Autumn 2012

[Aaron]

I hope we get an early taste of winter again this year. I'd like to record a ground frost in September. No repeats of last year thanks, November 2011 will go down in my mind as one of the worst ever.

Edited July 31, 2012 by Aaron

[Guest]

In latter years we appear to have had some of our more settled periods about the equinox, such as last early spring - this appears to be becoming a habit, so I will plug for a settled first half of autumn with something of an indian summer until the wet season restarts about the middle of October, with some storms and high winds; after this until about the middle of December when I expect it to settle into a dryish coldish spell with some frosts and fogs, though the coldest part will be in January.

[syed2878]

september first 2 weeks sunny and hot with clear skys, then slowly getting cold with the first frost of winter. October rainy with autumn storms with the first snowfal and then november if we could have repete of 2010 but that's a dream, so if we could have november with cold and snow and not like last year i will be happy.

[Relativistic]

along with cool crisp nights for Astronomy...

Totally with you on that.

[Relativistic]

Mild and boring, no thanks.

November 2010 would do me!

Yep. I'd love a seasonal September and first half of October, then a frosty anti cyclonic spell late October, followed by a November 2010! Or a sub 2C November would do.

[Relativistic]

I hope we get an early taste of winter again this year. I'd like to record a ground frost in September. No repeats of last year thanks, November 2011 will go down in my mind as one of the worst ever.

The whole of last Autumn will go down, for me, as one of the worst ever.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

noticed the autumn feel a bit, even with standard SW wind, feels cool on a morning

[stewfox]

aaaaaaa why are we talking about winter in the summer

Where is the fun looking out of the window and looking at the actual weather ??

September hottest since records began in Mali is my prediction

[Methuselah]

If it stays warm until November 30th, I'll be happy...After that, it can get as cold and snowy as it likes...

[UV-RAY]

Where is the fun looking out of the window and looking at the actual weather ??

September hottest since records began in Mali is my prediction

Followed two weeks later by, "deep freeze to last until April".

[snowstorm445]

Well as we are now approaching the final Summer month I think it is time to start a thread looking at the coming Autumn and Winter.

Some people may think this too early, but we have similar threads for Spring/Summer in February Additionally, it is around this sort of time that we can start to get a taste for what teleconnections are going to be in play as move into September and so on.

So what are peoples thoughts? If you want to post a forecast, go ahead! Equally it would be nice to hear what some are looking forward too/hoping for

My gut feeling says that we will see average to mild winter weather for the majority of the winter. But I never trust my gut, so at the moment its anyone's guess.

What was so bad last year was that even though we did have a cold spell in February, Ireland/Scotland largely missed out because the easterlies couldn't reach us! The only snow we saw last winter was very wet north-westerly type snow that was gone by lunchtime!

Anyway, just for the record, this is a complete guessed forecast, but what the hell!

Late Summer/Autumn 2012 forecast:

August - Wet and cool at the start, warmer and sunnier by the end. CET coming in slightly above average. Rainfall heavier in the North and West.

September - A predominantly dry month, but seasonable temperatures, maybe the odd day of warmth. Colder towards the end.

October - A cooler than average month, with the potential for snow across parts of Highland Scotland, maybe even lower levels as well. Drier than normal, but becoming windier near the end of the month.

November - Stormy, average temperatures, above average rainfall. Snow possible over higher ground in Scotland and Northern England. A colder, but drier end to the month with some night frosts, milder further west.

Edited July 31, 2012 by snowstorm445

[Weather-history]

There were three months before this year, who have not had at least a 0.5C below the 1961-90 average value for a long time. Two of those did it this year, April and June, could we have a triple whammy with September? We are due such a September. If April and June can, so can September.

[Village]

Autumn 2012? It is Autumn already, so we just need to look out of the window to see what we have!

[damianslaw]

Tend to wait until the end of August before I give my thoughts on the Autumn. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing some preety decent weather in September, with longer lasting dry sunny weather, but not necessarily warm. It would be preety exceptional to see the current synoptics holding sway for another 2 months (he says, I said this at the start of June and look what has happened...).

September can be a lovely month - not as good as May and June in general feel, but often produces at least one spell of warm sunny dry weather. I highly doubt we will see another late sept/early oct 11 event.

The last proper seasonal autumn was 2008, it saw a classic cool down with the extreme snow event at the end of October. I don't want a repeat of last autumn - very unseasonal... An autumn like 2005 might be just the tonic on the back of what can only be classed a very dissapointing summer 2012 (there is no hiding from the fact the curtains are quickly drawing on this summer now... a decent second half to August can't make up for 2 and half shocking months...), 2 and half months of anomalous warmth and dryness followed by a sharp wintry second half to November.

Edited August 1, 2012 by damianslaw

[syed2878]

Guys a question. When is the start of winter in siberia?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Guys a question. When is the start of winter in siberia?

December - February.

[syed2878]

Ah ok thanks. The reason i asked because last year we had a thread snow and ice from mid august if i remembor and it was good to track the progress of the snow and ice.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yep.

I think it is important that you realise that in the Northern Hemisphere winter is always December to February. It is not defined by when the first snow arrives.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'll be intruiged to see how September 2012 will compare to the months of summer 2012.

Edited August 6, 2012 by A Winter's Tale

[Isolated Frost]

September- Hot, hot, hot with one potent blast at the end of the month

October- Lots of wind and rain and sleet and drizzle

November- Starts on the same note... and then we go into 2010-mode

[Aaron]

Yep.

I think it is important that you realise that in the Northern Hemisphere winter is always December to February. It is not defined by when the first snow arrives.

But in these locations the locals will say winter lasts from October until April because that's how long the subzero and snowy conditions last.

Just like in some locations, there is no winter or summer, just a perpetual single season.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on whether by "winter" the post meant "meteorological winter" (which is of course December to February) or "wintry weather", and the latter strikes me as more likely.

I think most parts of Siberia tend to turn cold and snowy by mid-October, although in years when we get a persistent west to south-westerly flow extending from the North Atlantic right into Siberia, it can take until mid to late November.

[Aaron]

Yes that's true, but on average average highs fall below freezing in October in the large Siberian cities.

[Village]

If its snow cover you are talking about, its quite reliable.....its like clockwork......one month after the equinox ....same as northern Canada.....so 21st October onwards for six months.

So in ten weeks they loose every degree above freezing point (thats about 2 C drop every week from now on) and dont get positive again until the third week of April.

On the other hand....we here have already lost all our heat so that today we already have temperatures we can expect for the middle of October.

Edited August 7, 2012 by Village

[Evening thunder]

September- Hot, hot, hot with one potent blast at the end of the month

October- Lots of wind and rain and sleet and drizzle

November- Starts on the same note... and then we go into 2010-mode

Mmm that would be a nice Autumn.

If only