Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Harry]

here we go again ,any potential now being put further east .although there could be a few surprises later today . i will live in the hope that us posters further west will get the spanish plumes later this month ,worth waiting for ,if only ,best of luck for those in hot spots today .

I don't mean to sound offensive, but have you bothered to read any of the preceding posts.......????

We dont have any potential....at best the MetO have said thunder will be isolated...all we're in for is torrential rain for an hour or two (if we're "lucky"), additional chaos to the already farcical London transport infrastructure caused by woefully inept drainage system dating back to when Queen Victoria hereself was a foetus, and yet more time wasted coiffing the ol' bonce this morning soon to be ruined by yet more rain greeting me as I leave the office to commence the depressing journey home.

Trust me legritter, I don't think you'll be missing much, other than more rain!!!! If I had a teleporter, I'd trade places with you in an instant!!!

Believe me, it's more frustrating finally being under a warning and it's for a slow moving heavy shower, lol.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some stuff from Norwich yesterday:

[Harry]

Some stuff from Norwich yesterday:

A picture of beauty!!!! Stunning images - some lush striations there along the (presumably) gust front.

How did you get those shots of the lightning? Video grabs?

Edited July 19, 2012 by Harry

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye- I took videos of the lightning and extracted some of the best "stills" using VirtualDub. It was convenient that the UEA has a little area by the residences that is under a roof but otherwise exposed to the elements, allowing storm-spotters to make the most of it yet stand in relative safety!

[Harry]

Merciful acknowledgement from Estofex

http://estofex.org/

[Evening thunder]

Some stuff from Norwich yesterday:

That's pretty impressive, Think I've just turned a little green looking at those!

[legritter]

I don't mean to sound offensive, but have you bothered to read any of the preceding posts.......????

We dont have any potential....at best the MetO have said thunder will be isolated...all we're in for is torrential rain for an hour or two (if we're "lucky"), additional chaos to the already farcical London transport infrastructure caused by woefully inept drainage system dating back to when Queen Victoria hereself was a foetus, and yet more time wasted coiffing the ol' bonce this morning soon to be ruined by yet more rain greeting me as I leave the office to commence the depressing journey home.

Trust me legritter, I don't think you'll be missing much, other than more rain!!!! If I had a teleporter, I'd trade places with you in an instant!!!

Believe me, it's more frustrating finally being under a warning and it's for a slow moving heavy shower, lol.

hands up i should have read previouse posts and taken this mornings latest detail into account .yes enough is enough lets have some bbq weather .as for the infrastructure drains etc in london if all this money ,i meen the realy big money paid to bankers etc etc had been better spent ,we would be better of in times of bad weather .we only need a hvy period of rain in bristol and its drains cant cope ,hope todays rain is your last for a while ,here the sun is out but certainly a nip in the air ,spoke to my son who works in central london and they are hoping for some good weather cheers for now LEGRITTER

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Some stuff from Norwich yesterday:

Wow that's a very impressive storm, and great pictures too.

Is that the end of your time in Norwich? If so then what a send off!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not really a send-off from Norwich as I finished full-time work there back in June 2011 and have been making just occasional trips back since. But the sentiments are still relevant as of course it was a great way to round off my celebrations of becoming a Dr.!

[Coast]

Merciful acknowledgement from Estofex

http://estofex.org/

Must have had a hangover from last night and got up late!!!! At least they picked the right area by the looks of it.....

[Eskimo]

Got the worst cold I have ever had...and it's summer, what a correlation. It won't stop me enjoying whatever today has to offer, if at all.

[Harry]

Got the worst cold I have ever had...and it's summer, what a correlation. It won't stop me enjoying whatever today has to offer, if at all.

I live with a pretty much eternal cold...and I had a fleece with me yesterday! Which for mid-July is quite frankly a joke!!!!!

[Kent Snow]

Absolutely throwing it down currently. Far heavier than it appears on the radar.

[Andy Bown]

Every time there is a W/NW flow with relatively low pressure a narrow shower streamer sets up from the Bristol Channel and moves inland

over Somerset/Wiltshire - it's just a matter of the exact wind direction as to which towns catch the showers.

No such shower streamer was forecast last night, even on the local BBC Points West with just a few scattered light showers shown on the

predicted rain map, however we were woken by torrential rain at around 01.45 and heavy showers (some very heavy) continued for much

of the rest of the night - waking us again soon after 05.30!

Reviewing the radar this morning a very narrow area was affected, my rain gauge received 10mm overnight from a forecast of scattered

light showers!

[Coast]

NW, SkyWarn and UKASF resolutely not issuing a forecast for today and with the charts earlier I can see why. Still not sure why the BBC were going for a definite thunderstorm warning for today for Sussex and Kent when it's hard enough to get them to mention the 'T' word at the best of times. The day's not over by any means and I'd love to see something break out, but the signs are not amazingly positive TBH

[Harry]

NW, SkyWarn and UKASF resolutely not issuing a forecast for today and with the charts earlier I can see why. Still not sure why the BBC were going for a definite thunderstorm warning for today for Sussex and Kent when it's hard enough to get them to mention the 'T' word at the best of times. The day's not over by any means and I'd love to see something break out, but the signs are not amazingly positive TBH

The only thing remotely positive is the development of small levels of SB CAPE with an LI of -1 around 18z. Up until that point though there's nothing.

Might squeeze a more vigorous cell later today but otherwise it's a pretty meagre day IMO.

[Coast]

otherwise it's a pretty meagre day IMO.

Still it could be worse......

No, you're right

[Thundery wintry showers]

Edit: quoted Norfolk Sheep picture upload deleted as requested:

I'm afraid I agree with Coast here- it looks pretty grim for convective potential down south today, thanks, at least in part, to a pesky weak front that has drifted southwards. I'd hoped to at least get sunshine and showers today, though of course after yesterday I can't really complain too much!

Edited July 19, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[Norfolk Sheep]

Delete that last cock up.....

Dear oh dear, what a palaver!!

The way I did it was simply to use the "advanced uploader" for N-W and uploaded a series of JPG files (it lets you upload 10 at a time).

Not sure how your pictures ended up like that- did you use some other means of uploading them? It looks like it's defaulted to a thumbnail view.

Yep, I stupidly pasted the URL from a thumbnail....duh!!!!

I didn't know there was an uploader for N-W

[Chris W]

Something heavy has been developing over Manchester north of the convergence line that has sat over Cheshire southeastwards to Suffolk all day. Don't know if it's going to become anything electrical, but it's heavy and growing.

[toggerob]

Been sat under the convergence line across the Pennines for some 4 hours now, low cloud bases and some deep-heavy showers passing by which has made it feel dark and gloomy all afternoon. Rain rates are mainly slight but some heavy downpours have occurred sporadically.

[Coast]

Morning all!

ESTOFEX says thunderstorms today....... if you're in Belgium or Holland

Simple GFS says there may be an isolated storm around the London area at the end of the afternoon:

But GFS detailed on Lightning Wizard doesn't have a big pool of CAPE there:

Although SBCAPE and spout chances are better:

Shear and convergence:

Lower and upper level lapse rates not special:

The tornado chart does cover London, Essex and Kent at 18.00 hrs:

Don't be too distraught if things don't kick off this afternoon, but if there is any chance at all, you need to be in the London/Herts/Essex/Kent area on the way home tonight!!!

Then a few very quiet days.......

[legritter]

iv read previouse posts today before i post and there appears to be some potential for many ,but with the focus on cen southern and eastern parts ,my wife asked me last night if she could leave the washing out all day today i said yes ,but we have to go out later so i am going to cover my rear and told her to bring it in just in case ,i thought you said it was going to be dry today [WHY THE SUDDEN CHANGE ]i wont go into domestics , so catch up with you all later

[BrickFielder]

Upper level lapse rate forecasts look poor.

Instability charts look pretty poor.

Forecast Skewt charts suggest limited cloud tops.

Yet different models suggest some possibility of thunderstorms. A possible key comes from the vorticity charts.

These suggest some revitalisation of the occluded front and perhaps some cooler air dragged down to increase upper level lapse rates.

Vertical velodity charts are not that impressive. Estofex does not go for it. Hirlam lightning wizard charts show limited cloud tops and GFS ones are not much better.

Despite all the negative aspects I still have a suspicion there is a chance of an isolated thunderstorm (i.e. some of the models have not modelled the vorticity change effects very well). Key watching today might be the EUMETSAT satellite pictures for developing vorticity. For me there are too many negative signals for my liking.

[Chris W]

Met Office have a yellow warning covering wales, most of the south and part of the west midlands for heavy rain and possible thunder.

Seems to have come out of nowhere - first I heard of any potential today was the BBC forecast last night.

Edit - the warning area just moved east, now verging into Lincolnshire of course!

Edited July 20, 2012 by Chris W