Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

[Nick F]

Only just seen today's Atd lightning strikes, but wow, been pretty lively through the central belt of Scotland today!

Still waiting for thunder since coming back from storm chasing in the US on the 12th .

[Love Snow]

Heavy Rain al day in Leeds but in the past Hour its been Torrential rain for over anHour just glad i live on a Hill.

[Supacell]

Its been wild today with constant rain, some of which very heavy and gusty winds. Driving home there were branches and debris everywhere. It really does not look like June outside.

I too am glad that i live on a hill, it must be get worrying for people near rivers and in areas prone to flooding

[NW Leeds Russ]

Its been wild today with constant rain, some of which very heavy and gusty winds. Driving home there were branches and debris everywhere. It really does not look like June outside.

I too am glad that i live on a hill, it must be get worrying for people near rivers and in areas prone to flooding

Yep again on a hill here but down in Leeds city centre I reckon the Aire will come over somewhere..?

Already flooding in lancs / cumbria and all to come off the hills there too. I hope everybody is safe......!

[Lewis]

Had continuous spells of sharp showers/rain during today, was watching the drovers (rovers) get beat on sky and they had a right downpour that's 1 mile away from me if that (the stadium) they had hail the lot, but here, drizzle.

Heavy pulses of rain will continue across many areas tonight, you can just see how much energy and moisture there is out there, as no matter how hard that precipitation trys to fizzle out this side of the pennies there's energy pumping right through and maintaining a permanent squall line here.

MAD!

Lewis

Edited June 22, 2012 by Humber

[Lewis]

Well today's set of models have been dire RE storm potential over the next 5 days or so, possibly longer.

Was sign of pressure starting to build from the South, and a possible plume from the near continent with widespread storms, and guess what, yep you guessed it, we end up with a Northerly! Lovely......

[mattyk1985]

The only day I dind't want storms is the day of Waddington airshow(30/06/12) and boom theres a very impressive looking chart for that day. Typical!

Guess its a long way out though.

Edited June 22, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Stuart]

will i see any storms here today I wonder

[Bobby]

There looks to be an increasing chance of explosive thundery breakdown mid next week as the low approaches

Supercells in France and some nasty homegrown storms and imports (MCS?) possible.

2000+ J/kg CAPE for England and -8 LI, impressive.

One to watch anyway.

[Evening thunder]

I'm guessing that with the Netweather charts chowing CAPE like this overnight where the LI is positive, they have recently been changed to show both surface based and ML CAPE, rather than just SB CAPE like they used to?

Then as posted above some quite tasty charts evolve through the day. I will probably wait a couple days to get a better idea of what may hopefully happen.

[Supacell]

Could this really happen? I am off work next week so this would be perfect. Its shown on a few runs now (intermittently) but of course Thursday is still a long way off in terms of modelling convective potential.

[sunny scunny]

Some heavy showers around here at the moment, but no T & L.

[Stuart]

just some heavy showers at the mo but no thunder

Edited June 23, 2012 by Stuart

[Bobby]

The GFS has upgraded the thundery potential for next week

Rarely do you see charts like that, some pretty intense storms possible.

Rainfall

[Chris.R]

Wow wow OMG OMG!! Look at all that CAPE and LI for next thursday. There'll be some big storms from that.

[A.J]

I'd bank the 12z GFS...it positively jumps out, slaps me and the face and shout 'spanish plume', with a thermal low over spain moving north into Biscay with an advancing atlantic low...This screams for an overnight MCS wednesday night into thursday morning for southern & central parts of the UK, home growns during thursday, then another possible MCS thursday night......As I said, I'd bank this run, but as it's all T100+, I wouldn't put my house on it verifying...Still, the potential is there for 24-48 hours of very warm and very thundery weather

[Supacell]

There is some ridiculous CAPE being forecasted by UK standards on the 12z GFS. I would be very surprised if it came off like that, but even if the CAPE was halved there would be the potential for some huge thunderstorms.

It is still a while off but I cannot help but to get a little excited with it having been on a few runs now. BBC forecast going with a warm up next week too.

Have i picked the perfect week to be off? I hope so

[Biggin]

The GFS has upgraded the thundery potential for next week

Where is that info found Barb

[A.J]

The GFS has upgraded the thundery potential for next week

Where is that info found Barb

You can find many charts right here on NW, & for the price of a couple of pints a month, a subscription to NW Extra will give you access to just about any chart you can imagine.....As an alternative, a plethora of charts including hi-res charts shown above can be found here ---------------> http://www.meteociel.fr/

[Arnie Pie]

From Thursdays clouds over Birmingham

all kinds of rotating spinning things in this one

[Chris.R]

And guess when we were last going mad over CAPE like this was? 27th and 28th of June last year! How strange, but then again, this week of the year has often shown good potential in the past. E.g. June 28th 2005, end of june last year ETC.

[Cloudwatcher]

Excuse me whilst I don't get excited by all this, I'm pretty confident we will miss out yet again but good luck to everyone down south where the action (may) be....

[viking_smb]

it's only sat, it will be downgraded

[Lewis]

12z is a cracker, if that comes off, you'll be seeing me setting up Poole as base camp, then following it all back up to Hull, getting a quick cuppa down me and watching it all again.

can only hope?

[Supacell]

And guess when we were last going mad over CAPE like this was? 27th and 28th of June last year! How strange, but then again, this week of the year has often shown good potential in the past. E.g. June 28th 2005, end of june last year ETC.

And that is why i chose this week to be off. June 28th 2005 is still up there as the best storm i have seen since i started chasing in 2004. Nothing has come close since (not even in 2006 which was a great year).

Was the 27th/28th last year the infamous "El Gordo" event, which failed to materialise on the day with best CAPE but then hammered the SE on the following day?

I feel an expensive week for petrol coming up for me, maybe throw a bed and breakfast in there aswell!

Or am i getting too excited now about something that is still 4-5 days away?

Edited June 23, 2012 by Supacell