South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - September 15th 2012>

[Kent Snow]

A generally overcast day with thick altostratus. Maximum 16C.

[Coast]

Can someone explain to me briefly what this Atlantic system will be bringing us if it stays on track?

Briefly? Rain!!

Can someone explain to me briefly what this Atlantic system will be bringing us if it stays on track?

Briefly? Rain!!

[Eskimo]

11.1C here now, dropping quickly now

[Lauren]

Briefly? Rain!!

Briefly? Rain!!

Alright, I heard you the first time!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

central pressure 984 shizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[fergieweather]

central pressure 984 shizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Yes. Monday looks troubling for E'rn/SE'rn districts, based on new UKMO-GM and latest ECM. Prior to that, rainfall totals via SW/W Country equally bothersome. An interesting period, for sure. It's caused (and continues to cause) innumerable forecast headaches.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay here are my 2 maps one on wind and one on rain..I want to see how close I get, this is all based on what I have seen today in regards to model posts and looking at the models myself...No means a warning (although warnings will be needed, as the met have them up already) just a guess at what to come...Bit of a test of my knowledge feel free to have your views CHEERS!

High Wind areas 40-50MPH winds

High rainfall areas, the blue areas indicate high rainfall the yellow areas indicate the areas with most rainfall

Thank you Stay safe in this coming week Autumn wants to make itself known to us, and well I think that is going to happen late Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and even possibly Wednesday

Edited September 21, 2012 by Surrey

[suffolkboy_]

central pressure 984 shizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

That chart actually shows the low with a pressure of less than 980mb!........isobars are in 4mb increments.

Quite interested in what will be happening with this low come Tuesday onwards. Some models have shown the centre becoming a bit flabby over the eastern half of the uk. Could mean some slow moving heavy showers.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That chart actually shows the low with a pressure of less than 980mb!........isobars are in 4mb increments.

Quite interested in what will be happening with this low come Tuesday onwards. Some models have shown the centre becoming a bit flabby over the eastern half of the uk. Could mean some slow moving heavy showers.

Oh right okay, that's low! Other models want to spin it right over on itself and come back south again!!!

[Keraunic]

Raining here in Ippy now and it's chilly and quite breezy.

Night night all. âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡â˜â˜â˜

[Snowangel-MK]

Raining here in Ippy now and it's chilly and quite breezy.

Night night all. âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡â˜â˜â˜

Same here K ......and it's been a long day I think I'm going to go to bed soon night night !

[Coast]

Yes. Monday looks troubling for E'rn/SE'rn districts, based on new UKMO-GM and latest ECM. Prior to that, rainfall totals via SW/W Country equally bothersome. An interesting period, for sure. It's caused (and continues to cause) innumerable forecast headaches.

Don't blame your guys for the collective headache on this one Ian, a nightmare to forecast!

[john pike]

afax chart take on things

saturday

easy to predict sunshine and temperatures mid to high teens

sunday dry morning

becoming increasingly wet and windy in the afternoon

sunday night heavy rain moving north

isobars tightening so very early morning

potential 50plus mile per hour gusts

low pressure has moved over east anglia on monday

still strong gusty winds and very heavy rain

isobars look very tight over east anglia area

tuesday still shows gusty winds and heavy showers rather than prolonged heavy rain

running on the raw fax

the low moves back to the south east on wednesday

be prepared for some local flooding winds not an issue here

thursday low pressure nearby would give sunshine and heavy showers

feeling cold in a cold northerly flow

keep an eye on wind speeds on sunday night through to tuesday

gusts could be higher than shown due to the uncertain track of the low

radar is only true indicator of the low

updated wednesday fax shows the low back over the south east

heavy rain and gusty winds

[gottolovethisweather]

Due to the fact that this could become a rather noteworthy end to the weekend and beyond.

I will post another post from elsewhere, which I think is very much worth paying attention to.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74255-model-output-discussion-26082012/page__st__620#entry2369908

[Coast]

Still raining Monday.......

[john pike]

sea temperatures at present

what i find interesting about this low pressure

is the direction it comes from will have the low

spinning in high sea temperatures then low sea temperatures

be fascinating to see what reaction this will have

[Buzzit]

Things are starting to take shape on the satellite... http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

I wouldnt be suprised to see an impact from this earlier than expected (be it wind or rain)

[ZONE 51]

The uncertainty of track and intensity of this potential deep low or storm is a concern, looking at the data/models i'm worried, and of course very interested. This is something that is quite rare to occur, to develop the way it could and the types of interactions that are possible, and the area of these developments. What we could be looking at is a fast development very close to the time of landfall, as things interact(temperatures/Jet).

Edited September 22, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[john pike]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2206553/After-Indian-summer-set-frost-gales-gritters-weather-skips-season.html?openGraphAuthor=%2Fhome%2Fsearch.html%3Fs%3D%26authornamef%3DTamara%2BCohen

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Monday afternoon is when it looks like the highest winds will hit :/

[Coast]

Morning peeps!

A lovely sunny start to the weekend which belies a very interesting period of weather coming up for the next few days. Time to dig out the wellies and So'westers and hunker down tomorrow!

I'm pretty sure we will see some localised flooding if this lot comes down:

[Steve C]

Morning all, from sunny Scunny.

Looking forward to the coming meteorological event.

[Coast]

Remember these characteristics are in the storm itself:

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite flew over Nadine on Sept. 20 at 0917 UTC (5:17 a.m. EDT) and gathered rainfall data. "TRMM data showed that convection developed near Nadine's center, indicating that Nadine is more characteristic of a tropical cyclone than expected," said Hal Pierce, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Hal overlaid the data from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS) and TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) to create a full picture of rainfall occurring in the storm. The rainfall analysis indicated that the maximum intensity of rainfall is about 20 mm/hr (~ 0.8 inches). The Azores is shown being affected by a rain band from Nadine. Infrared satellite data revealed that convection (rising air that form the thunderstorms that make up the cyclone) around Nadine's inner-core has increased and become better organized since Sept. 19. Infrared data also indicated an eye-like feature.

TRMM is a joint mission of NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, JAXA.

NASA's HS3 Global Hawk Examines Nadine

As part of the HS3 mission, NASA's Global Hawk unmanned aircraft took off from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops, Va. at 2:42 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, Sept. 19 and crossed the Atlantic to make measurement of Tropical Storm Nadine. Nadine is currently located in the Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Island chain.

The science portion of the flight was completed on Sept. 20. Scientists reported that they obtained excellent data from the dropsonde system, which showed some winds on the western side of the storm still reaching 60 knots (69 mph/111 kmh) at middle levels and possibly one measurement of near 60 knots (69 mph/111 kmh) near the surface. The data suggest that Nadine is still a tropical system rather than extratropical. The National Hurricane Center mentioned the data in their morning discussion of Nadine.

The three science instruments aboard the Global Hawk performed extremely well, transmitting their data back to NASA Wallops for the scientists to analyze and discuss. The plane observed Nadine for more than 12 hours. This was the 3rd flight of the Global Hawk to investigate this tropical storm. The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were using the data supplied by NASA's Global Hawk and noted in the discussion of Nadine at 11 a.m. EDT on Sept. 20, "The current intensity is kept at 45 knots (51.7 mph/83.3 kmh)…is in good agreement with dropsonde data from the NASA global hawk aircraft and AMSU [instrument] estimates."

Nadine's Current Status

As Nadine pulls away, a tropical storm warning was still in effect on Sept. 20 for the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira, Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the Azores. These areas are also expected to continue dealing with rough ocean swells over the next few days.

On Sept. 20 at 11 a.m. EDT, Nadine was located 165 miles (265 km) south-southwest of Pico in the Azores Islands. It was centered near 36.2 North latitude and 29.4 West longitude. Nadine's maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph (85 kmh). Nadine was moving to the east-southeast at 10 mph (17 kmh) and had a minimum central pressure of 981 millibars.

Nadine's atmospheric steering mechanism, a strong mid-tropospheric trough (elongated area) of low pressure is expected to move to the northeast, and leave the tropical storm in a region of weaker steering winds, so Nadine could start meandering over the next couple of days.

http://www.pddnet.co...characteristics

Look at the helicity over us tomorrow:

Thankfully it doesn't bring to much in the way of gusts:

But keep an eye out for tornadoes/spouts in the next couple of days,

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

I'm very disappointed not to have seen the meteor shower or whatever it was last night...there was a big ball of fire in the sky here this morning....

...but on closer inspection it turned out to be the sun #panicoverendoftheworldisnottoday

[NO LONGER POSTING]

could this be the start?