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Winter 2012 / 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

Greetings from Cork aka the snowless zone of Europebiggrin.png

Looking good for the Winter ahead, many nights of model drama to look fwd to!]

quote name='January Snowstorm' timestamp='1348088806' post='2368621']

Greetings from Cork aka the snowless zone of Europebiggrin.png

Looking good for the Winter ahead, many nights of model drama to look fwd to!

Yeah, but you get tons of rain in Cork, so if it was a few degrees cooler you'd be buried!

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Very unlucky then Aaron, 30 miles South South West of you certainly got pasted, There is a pub called the Snake Pass Inn on the A57 Snake Pass Manchester to Sheffield trans pennine road and there is a picture inside of the Jan 1987 snow event, or there was when i went in 2006, there looked to be drifts in excess of 8 feet deep by the side of the road.

Pretty sure it was the same for a large part of northern England, same with 1963 I suspect, not great for snow, but what snow did fall, remained for a long time.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

just a thought.... with FI charts showing a cold latter half of autumn, bearing in mind that the met office are usually very vague in their longer term forecasts, after taking a pasting for them in the past, here's a snippet from their 16-30 day forecast-

"Temperatures are likely to be generally below or perhaps well below average, especially by day." cold.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

I can't understand what all the excitement is about , I've been checking the CFS charts over the past few weeks, and December has consistently been showing to be mild, the -5 upper 850 dam line barely touches the UK, for the vast majority on the month, in fact I've seen the whole uk in +10 uppers in some runs for days at a time in Dec

snowfall in October is nice, but more annoying than anything else as it would be gone by late morning for most of us...if it fell in the daytime it would be unlikely to settle

I've tried to find a general pattern in the CFS for October / November and December, which is probably a pointless exercise in any case, anyway...my analysis is that the majority of October and particularly mid-late November look to be much cooler than one would expect for that time of year, December looks markedly mild, and then the CFS has for several runs on and off, turned things much cooler as we head into 2013 and the first half of Jan with the -12 dam line touching the East of the UK on occasion.

Anyway, that's my opinion, but in fairness the GFS can't even make up it's mind about Ex Hurricane Nadine which is a CURRENT developing situation, so what chance is there of the CFS getting anywhere near close to what will eventually come to pass many weeks away from now.

To sum up, don't get your hopes up this early, you set yourself up for disappointment and as one poster has already mentioned, predicting where it will snow even when we do have everything else in place, is only something that can be predicted with more than a 75% probability factor when it's literally on your doorstep...

that being said...BRING ON THE SNOW for winter 2012/2013-)

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Burntwood, Staffs
  • Location: Burntwood, Staffs

this is what i'm looking forward to...

Yeah!

I've got one in my lounge.

Perfect terminus for a single malt accompanied by scary film on TV.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I am currently working on a long-range forecast for the winter season. The preliminary data are strongly suggesting a mild start lasting well into January, and a colder than normal February. I am also seeing indications of a stormy pattern during the milder portion of the winter and a strongly blocked pattern in the cold February.

The same preliminary analysis shows virtually the opposite pattern over eastern North America, cold in January and mild in February.

The ice-free anomaly north of Russia needs further consideration, logic would say that if large areas freeze late or fail to freeze in that sector, that pressures would remain low around Murmansk to NZemlya and this would not favour Scandinavian high pressure until late in the season at least.

I will publish a more detailed outlook in mid-October.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

this is what i'm looking forward to...

Got one of them going at the moment. Currently 6.3c cold.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I am currently working on a long-range forecast for the winter season. The preliminary data are strongly suggesting a mild start lasting well into January, and a colder than normal February. I am also seeing indications of a stormy pattern during the milder portion of the winter and a strongly blocked pattern in the cold February.

The same preliminary analysis shows virtually the opposite pattern over eastern North America, cold in January and mild in February.

The ice-free anomaly north of Russia needs further consideration, logic would say that if large areas freeze late or fail to freeze in that sector, that pressures would remain low around Murmansk to NZemlya and this would not favour Scandinavian high pressure until late in the season at least.

I will publish a more detailed outlook in mid-October.

Thats thrown a spanner in the works then.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

I am currently working on a long-range forecast for the winter season. The preliminary data are strongly suggesting a mild start lasting well into January, and a colder than normal February. I am also seeing indications of a stormy pattern during the milder portion of the winter and a strongly blocked pattern in the cold February.

The same preliminary analysis shows virtually the opposite pattern over eastern North America, cold in January and mild in February.

The ice-free anomaly north of Russia needs further consideration, logic would say that if large areas freeze late or fail to freeze in that sector, that pressures would remain low around Murmansk to NZemlya and this would not favour Scandinavian high pressure until late in the season at least.

I will publish a more detailed outlook in mid-October.

shhh... roger.... publish that one in january.....ph34r.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I am currently working on a long-range forecast for the winter season. The preliminary data are strongly suggesting a mild start lasting well into January, and a colder than normal February. I am also seeing indications of a stormy pattern during the milder portion of the winter and a strongly blocked pattern in the cold February.

The same preliminary analysis shows virtually the opposite pattern over eastern North America, cold in January and mild in February.

The ice-free anomaly north of Russia needs further consideration, logic would say that if large areas freeze late or fail to freeze in that sector, that pressures would remain low around Murmansk to NZemlya and this would not favour Scandinavian high pressure until late in the season at least.

I will publish a more detailed outlook in mid-October.

Hi RJS

Interesting analysis, lets hope that the milder portion doesn't take up whole of Jan....I have had a view point since mid 80s, if colder weather doesn't start to take hold during Jan [last week is fine] then its good bye winter.

Cold rush in Nov I think...then ?

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Hi all, interesting discussion and i'm enjoying reading it. I don't usually get excited this early for really cold weather, last year at this time things were looking different on the data/analysis for long range forecasts to what they do now, this year there are more cold factors, more reasons to why we could see an early cold spell, and i expect the first real taste of wintry conditions to be november, with the first low level snowfall.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

Going to be fun for me this year as I've just got rid of a 4WD Mitsi GTO and replaced it with a very tail happy MX5.

I guess there are a also a lot of new or inexperienced drivers who haven't driven in really snowy conditions and either slide to a stop blocking the road or worse. From my own point of view, I make less progress in my modern electronically stabilised and assisted car than I did in my old Mini's 30 years ago!. I end up turning off traction control ESS etc and try to regain control of the car from the computers just to make sensible forward progress, as modern vehicles (non 4WD) seem to want to just bring you to a halt in anything other than perfect conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Well my forecast a few pages back went something like this.

October - unsettled for most away from south east. Avg temps with cold interludes. Above avg rain. The occasional mild spell.

Nov - very unsettled. Stormy weather from the west, north - west bringing cold and plenty of rain. Freq snow on the mountains. South east corner again wilk escape worst of the weather.

By end of the month, greenland high trys to establish blocking.

Dec - greenland high becomes established and the mercuary drops. Persistant cold with heavy snow across majority of uk.

Block sticks around till january with only the

odd respite.

;)

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

All aboard the rampede Winter train then.

GFS... not CFS.. yes right at the end of the run and one out of many perturbations, but encouraging nonetheless..

post-7292-0-64513400-1348124592_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Much more popular than your "Summer 2012" thread, eh Gavin?

And that season was infinite - according to some!

Yes I agree much more popular

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

On this CFS run there are some decent charts but maily mild muck until up pops a chart that would be a stonker even in January.

cfs-0-4098.png

A London and South East transport rasberry rippler!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

On this CFS run there are some decent charts but maily mild muck until up pops a chart that would be a stonker even in January.

cfs-0-4098.png

A London and South East transport rasberry rippler!!

Looks like it would sink though. Too much of a SE source for my liking! blum.gif

Oh well, that will not be happening then anyway lol!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Looks like it would sink though. Too much of a SE source for my liking! blum.gif

Oh well, that will not be happening then anyway lol!

Not before you got some serious snowfall out of it though, some serious thames streamers, about a week of heavy snowfall potential for the SE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=4068&mode=0&carte=0&run=2

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