I'm still not overly convinced were going to see a cold Winter, due to nothing else than my gut instincts and incredible powers of foresight :-)

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

Yes I agree that does look very indicative of a Southerly Jet Stream, and also indicative of Northerly blocking, that's a very good update from the CFS for those wanting a cold winter :-)

But still looking average, no major cold, still dissapointing

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

But still looking average, no major cold, still dissapointing

Yeah but it's a step in the right direction, and don't forget an ''average'' Winter would still give us a decent shot at seeing the odd cold spell with a couple of major ''snow events'' ..it really is early doors though and until we get a better idea of the Stratospheric Vortex over the Pole is doing come Mid November we'll not be able to fill the jigsaw ...I just don't feel in my bones a cold Winter this time around and haven't done all year.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

well my bones tell me its going to be a cold, snowy one this year - they have been right for the last 3 years.....

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