South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 28th 2012>

[tinybill]

morning all its so humid just looked at the radar nice looking storms on the Holland side then later to-day all eyes east for the next downpour don't think i like to be on one of the camp sites at British GP 2 night

Edited July 5, 2012 by tinybill

[Paul Sherman]

Exactly. I reckon it might all pass to the north anyway - being pessimistic.

As an aside, the tornado you saw in Benfleet... Was that a planned chase?

I've seen a funnel cloud in this country too. Not sure if it touched the ground and became a tornado, but it was within 100m of me when driving. There was easily visible rotation. I nearly crashed! And definitely not a planned chase.

Hi

It was not a planned chase as such, it happened at 920am on a Saturday morning in November when I was just about to drive to work along the A13 Going towards Stanford-Le-Hope. A storm initiated over the South Downs and moved North East, the tell tale signs were the structure and huge bears cage thunder to my west (If you have ever heard a Supercell's Bears Cage thunder it is quite unique) Wickford about this time was getting Golf Ball sized hail and a lovely low topped classic supercell was sat just North of the Thames Estuary. Tops were about 21k feet, the temp was 59f and the dewpoint was 54f, Mr Finnis looked into the reason why this storm formed and it had the perfect local scale ingredients, SE Surface winds and SW Upper winds etc. There was not even storms forecasted that day as well, it was quite a strong tornado T4 Or EF2 And I did the damage survey as well the next day.

I am not confident we will see much apart from heavy rain for the next 4-5 days tbh, the better showers always to the North West of our region, Sunday looks a rough day as well at the moment with the wrap around occlusion making for a miserable day.

Once again ooop North looks best over the next week, they need it anyway as they have not had much to write home about these last few years

[Steve C]

Hi

It was not a planned chase as such, it happened at 920am on a Saturday morning in November when I was just about to drive to work along the A13 Going towards Stanford-Le-Hope. A storm initiated over the South Downs and moved North East, the tell tale signs were the structure and huge bears cage thunder to my west (If you have ever heard a Supercell's Bears Cage thunder it is quite unique) Wickford about this time was getting Golf Ball sized hail and a lovely low topped classic supercell was sat just North of the Thames Estuary. Tops were about 21k feet, the temp was 59f and the dewpoint was 54f, Mr Finnis looked into the reason why this storm formed and it had the perfect local scale ingredients, SE Surface winds and SW Upper winds etc. There was not even storms forecasted that day as well, it was quite a strong tornado T4 Or EF2 And I did the damage survey as well the next day.

I am not confident we will see much apart from heavy rain for the next 4-5 days tbh, the better showers always to the North West of our region, Sunday looks a rough day as well at the moment with the wrap around occlusion making for a miserable day.

Once again ooop North looks best over the next week, they need it anyway as they have not had much to write home about these last few years

Jeez! Quite impressive then for this country. I've heard of the bear cage, but not in the context of thunder. More like a decidedly dodgy place to be, if a tornado was about.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That rain tonight is building down in southern France..Keep on eye on it because this is what we have no clue about where it will go...Looks a little more west to me than predicted 0.0

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Dont know what the NAE is playing at? Looking at the rain over southern France..It is pushing North very slightly north east due to the low sitting just of Cornwall..BUT the NAE wants that rain at this moment in time moving much much more North east which is not doing

[Coast]

I am not confident we will see much apart from heavy rain for the next 4-5 days tbh, the better showers always to the North West of our region, Sunday looks a rough day as well at the moment with the wrap around occlusion making for a miserable day.

With you on that one Paul and I'm tempted to say more in your part of the World than mine. Interesting thoughts from Brickfielder in the convective thread regarding Southern areas tomorrow and any potential. Again he is expressing caution as the models need to firm up a lot first - amazing so close to the timescale!!!

[tinybill]

With you on that one Paul and I'm tempted to say more in your part of the World than mine. Interesting thoughts from Brickfielder in the convective thread regarding Southern areas tomorrow and any potential. Again he is expressing caution as the models need to firm up a lot first - amazing so close to the timescale!!!

http://europa.buienradar.nl/gmap.aspx?soort=loop3uur&zoom=7&lat=50.4888&lon=4.4192

watching all that heavy rain near Paris looks like its got the u.k. name on it later

[Steve C]

Been watching a shower, that I first saw in the Thames Estuary, which then passed over the Colchester area and is now passing in a NNW direction over Bury St Edmunds. It seems to be gradually getting stronger.

What's the betting it'll deliver a few flashes and bangs over W Norfolk again, the only favoured part of our region, it seems?

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

looks like things could get interesting here in suffolk in a hour or so!!

[Coast]

It was quite odd to watch workers on the Industrial Estate here all going to lunch with their Berghaus and North Face jackets on this week - is it really July??

[Steve C]

It was quite odd to watch workers on the Industrial Estate here all going to lunch with their Berghaus and North Face jackets on this week - is it really July??

Definitely fits in with Monday and Tuesday this week. Yesterday was pretty decent though - sat outside in a t-shirt till late evening and today is quite warm so far. (searching for crumbs of comfort )

Edited July 5, 2012 by The Föhns

[Eskimo]

It was quite odd to watch workers on the Industrial Estate here all going to lunch with their Berghaus and North Face jackets on this week - is it really July??

Quite warm today though!

[Kent Snow]

A very pleasant day with the temperature nudging 21C. Well scattered cloud allowing long warm sunny spells.

[Will Padz]

23c here very warm in the sun..... Still hoping for some storms from France later....we have to get one one day.....

[Keraunic]

Forecasters keep talking about a chance of storms right until the end of the weekend if not beyond. If you've a 20% chance of storms per day, then in a five day period the chance of not having a storm becomes only 33%. That's my straw to clutch at.

Edit. Just picked this up from the Weatheronline site.

"An area of intense, thundery rain with the potential for flash flooding moves across East Anglia, The North Midlands, the north of England and Wales tonight and through Friday. Overall we keep the showery theme going across most parts of the county through the up coming week."

Lol. Good job someone else is clutching at straws. I'm expert at it. For example, do gulls know when a storm is imminent? Cos they're going ballistic here at the moment. (We're right near the Orwell and the docks here) Thanks for that Steve.

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

something telling me get your washing soon something not nice in the north sea heading your way !!!

[Steve C]

Probably someone trying to eat fish and chips. See if you can hear any swearing, below the din of the gulls.

Edited July 5, 2012 by The Föhns

[Steve C]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

something telling me get your washing soon something not nice in the north sea heading your way !!!

I wonder if that'll be further east though? Maybe northeast Suffolk and east Norfolk (if it holds it together)? Only time will tell.

[Eskimo]

Might be my imagination but that band of rain in France is quite a bit further west than I believe was forecast.

[tinybill]

I wonder if that'll be further east though? Maybe northeast Suffolk and east Norfolk (if it holds it together)? Only time will tell.

im watching it i got to go out for a couple of hours if i leave it out and it gets wet her indoors will kill me!!

Edited July 5, 2012 by tinybill

[Will Padz]

Just breached 24c here now.....lovely....

[Coast]

Met O update just in:

Yellow Warning of Rain05 Jul 2012, 00:05

Issued at - 05 Jul 2012, 12:13

Valid from - 05 Jul 2012, 00:05

Valid to - 05 Jul 2012, 23:55

Scattered heavy showers or thunderstorms are likely at times on Thursday, particularly during the afternoon and evening, with the potential for some torrential downpours in places. Southeastern areas of England are at less risk than areas further north, with any showers there tending to clear later.

The public should be aware that these showers, where they occur, may lead to surface water flooding.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

[Steve C]

24 hr precipitation totals till 18:00 tomorrow, from the NMM Model. Seemingly some places are going to get a helluva lot of rain!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Might be my imagination but that band of rain in France is quite a bit further west than I believe was forecast.

Look at my posts earlier spotted this a longggg time ago...Something to watch for !!!

[Coast]

This is now a worry from HiRLAM.......

A big worry.......