Greenland - What Do We Know, What Is The Long Term Future And Is There Any Evidence Of A Melt Out?

[4wd]

It was easy to find with suitable search terms.

So because the consensus decided to ignore it and it has been mentioned by sceptics (?) it must be wrong, and can be dismissed without consideration of the points made.

This is how it goes though isn't it.

January last year isn't particularly 'old'.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It seems to be a journal with quite low standards, with a strong bias. I'd imagine that's why it was ignored.

But there has to be a conspiracy, right?

[4wd]

Hmm... I still have a problem with that approach, he isn't going to get that widely viewed because it doesn't fit the consensus, or it won't be viewed because something is wrong with it.

Which is it?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll try be as clear as I can.

If the work is good enough, get it published in a proper journal. Then someone might take it seriously. Trying instead for a sub-standard journal strongly suggests sub-standard work.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Who could have guessed it?

Both the editor and co-editor of the journal have no climatology qualifications and were both speakers at Heartland Institute's climate conferences!

[Interitus]

The author can be seen across the blogosphere linking to that article in a "I'm a published scientist, these are the facts, end of argument" kind of way.

"Journals" like this are just subverting the scientific process to lend credence to spurious claims fuelled by their particular agenda. It undermines and ridicules the principles of scientific enquiry and research methodology.

[Methuselah]

The author can be seen across the blogosphere linking to that article in a "I'm a published scientist, these are the facts, end of argument" kind of way.

"Journals" like this are just subverting the scientific process to lend credence to spurious claims fuelled by their particular agenda. It undermines and ridicules the principles of scientific enquiry and research methodology.

I think that that is their purpose; they are nothing more than 'professional' obfuscators...

[knocker]

A Melting Greenland Weighs Perils Against Potential

NARSAQ, Greenland — As icebergs in the Kayak Harbor pop and hiss while melting away, this remote Arctic town and its culture are also disappearing in a changing climate.

Narsaq’s largest employer, a shrimp factory, closed a few years ago after the crustaceans fled north to cooler water. Where once there were eight commercial fishing vessels, there is now one.

As a result, the population here, one of southern Greenland’s major towns, has been halved to 1,500 in just a decade. Suicides are up.

“Fishing is the heart of this town,†said Hans Kaspersen, 63, a fisherman. “Lots of people have lost their livelihoods.â€

But even as warming temperatures are upending traditional Greenlandic life, they are also offering up intriguing new opportunities for this state of 57,000 — perhaps nowhere more so than here in Narsaq.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/science/earth/melting-greenland-weighs-perils-against-potential.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[knocker]

ABSTRACT. Using RADARSAT synthetic aperture radar data, we have mapped the flow velocity over

much of the Greenland ice sheet for the winters of 2000/01 and 2005/06. These maps provide a detailed

view of the ice-sheet flow, including that of the hundreds of glaciers draining the interior. The focused

patterns of flow at the coast suggest a strong influence of bedrock topography. Differences between our

two maps confirm numerous early observations of accelerated outlet glacier flow as well as revealing

previously unrecognized changes. The overall pattern is one of speed-up accompanied by terminus

retreat, but there are also several instances of surge behavior and a few cases of glacier slowdown.

Comprehensive mappings such as these, at regular intervals, provide an important new observational

capability for understanding ice-sheet variability.

http://muenchow.cms.udel.edu/images/Joughin2010.pdf

[snawbaw]

Yep, sailors in the Arctic back then just went of in random direction, never really had a clue!

The change attributed to humans is done so through scientific investigations and is based on evidence and analysis. We have a pretty good hold on how natural cycles affect the ice. But I'm sure all your probables and maybes are much more likely....

If the ice begins to rebound, a lot of work will be done to figure out why. Modelling, in-situ measurements, statistical analysis, satellite analysis... ya know, all the sciencey malarkey!

There is loads of evidence for AGW, from the shifting of plant and animal species northward and into higher elevations, there's the temperature record, changes to the height of the tropopause, ocean warming, etc.

Your point of taking some comments from a blog? Because I'm sure you know well, that libraries could be filled with imbecilic nonsense spouted by deniers on a hourly basis.

It was predicted that warming would be more pronounced at the poles, which it is!

Numerous studies have been done into the solar link, even plenty of times by sceptics, trying to tie it with recent temperature changles and it just doesn't work. Despite declining low solar activity since the 60s, the oceans continue to warm.

[knocker]

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840–2007

ABSTRACT

Meteorological station records and regional climate model output are combined to develop a continuous

168-yr (1840–2007) spatial reconstruction of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean Greenland ice sheet nearsurface

air temperatures. Independent observations are used to assess and compensate for systematic errors

in the model output. Uncertainty is quantified using residual nonsystematic error. Spatial and temporal

temperature variability is investigated on seasonal and annual time scales. It is found that volcanic cooling

episodes are concentrated in winter and along the western ice sheet slope. Interdecadal warming trends

coincide with an absence of major volcanic eruptions. Year 2003 was the only year of 1840–2007 with a warm

anomaly that exceeds three standard deviations from the 1951–80 base period. The annual whole ice sheet

1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming. The recent warming was,

however, stronger along western Greenland in autumn and southern Greenland in winter. Spring trends

marked the 1920s warming onset, while autumn leads the 1994–2007 warming. In contrast to the 1920s

warming, the 1994–2007 warming has not surpassed the Northern Hemisphere anomaly. An additional

1.08–1.58C of annual mean warming would be needed for Greenland to be in phase with the Northern

Hemispheric pattern. Thus, it is expected that the ice sheet melt rates and mass deficit will continue to grow in

the early twenty-first century as Greenland’s climate catches up with the Northern Hemisphere warming

trend and the Arctic climate warms according to global climate model predictions.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1

[knocker]

Beautiful gyres in sea ice off E Greenland

Sea Ice Off Eastern Greenland

The MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Sea Ice off eastern Greenland on October 16, 2012.

Image Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

Edited October 21, 2012 by knocker

[jethro]

Beautiful gyres in sea ice off E Greenland

Sea Ice Off Eastern Greenland

The MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Sea Ice off eastern Greenland on October 16, 2012.

Image Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

Add these to your Christmas wish list, they're full of the most amazing, beautiful photographs.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/landscape-photography-arctic-regions-Books/s?ie=UTF8&keywords=Landscape%20photography%20-%20Arctic%20regions.&page=1&rh=n%3A266239%2Ck%3ALandscape%20photography%20-%20Arctic%20regions.%2Cp_lbr_books_authors_browse-bin%3APatrick%20Hook

http://www.amazon.com/Earthsong-Bernhard-Edmaier/dp/0714844519

[knocker]

I've been waiting for an update on this but it seems to be taking its time.

Top) Time series of the cumulated Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) in GT simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by the ECMWF (operational) reanalysis since 1 Jan 2010 (in green), 1 Jan 2011 (in orange) and 1 Jan 2012 (in red). The 1958-2011 mean simulated by MAR forced by ERA-40 (1958-1978) and by ERA-INTERIM (1979-2011) is also plotted in black. Finally, the absolute minimum cumulated SMB over 1958-2011 is plotted in blue. After Mid-July, the 2012 cumulated SMB is below the absolute minimum (2010)! Middle) Time series of the daily mean GrIS near-surface temperature (TAS) simulated by MAR. The absolute maximum temperature of each day is plotted in blue. Bellow) Time series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index from Climate Prediction Center.

http://climato.be/cm...imulated-by-mar

Edited October 23, 2012 by knocker

[knocker]

Expedition to Greenland in 2011. Rapid drainage of a lake into a Moulin.

[Gray-Wolf]

I have to wonder whether Peterman2012 was finally snapped off due to excessive meltwater flow from the draining of the lakes behind it and meltwater flow?

It calved prior to the full moon tides and the initial speed at which it flowed away from the front of the glacier made it look 'driven' by quite a powerful force?

After watching the scale of the glacial floods to the south of Peterman it had me wondering just as to the impact such 'flooding' would have had on the internal plumbing of the weakened glacier front?

Edited October 31, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

I would imagine the melt water would certainly be involved. As you know it speeds up the movement of the glacier. It also appears that there are horizontal Moulins in the centre of the glacier although it's not certain at the moment what effect this has on the ice shelf.

Another factor is the sea temp at around 400m at the Store Glacier is around 2.7C and melts the bottom of the ice shelf and produces an undercut that destablises the shelf which eventually leads to massive calving.

Given the huge warm teperature anomaly over Greenland over recent years and the increase in melt water I would have thought an increase ice shelf instability is inevitable with an associated increase in massive calving. Over time this must lead to further sea level rises.

This of course resonates on areas subject to storm surges, of which there are many. As I posted in another thread regarding storm barriers for New York.

Only three years ago a conference was held to discuss possiblity of New York being hit by a hurricane and swamped by a storm surge. A system of flood barriers was proposed to protect New York, much as the Thames Barrier defends London from a storm surge.

“We’re going to have to do something,†said the oceanographer Malcolm Bowman at Stony Brook University, New York. Because sea levels are rising particularly fast on the northeast coast of the US, the threat of a storm surge is increasing. New York’s emergency planners expressed interest in a flood barrier, but little more was done.

Edited October 31, 2012 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

We did see a big positive SST anom off East coast USA this summer and maybe that was tied in with the 'stuck H.P. that gave them their heatwave? It must also have allowed for a tad of thermal expansion in that region and also not hindered Sandy once the waters got mixed up in the swell and the warmer waters brought back to the surface? Folk are wondering why sandy was able to maintain status right up until near landfall and that extra warmth from the Gulf Stream and the anom may form part of the answer?

The Peterman crack had been around a while (7 years) but it still took the final break to free it? With the elevated temps that flooded over Greenland through June/July/Aug, and the drp in albedo we saw, must have lead to some enhanced melt rates both into the crack and through the internal drainage of the Glacier. Add in a glacial flood from a rapid drain of a lake and it might have been the kind of shove required?

[knocker]

Some recent findings tend to support this paper from last year.

Warming ocean layers will undermine polar ice sheets

IMAGE: This view of the seaward edge of Antarctica’s floating Ross Ice Shelf shows a region where the ice is cracking and may produce an iceberg. Click here for more information.

Warming of the ocean's subsurface layers will melt underwater portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets faster than previously thought, according to new University of Arizona-led research. Such melting would increase the sea level more than already projected.

The research, based on 19 state-of-the-art climate models, proposes a new mechanism by which global warming will accelerate the melting of the great ice sheets during this century and the next.

The subsurface ocean layers surrounding the polar ice sheets will warm substantially as global warming progresses, the scientists found. In addition to being exposed to warming air, underwater portions of the polar ice sheets and glaciers will be bathed in warming seawater.

The subsurface ocean along the Greenland coast could increase as much as 3.6 F (2 C) by 2100.

"To my knowledge, this study is the first to quantify and compare future ocean warming around the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets using an ensemble of models," said lead author Jianjun Yin, a UA assistant professor of geosciences.

Most previous research has focused on how increases in atmospheric temperatures would affect the ice sheets, he said.

"Ocean warming is very important compared to atmospheric warming because water has a much larger heat capacity than air," Yin said. "If you put an ice cube in a warm room, it will melt in several hours. But if you put an ice cube in a cup of warm water, it will disappear in just minutes."

Given a mid-level increase in greenhouse gases, the researchers found the ocean layer about 650 to 1,650 feet (200 to 500 meters) below the surface would warm, on average, about 1.8 F (1 C) by 2100.

http://www.eurekaler...a-wol062911.php

Edited November 1, 2012 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

If you want to see a proper crack on the Ross Ice shelf pop over to the Antarctic thread and have a look at mine!!!

[knocker]

If you want to see a proper crack on the Ross Ice shelf pop over to the Antarctic thread and have a look at mine!!!

Yes I saw your 'crack' GW. I'm undergoing the required treatment at the moment.

[jethro]

So, any ideas on if or when we can expect the Gulf Stream to be interrupted because of the extra melt water?

[laserguy]

So, any ideas on if or when we can expect the Gulf Stream to be interrupted because of the extra melt water?

Dunno but the sooner,the better - time is running out for me.

[knocker]

So, any ideas on if or when we can expect the Gulf Stream to be interrupted because of the extra melt water?

As your getting the easy questions out of the way first Jethro I was thinking along the lines of the 19th of June 2020. In a more serious mode there is obviously no definitive answer to this. I assume you are thinking of the partial or total shut down of the Global Thermohaline Conveyor as happened during the Younger Dryas. One of the theories why this happened is that of a sudden influx of fresh melt-water from the Laurentide ice sheet into the North Atlantic which could have stabalised the vertical stratification and reduced the rate of formation of North Atlantic deep cold water. This, in turn, could have shut down the North Atlantic conveyor circulation, the Gulf Stream, resulting in a cooling of the water of the surface waters of the North Atlantic and of temps over NW Europe.

The effect of changes in fresh water fluctuations on the thermohaline circulation is an example of positive feedback but apparently the circulation has different states and I suspect the answer to the question depends, amongst other things, the state it currently it is in (transitional?) and how much melt water occurs. The change of states can occur quite quickly.

So, I don't know the answer but I think it a possibility this century, but it's really above my pay grade.

[jethro]

The latest NOAA image posted in this thread would suggest it will happen in the next couple of weeks or so....I think perhaps the Sun is going to fall from the sky too and the Cat in the Hat is going to emerge as the world leader, romping home in the Presidential Election.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74146-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201213/page__st__840