Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Carl46Wrexham]

i won't be getting too excited about these thunderstorms for midweek as many times we have had tame breakdowns from the west and all we get is an annoying legacy of cloud from a front, no rain, no thunder, this heat will be a blink and miss it affair like others have said

tbh im sick to death of viewing the models now, every day all i see is that permanent mid atlantic ridge/Greenland high just sitting there

The summer equivalent of the winter destroying Eurotrash/Bartlett high. A slug that refuses to depart

[Anthonyb]

I expect a few disappointed storm fans on Thursday.

Models do show a poss thundery spell on Thursday but anything significant is unlikely - going by the latest ECM and GFS there isn't enough time for the humid air to stick around - blink and you will miss it.

Without the humid air there is not enough instability to produce real thunderstorms.

So many times in past summers have we seen a two day event of humid weather with Temps in the high twenties and expected thunderstorms - it never happens.

Maybe the odd heavier shower and rumble of thunder.

I'm just going to enjoy the warmer temps in London next week and anyone wishing for more rain be it thundery or not in my mind is just bizarre. This country has had so much rain that it needs a long term rest bite.

Wish for sun instead if you have any sence

[snowmackem]

I expect a few disappointed storm fans on Thursday.

Models do show a poss thundery spell on Thursday but anything significant is unlikely - going by the latest ECM and GFS there isn't enough time for the humid air to stick around - blink and you will miss it.

Without the humid air there is not enough instability to produce real thunderstorms.

So many times in past summers have we seen a two day event of humid weather with Temps in the high twenties and expected thunderstorms - it never happens.

Maybe the odd heavier shower and rumble of thunder.

I'm just going to enjoy the warmer temps in London next week and anyone wishing for more rain be it thundery or not in my mind is just bizarre. This country has had so much rain that it needs a long term rest bite.

Wish for sun instead if you have any sence

Please, the word is RESPITE.

Others also please note - on this forum there is nothing called F1, it is F.I. and stands for Fantasy Island ( aplace and time in the future whereby model spread is so great as to be totally unreliable) and there is also no such word as PERCIPITATION, it is precipitation !!

Sorry mods, not model related but it bugs the hell out of me.

OK, Naomi Campbell, there you go,

Karl

Edited June 23, 2012 by snowmackem

[bluearmy]

nothing of any real note on the nwp apart from the similarity between this week and last week in terms of overall pattern (despite what the models were showing a few days ago). chances that july may be a slight improvement on the last week of june, judging by the latest naefs. but not by much and its only one run.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
Quoted post has been removed.

[all weather]

I'm just going to enjoy the warmer temps in London next week and anyone wishing for more rain be it thundery or not in my mind is just bizarre

lol, Does that include the bosses at thames Water and all other water companies wanting more rain?

We are in drought don't you know..... I had my moan about this in the drought section in April I think and I (blowing my own trumpet) called a wet year, maybe I should work for the water board and i could have saved them milions in advertising this pathetic drought order.

Anyway bring on the storms and rain - I got £30 at 8/1 in this being the wettest year on record, some way to go though.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs & Ecm 00z operational runs show heat and humidity building in the south of the uk during wednesday and peaking on thursday before the heat is shunted away to the east during friday. There is a brief respite in the very unsettled weather during tomorrow and tuesday but still with some showers around, mainly in the east but with some sunny spells, then heavier showers by midweek but also very warm and humid and then hot and sultry on thursday in the south but warm elsewhere and with widespread heavy thundery rain, the storms spreading north and east across all parts of the uk, then by friday it will become cooler but remain very unsettled into next weekend with winds veering westerly to nw'ly as the low pushes away northeastwards. The following week also looks unsettled but the atlantic/azores high may turn the weather more settled in the south but the north probably remaining generally unsettled throughout but at least temps returning to average after the cooler phase.

[Polar Maritime]

Good to see you back posting Frosty039, non bias and informative as per usual

[Frosty.]

Good to see you back posting Frosty039, non bias and informative as per usual

Thanks Polar, it's good to be back

As for the models. worryingly it looks as though we may see more flooding problems especially next thursday and still no sign of any sustained hot settled weather as we go into July.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes any rain will just run off now as the ground is sodden, flash floods from the middlands south from mid-week are a real threat now.

Especially if we get the storms that's being modeled by the GFS on Thursday.

[Weather Boy]

Decent agreement on the pattern over quite a long period, I think.

We have a brief settled spell coming Mon-Tues, possibly Wednesday too: warming up in the south briefly before the breakdown round about Friday. We are then left in cool and unsettled north-westerlies over the weekend and into early the following week, with the best weather the further south-east you are, but no-one escaping showers or longer spells of rain. This is due to a persistent secondary low, with its parent over central Scandanavia. The only differences in the models are on the orientation and positioning of said low. Both agree that it is in no hurry.

Then, the only hope for sun-lovers is that both models (the UKMO doesn't go that far) want to build the Azores high (which we have according to the models, as opposed to now where it doesn't really exist) to the south at least. This has been hinted at for some while but I have yet to see any run that shows a full scale high taking hold to give us any long-term summer weather. Whilst this is a long-way ahead, I think that it's been in enough runs now that it is unlikely just to be completely dropped, although it seems very likely to be temporary, plus it could be down-graded (from not a very 'high grade' start!). An upgrade is possible, but such a thought seems wishcasting, seeing as there is little or no support for a long-term pattern change that I am aware of.

It's a straw to clutch, but it's a long way ahead. Frosty's last sentence probably sums it up, although I think it may be that a few days of settled quite warm weather at that point is more likely than what we currently have.

[Anthonyb]

Back to the models and it still looks like a much better week at least for the South next week.

I await the 12z now.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
Quoted post has been deleted.

[Summer Sun]

Although there are hints of HP trying to build in early July the areas which could do with some drier weather arn't shown to get it, flooding remains possible for the areas which have just had it now the ground is so wet after weeks and weeks of rain it simply can't take anymore

Edited June 24, 2012 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

A brief respite coming up for the next couple of days although storms may effect the UK on Thursday as the warmer weather gets swept away for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECM show the general trend of unsettled weather remaining although the south may be close enough to the high pressure to become mostly dry in deep FI.

Off topic to the rainfall question. I believe people were referring too heavy rain falling on baked dry soil therefore running off without being able to soak in. Since April though we haven't had any prolonged dry spells so the ground has remained wet so run off is only occurring when it becomes saturated.

[chionomaniac]

I am seeing the first signs that the recurring theme of the long wave upper trough that has been based over the UK may be about to reduce in significance as we move into July.

This is based on a diminishing MJO wave and relative AAM which is at a record low presently rebounding somewhat over the next week or so.

The result I suspect is that the long wave trough recedes to the north of Scotland taking the jet stream with it, allowing an Azores ridge to build into southern areas. A slow process, but one that we should keep an eye out for in the next week or so.

[jimbo36]

I expect a few disappointed storm fans on Thursday.

Models do show a poss thundery spell on Thursday but anything significant is unlikely - going by the latest ECM and GFS there isn't enough time for the humid air to stick around - blink and you will miss it.

Without the humid air there is not enough instability to produce real thunderstorms.

So many times in past summers have we seen a two day event of humid weather with Temps in the high twenties and expected thunderstorms - it never happens.

Maybe the odd heavier shower and rumble of thunder.

I'm just going to enjoy the warmer temps in London next week and anyone wishing for more rain be it thundery or not in my mind is just bizarre. This country has had so much rain that it needs a long term rest bite.

Wish for sun instead if you have any sence

EH? will be more than humid enough looking at the latest charts, high dew points, CAPE & LI. How much more unstable do you want it lol.

Whether it comes to fruition though, will have to wait nearer the time. Remember similar risk last year busted by the cap, only for it to kick off 24hrs later when less expected. Risk of ground level westerlies could also scupper the storms.

Sensible option is to want supercell storms

[Cloud 10]

ECM takes the MJO into phase 2 as we enter July,which looks to be a fairly average set-up for the UK

but would probably be welcomed by many!

phase 2>

The GFS on the other hand sticks in phase 1 which looks uncomfortably familiar,with troughing over us.

phase 1>

[Bobby]

Tomorrow looks to be the last settled day for many (apart from the E/SE perhaps) before it turns cloudy, damp and muggy as a warm front moves up from the SW with light rain, drizzle and hill fog.

The rain could become heavier during Tuesday and Wednesday, especially towards the W/NW.

Wednesday could also see thunderstorms developing - in E England especially - with a good amount of Cape/LI to play with

Then a potentially very thundery breakdown on Thursday with thunderstorms developing from the SW spreading and intensifying as they move NE, but a lot of uncertainty on this. The ECM does not make much of such a thundery event apart from N. England perhaps

Then much fresher and showery weather follows on for the remainder of the week with some longer spells of rain in places, especially to the N and W.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Barb-

[Anthonyb]

EH? will be more than humid enough looking at the latest charts, high dew points, CAPE & LI. How much more unstable do you want it lol.

Whether it comes to fruition though, will have to wait nearer the time. Remember similar risk last year busted by the cap, only for it to kick off 24hrs later when less expected. Risk of ground level westerlies could also scupper the storms.

Sensible option is to want supercell storms

I have seen higher dew points and CAPE before with more instability and no supercells developed, here in North London anyway.

So I will believe it when I see it.

From past experience 1 day of humid weather never gave me supercell activity.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is coming more in line with the beeb now for Thursday there going for 23c max GFS now down to 25c

Then Friday low makes his appearance again

July starts off from where June ended with showers or longer spells of rain

[Milhouse]

At least the azores high is situated this side of the Atlantic so rather well placed to have another go at settling things down. Meanwhile Saturday is yet again looking cool and showery but Sunday should see things turning drier from the south.

[Cheese Rice]

Next week has the potential to be better than expected. I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread temperatures in the low twenties from Monday (particularly Tuesday) onwards. Cloud does look widespread however I'd expect this to become patchy by afternoon allowing spells of warm sunshine on Monday/Tuesday/Thursday. Wednesday looks a washout for some.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Scorcher]

GFS is coming more in line with the beeb now for Thursday there going for 23c max GFS now down to 25c

Then Friday low makes his appearance again

July starts off from where June ended with showers or longer spells of rain

Those GFS temps actually look higher than I saw on previous runs, I think the BBC are undercooking the temperatures. 25C could be quite widespread and ECM seems to support this.

[Cheese Rice]

I'd wait for the NAE to come out which so far has warmer temperatures than the GFS. Tuesday also looks drier and potentially sunnier for Yorkshire/NE/Scotland, the rest of the UK looks cloudy, wet in the south west.

[Methuselah]

Well the beeb has upped its Thursday temp to 26. So perhaps the MetO is now coming into line with the GFS?

[Summer Sun]

Well the beeb has upped its Thursday temp to 26. So perhaps the MetO is now coming into line with the GFS?

So a 3c upgrade from this morning then sound's like there coming in line with GFS