Jump to content

Welcome To The Netweather Forum!

Sign In or Register for full access to the community - including the regional forums.

Photo

Technical Teleconnective Papers

enso stratosphere noa ao pdo etc ssts feedbacks

  • Please log in to reply
88 replies to this topic

#1 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 July 2012 - 19:06

Around this time of year I often search out new papers to assist in winter forecasting. However, quite often I lose the links to these papers by the time winter arrives.

So, I think it makes sense to have a drop off zone for these type of papers that I and others come across. Please post in here any abstracts or PDF links that you may find of interest.

A brief description of the paper would be most welcome.

( No climate change papers please)
  • 1

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#2 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 July 2012 - 19:11

And to start off here is an abstract on a paper to be verified soon.

This suggests that Vortex splitting events in the stratosphere are more likely to give colder outbreaks over NA and Eurasia than displacement events.

A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the Earth's surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a "weak vortex event", anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on timescales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high Northern Latitudes, as well as a quadrapole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors. It is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not, although this may be associated with the scale of vertically propagating Rossby waves which cause the initial vortex perturbation. In this study we demonstrate that the subdivision of weak vortex events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly-monthly timescales. Using reanalysis data we find that vortex splitting events play a highly significant role on surface weather with positive temperature anomalies over eastern North-America of more than 1.5K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to -3K. Associated with this is an increase in tropospheric blocking over the Pacific basin and a decrease over the Atlantic/European sector. The corresponding signals are far weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they prove to be the cause of cold-air outbreaks over North America. Owing to the predictability and importance of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for medium-range weather forecasts, our findings suggest the need for such forecasting systems to correctly identify the type of stratospheric variability, otherwise surface responses cannot be accurately reproduced.


(Bolded by me)

http://www.nwra.com/.../abstract1.html

Edited by chionomaniac, 17 July 2012 - 19:12 .

  • 1

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#3 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 July 2012 - 19:17

This next paper suggests that SSW's are more likely in ENSO event years rather than ENSO neutral years. Interestingly, this is true of both El Nino events and La Nina events.

I have extracted interesting info below about El Nino years


. During an El Niño winter, it is well‐
established that (1) temperatures are colder than normal in
the tropical stratosphere and warmer than normal in the
polar stratosphere; (2) ozone concentrations are anomalously low in the tropics and anomalously high at the pole,
reflecting an enhanced Brewer‐Dobson circulation [Randel
et al., 2009; Cagnazzo et al., 2009]; and (3) the planetary
wave flux into the stratosphere is enhanced resulting in a
weaker‐than‐normal stratospheric polar vortex [van Loon
and Labitzke, 1987; García‐Herrera et al., 2006; Garfinkel
and Hartmann, 2008].

http://www.columbia....ni-GRL-2011.pdf


And the follow up paper suggests why El Nino and La nIna events may be matched

http://www.columbia....012-revised.pdf
  • 0

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#4 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 July 2012 - 19:21

This next paper suggests that there is a correlation between increased North Atlantic heat release and stratospheric warmings.

http://www.scienceda...10121081051.htm

Edited by chionomaniac, 17 July 2012 - 19:52 .

  • 0

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#5 BornFromTheVoid

BornFromTheVoid
  • Members
  • 6,306 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Cahir, Co. Tipperary

Posted 17 July 2012 - 19:51

A paper on the positioning of blocking highs and their relationship to the upward propagation of planetary waves.

http://www.atmos.rca...11JC-BHs-PW.pdf

Previous studies have suggested the importance of blocking high (BH)
development for the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW),
while there is a recent study that failed to identify their statistical
linkage. Through composite analysis applied to high-amplitude
anticyclonic anomaly events observed around every grid point over the
extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the present study reveals distinct
geographical de- pendence of BH influence on upward propagation of
planetary waves (PWs) into the stratosphere. Tropospheric BHs that
develop over the Euro-Atlantic sector tend to en- hance upward PW
propagation, leading to the warming in the polar stratosphere and, in
some occasions, to major SSW events. In contrast, the upward PW
propagation tends to be suppressed by BHs developing over the western
Pacific and the Far East, resulting in the polar stratospheric cooling.
This dependence is found to arise mainly from the sensi- tivity of the
interference between the climatological PWs and upward-propagating
Rossby wave packets emanating from BHs to their geographical locations.
This study also reveals that whether a BH over the eastern Pacific and
Alaska can enhance or re- duce the upward PW propagation is
case-dependent. It is suggested that BHs that induce the stratospheric
cooling can weaken statistical relationship between BHs and SSWs


A video here from a workshop on SSWs from Kyoto, Japan.

http://www.ustream.t...corded/20636442

I can edit out the video link if you want to keep this strictly papers though?
  • 2

"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 17.7C April 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 10.7C April 5th


#6 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 July 2012 - 19:54

I can edit out the video link if you want to keep this strictly papers though?


No all contributions like this are welcome thanks.

I haven't had a chance to go through all the Kyoto papers yet!
  • 0

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#7 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 18 July 2012 - 20:55

From Sparc newsletter Jan 2012
http://www.sparc-cli...ter_Jan2012.pdf

Extract 1:


Within the same theme, A. Scaife addressed challenges and progress in prediction for regional spatial scales on a
wide range of timescales. The importance
of prediction for monthly to decadal timescales in conjunction with understanding
the effects of climate changes is underlined
by the incidence of large impact events
(e.g., floods, droughts, cold periods) that
are associated with seasonal to decadal
scale variability that accompanies the
more slowly varying climate signal. Predictions for months to years must rely on
both accurate measures of the initial state
and its uncertainty as well as on accurate
estimates of changes in climate forcing
mechanisms (“boundary values” such as
changes in the radiatively active components of atmospheric composition). In recent years considerable progress has been
made in understanding key processes that
influence monthly and seasonal predictability. These include improved understanding and modelling of the coupling
between tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations such as the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) and the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the lagged
coupling between stratospheric sudden
warmings (SSWs) and tropospheric circulation anomalies, and predictability of
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
events and their effect on weather patterns
(rainfall) both in the tropics and the extratropics. There is now evidence that more
accurate initialisation improves longrange predictions, particularly in the tropics. However long range predictability
of extratropical weather events is generally poor. Some improvements have been
achieved in making skilful prediction of
the occurrence of high-impact weather
events such as the numbers of hurricanes
and the frequency of hot days. Further improvements in extended range forecasting
are expected to emerge from the results of
international activities such as the CMIP5
decadal hindcast activity



Extract 2:


B. Dong’s work was motivated by a
change in interannual NAO variability in
the late 1970s, which was characterised
by an eastward shift of the NAO centre
of action. His analysis showed a downstream extension of climate anomalies
associated with the NAO. Using Hadley
Centre model experiments, he showed
that both SST and CO2
changes independently force an eastward shift in interannual NAO variability, and found that
the effects of SST changes could be understood in terms of mean changes in the
troposphere while those due to CO2
could
not. The implication is that stratospheric
changes may play an important role in
the observed eastward shift in interannual NAO variability and related climate
anomalies.
  • 0

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#8 BornFromTheVoid

BornFromTheVoid
  • Members
  • 6,306 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Cahir, Co. Tipperary

Posted 19 July 2012 - 17:55

Have you subscribed to strat_list Chio?

I signed up for it about 2-3 years ago with the intention of improving my stratospheric knowledge, but having gotten so caught up in all the polar and sea ice stuff I just haven't been able to give it as much time as I'd like.
  • 0

"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 17.7C April 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 10.7C April 5th


#9 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 19 July 2012 - 21:38

Have you subscribed to strat_list Chio?

I signed up for it about 2-3 years ago with the intention of improving my stratospheric knowledge, but having gotten so caught up in all the polar and sea ice stuff I just haven't been able to give it as much time as I'd like.


I have now thanks!
  • 0

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#10 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 14 September 2012 - 15:41

Here's an interesting one.

http://www.ncbi.nlm....act&holding=npg
  • 0

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#11 lorenzo

lorenzo
  • Regional Forum Host
  • 3,586 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Livingston, West Lothian. 138m / 452 ft

Posted 14 September 2012 - 18:47

That is a good find.. Cat among the Pigeons then...

Here is the link to the Met Office's new toy GloSea4 http://iopscience.io...326/7/3/034031/

What do you make of the enhanced profiling from 50km to 80km Chiono? A small step or a stage for them to factor in things talked about readily on the SSW thread, Zonal wind reversal, EP Flux?
  • 0

Netweather Extra       Regional Discussion     Severe Weather     Stratosphere 2013/14        Technical Research         Winter 2013/14

 

My own weather Blog     http://scotlandwx.co.uk/   Updated with a ton of useful links

 

 


#12 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 14 September 2012 - 19:41

That is a good find.. Cat among the Pigeons then...

Here is the link to the Met Office's new toy GloSea4 http://iopscience.io...326/7/3/034031/

What do you make of the enhanced profiling from 50km to 80km Chiono? A small step or a stage for them to factor in things talked about readily on the SSW thread, Zonal wind reversal, EP Flux?

I think that it is a small but important step. Modelling the tropospheric impact of stratospheric changes is a welcome step forward and todays news regarding this is important. To hear Steve Wright on radio 2 talking about SSW's today was very surreal.
  • 4

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#13 lorenzo

lorenzo
  • Regional Forum Host
  • 3,586 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Livingston, West Lothian. 138m / 452 ft

Posted 16 September 2012 - 13:09

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multidecadal Ocean Variability

Going to add this one in here, cannot access the full paper sadly. Abstract is here.


http://www.sciencema...56/655.abstract

A good write up from NASA here.

http://www.nasa.gov/...g-atlantic.html
  • 1

Netweather Extra       Regional Discussion     Severe Weather     Stratosphere 2013/14        Technical Research         Winter 2013/14

 

My own weather Blog     http://scotlandwx.co.uk/   Updated with a ton of useful links

 

 


#14 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 16 September 2012 - 15:00

http://www.columbia....2-submitted.pdf

A little more about the new stratospheric computer modelling system, CMIP5.
  • 1

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#15 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 16 September 2012 - 15:13

This has been mentioned elsewhere in the forum, but this paper demonstrates that less Arctic ice may be influential in a change of the NH circulatory patterns and a more negative AO.

http://www.pnas.org/...910109.full.pdf
  • 2

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#16 lorenzo

lorenzo
  • Regional Forum Host
  • 3,586 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Livingston, West Lothian. 138m / 452 ft

Posted 17 September 2012 - 19:45

This may be a vintage paper but it's a goodie..

http://www.sciencema.../5542/581.short
  • 1

Netweather Extra       Regional Discussion     Severe Weather     Stratosphere 2013/14        Technical Research         Winter 2013/14

 

My own weather Blog     http://scotlandwx.co.uk/   Updated with a ton of useful links

 

 


#17 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 September 2012 - 19:52

This may be a vintage paper but it's a goodie..

http://www.sciencema.../5542/581.short


I am sad enough to have the links to the whole amount of a lot of these papers, l!

http://www.nwra.com/...kerton_2001.pdf


I have to say that this one is very comprehensive regarding stratospheric polar vortices:

http://www.columbia....Volume-2010.pdf
  • 1

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#18 lorenzo

lorenzo
  • Regional Forum Host
  • 3,586 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Livingston, West Lothian. 138m / 452 ft

Posted 17 September 2012 - 20:15

Waugh & Polvani got me onto EP Flux.. a good work out for the brain ..estimated time frame to decipher... 2018.. !

Thanks for the link to the original above :)
  • 0

Netweather Extra       Regional Discussion     Severe Weather     Stratosphere 2013/14        Technical Research         Winter 2013/14

 

My own weather Blog     http://scotlandwx.co.uk/   Updated with a ton of useful links

 

 


#19 chionomaniac

chionomaniac

    Strat Bluffer

  • Model Forum Host
  • 6,051 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

Posted 17 September 2012 - 20:20

Waugh & Polvani got me onto EP Flux.. a good work out for the brain ..estimated time frame to decipher... 2018.. !

Thanks for the link to the original above Posted Image


After last year with the EP flux being very unfavourable I think I have come on leaps and bounds in that respect!
  • 1

Not long to go before the new strat thread appears........ Winter must be coming. Its here! - http://forum.netweat...4/#entry2806873

 

Links to previous strat threads - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2445171

Burgess Hill.


#20 lorenzo

lorenzo
  • Regional Forum Host
  • 3,586 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Livingston, West Lothian. 138m / 452 ft

Posted 17 September 2012 - 20:28

Found last Winter archive of randomness...

Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04 The Life Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Attached File  Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04.pdf   2.51MB   274 downloads


El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings:A re-evaluation in light of the observational record

Attached File  butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf   272.14KB   265 downloads

Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events

Attached File  martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf   692.36KB   295 downloads
  • 1

Netweather Extra       Regional Discussion     Severe Weather     Stratosphere 2013/14        Technical Research         Winter 2013/14

 

My own weather Blog     http://scotlandwx.co.uk/   Updated with a ton of useful links

 

 






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: enso, stratosphere, noa ao pdo etc, ssts, feedbacks

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users