Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[damianslaw]

Models continue to show no major change in the long-wave pattern for the foreseeable future, with a southerly tracking jet and very weak azores high, meaning the trough will remain preety much in situ i.e. destined to plague the country unfortunately.

Whilst we should see a slightly drier more settled spell into next week and much warmer in the SE, average temps further NW, it doesn't look like lasting, and once again another low pressure looks set to attack the country by the end of the working week - a synoptical pattern we have seen every week in June.

The omens for any change soon look slim, its not good hearing the BBC weather presenter starting off the forecast by these words - 'well theres no sign of the weather settling down in the long term'.

[Snowy Easterly]

forget southend i might go to south coast of greenland

this constant mid atlantic ridge/greenland high goes on and on

however it doesn't look too bad for us next week chance of a mini plume by the end of the week, but the atlantic will soon shove it out of the way like usual

Edited June 22, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Costa Del Fal]

If the GFS 18z is anything to go by then next week doesnt not look too shabby at all! Much less in the way of frontal rain with Low pressure more held out in the Atlantic. Any precip looks more from showers. Nothing hot but temperatures much closer to the season average looks possible. Not saying this will be the overall outcome and nor is it a pattern changing but on the whole it could turn out the best week of this month. Not that this is a hard task anyway!

Models certainly hinting at a very brief spell of warmer air with some convective interest but this is likely to be watered down further from its already weak state anyway. Nevertheless, the upcoming week does not look wet imo. Much closer to average. After the dross of the last 3 weeks, I will happily take that.

[WeatherGuru2012]

With the way summer has been shaping up, just thought I would get you all in the mood for winter LMAO!!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfs-0-4494.png

some exceptional cold charts showing for december, but we can hope haha.

[Snowy Easterly]

With the way summer has been shaping up, just thought I would get you all in the mood for winter LMAO!!!

http://modeles.meteo.../cfs-0-4494.png

some exceptional cold charts showing for december, but we can hope haha.

that is a stonker if it came a day earlier it would be the best white xmas ever

shame it won't happen though but its nice to see charts like that, fed up looking at poor model output atm, for this sorry excuse of a summer

Edited June 23, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Jason T]

Pretty much dire output all-round. I was hoping that GP,S forecast of an improved July will come to fruition. However maybe some expectations are exceeded beyond thought,Including ME. As a newbie "well" sort of i really thought there would a big pattern change by now. I know next week not to bad for the south/south east.To be honest this pattern has been running since the last week of March and like most,FI has a new phrase for me..Not going to pronounce it, Im sure you can work it out.Maybe our weather pattern is due to the poles switching 180/o. Fred stated ( I aint looking for summer yet). Like any pattern though..It can only last so long. I would like to ask any higher fortunate ones..(Can you see this pattern breaking). I know of 5 farmers around me who have stated..We need no more rain..But sunny dry days,...A farmer asking for dry days that is a record breaker.Yet all i can see in the out-put is dire. When i say dire ..I mean no summer....Why has our summers repeatedly since 2007 delivered RUBBISH. What will it take to break it completely.

JASON.T

[Polar Maritime]

GFS this morning shows no change in the output, with the cool and unsettled theme continuing throughout the run.

If Fl is anything to go by, July is going to start with a very cool Northerly.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS this morning shows no change in the output, with the cool and unsettled theme continuing throughout the run.

If Fl is anything to go by, July is going to start with a very cool Northerly.

Maybe a bit of snow in far north above 500m?

[Polar Maritime]

Maybe a bit of snow in far north above 500m?

Certainly a possibility of snow above 700m. There has been several days with snow falling and even a dusting that settled during June so far in the Highlands.

[Evening thunder]

The ECM does at least look warmer than much of June this morning, as does the GFS until that northerly out at t+276 and other models, with 850hpa temps tending to be above 5C rather than below, if still not particularly settled.

The ECM keeps us in a more SW'erly flow after the brief warmer snap next week, meaning more average temps than recently, and also flirts with another plume idea in FI but it is shown slightly too far east:

On a personal note it's uncanny how all the models on virtually every run want to change a warm/hot thundery set up for Holland into a cool NW'erly literally 6 hours before I arrive on the 3rd July. GFS does that, GEM and ECM look like they'd be about to do that at t+240. Thunderstorms really do hate me it seems.

Edit: That is some pretty notable 850hpa temps over France though on that FI chart, can't be too often you get 25C+ 850hpa temps in part of France.

Edited June 23, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Deluxe]

Certainly a possibility of snow above 700m. There has been several days with snow falling and even a dusting that settled during June so far in the Highlands.

Don't forget the mini-plume and above average temps before the start of July! Good agreement on above average temps and potential of thunderstorms for most of England. Something the coldies have decided to ignore

[nick sussex]

For those looking forward to Wimbledon it looks like a dry start to the Championships with at least Monday and Tuesday looking dry and a little warmer.

Still some uncertainty though with whether the low to the west will orientate favourably and remain far enough to the west to drive some much warmer conditions north out of Spain.

After that low pressure does look to move in again and then its whether the current negative NAO will become much more west based if this happens then this may at least allow a ridge to be forced ne towards the south but unfortunately its hard to see a UK wide warmer and drier spell after this mini drier blip at the start of the week.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure about "coldies"- it's more a case of many people writing off a week unless the models show high pressure there or thereabouts for most of the week. Next week will certainly be unsettled but a closer look reveals that many of us will be seeing a rather different kind of unsettled weather to the grey, cold, wet, autumnal stuff that has characterised most of June so far.

The grey wet weather will return to southern areas tomorrow but further north it will be brighter with showers, and there is potential for many western parts to have a largely dry day while north-east England may have some thunder. Monday and Tuesday look like being sunny and generally dry bar a few isolated showers in the north, and after a cool start to the week, Tuesday looks set to be the warmest day of the month so far, with maxima of 20-23C quite widespread. The GFS 06Z indicates a pretty major thundery breakdown on Wednesday/Thursday, particularly over East Anglia and the northern half of England with remarkably high convective available potential energy. The GFS is probably over-egging this, but UKMO and ECMWF also have a pretty favourable setup for a thundery breakdown. The phrase "two fine days and a thunderstorm" certainly comes to mind.

The weak high pressure to the east of the British Isles will probably be pushed out of the way by the next Atlantic low on Friday, although the ECMWF FI hints at the possibility of further southerly incursions. Whether the next low pressure system will be autumnal like the current one, or a more showery/thundery affair, is hard to pin down at this range.

[Polar Maritime]

For those looking forward to Wimbledon it looks like a dry start to the Championships with at least Monday and Tuesday looking dry and a little warmer.

Still some uncertainty though with whether the low to the west will orientate favourably and remain far enough to the west to drive some much warmer conditions north out of Spain.

After that low pressure does look to move in again and then its whether the current negative NAO will become much more west based if this happens then this may at least allow a ridge to be forced ne towards the south but unfortunately its hard to see a UK wide warmer and drier spell after this mini drier blip at the start of the week.

Good to see you back posting Nick.

As you say it really is looking like a mini drier blip, before we are back to the usual washout we have experienced so far during the first half of Summer.

[Summer Sun]

After what looks like a dry spell next week for a time July looks like starting erm wet again

Need I say more for the rest of GFS I think not

[Bobby]

NAEFS anomaly charts are poor for summer lovers again. +192 has troughing established to our SW meaning bands of rain and showers for many although the SE should see better weather this time. The N and W not so much so.

Pressure builds then briefly but signs that troughing strengthens again towards the end

[Bobby]

Of interest is a thundery plume breakdown in the middle of the weak, some very tasty charts for storm lovers

I'd like to be in France, supercells??

[nick sussex]

Good to see you back posting Nick.

As you say it really is looking like a mini drier blip, before we are back to the usual washout we have experienced so far during the first half of Summer.

Thanks, I normally surface at this time as Wimbledon approaches!

Regarding the outlook and following on from TWS post, there is some uncertainty as to whether we're going to see these lows further north which would at least allow a warmer type of showery regime, we are reliant though on the negative NAO relaxing slightly and becoming further west based.

The ECM output does suggest that but thats really been all over the place in FI, given the current NH pattern the best the UK can hope for is to get on the warmer side of low pressure and if this can stay far enough to the west then we could see this allow some ridging to edge north out of France and bring some warmer conditions up from the south, the best conditions in terms of warmth and something akin to summer between the showers looks more likely for eastern and se areas.

The problem that has plagued recent summers is this southerly tracking jet and the disappearing act of the Azores high which has been displaced much further to the sw, no doubt the Azores high will return in good time to frustrate winter snow lovers!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thanks, I normally surface at this time as Wimbledon approaches!

Regarding the outlook and following on from TWS post, there is some uncertainty as to whether we're going to see these lows further north which would at least allow a warmer type of showery regime, we are reliant though on the negative NAO relaxing slightly and becoming further west based.

The ECM output does suggest that but thats really been all over the place in FI, given the current NH pattern the best the UK can hope for is to get on the warmer side of low pressure and if this can stay far enough to the west then we could see this allow some ridging to edge north out of France and bring some warmer conditions up from the south, the best conditions in terms of warmth and something akin to summer between the showers looks more likely for eastern and se areas.

The problem that has plagued recent summers is this southerly tracking jet and the disappearing act of the Azores high which has been displaced much further to the sw, no doubt the Azores high will return in good time to frustrate winter snow lovers!

Welcome back Nick! thought there was snow on the way then, but yeah Wimb looks like starting fine, then roof needed for thurs

[Anthonyb]

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

well looking deep into fantasy word there rain on the charts to July 7th no sigh of any per-longed warm weather,

You mention deep Fantasy world ... Exactly!!! So I wouldn't read into it - just like I'm sure you wouldn't take it as gospel if it were showing a Spanish plume lasting over a week.

I'm optimistic that July will offer some good weather - look at the end of May warm spell. It came from nowhere.

The models were showing unsettled throughout and I remember posters quoting "right of summer" - "rain all the way"

Then if I recall around 4/5days before the warmth arrived the models had a complete switch around.

The south at least having over 7 days of warm/very warm weather.

I know it seems we are in this dreadful unsettled pattern and it seems we have a low pressure hit us every Friday - lol

But maybe just maybe things will switch like they did in May - this weather can't go on forever and I'm pretty sure that Northern block only has a few weeks left in its grip. Fingers crossed.

Edited June 23, 2012 by phil n.warks.
Removed unfriendly comments.

[nick sussex]

Welcome back Nick! thought there was snow on the way then, but yeah Wimb looks like starting fine, then roof needed for thurs

Thanks yes most people associate me with my winter postings but I do occasionally appear in the summer if theres something noteworthy or when i start obsessing over the conditions for Wimbledon!

It does at least look okay for the start of the tennis, there is quite alot of uncertainty though later in terms of the track and location of low pressure and how much influence the UK will see from any ridging over mainland Europe.

Edited June 23, 2012 by nick sussex

[Costa Del Fal]

Am i the only one actually quite pleased with the current charts for next week in this thread?!? Whilst the further outlook isnt great, many seem too depressed and locked in FI to notice this week which at least offers more average fare.

Whilst were not looking at a heatwave at all, some very pleasant temperatures especially for England and Wales this week into the low twenties looks quite probable now for at least a few days next week and then the risk of something thundery (A long way off in that sense yet) as a low approaches more slowly thus allowing a warmer feed from the South, perhaps sending temperatures towards 25c on Thursday though thats based on the GFS. Nevertheless, the ECM is also hinting at uppers nudging 15c for a time.

Not guaranteeing wall to wall sunshine either but the Met Office symbols seem to hint at some decent sunshine. MUCH more positive at least than the rest of June has had to offer so lets enjoy it as although its not hot, it could turn nice and warm and very pleasant and maybe a chance for a BBQ at long last!

Edited June 23, 2012 by Blizzards

[bluearmy]

I'm optimistic that July will offer some good weather - look at the end of May warm spell. It came from nowhere.

The models were showing unsettled throughout and I remember posters quoting "right of summer" - "rain all the way"

Then if I recall around 4/5days before the warmth arrived the models had a complete switch around.

The south at least having over 7 days of warm/very warm weather.

that just wasn't the case anthony. it may well be that some posters were writing off the whole of may but the more informed on here were telling a different story from as far away as two weeks. if you want to have a strong indication what week 2 has in store, don't bother with the op runs. look at an ecm ens graph or naefs anomolys. barb has shown us what naefs is showing and its a continuation of troughing from scandi across the uk and out into the atlantic to our sw. i do think the se of england is close enough to the euro heights to have a reasonable fortnight though with some wetter interludes.

[Frosty.]

Hi all,

Long time since I posted.

The models are indicating a significant warm up next week, mainly from midweek across southern britain until next weekend with low pressure to the southwest and pressure higher to the southeast/east allowing very warm and humid air from spain to pump northwards, unfortunately it looks as though the heat will only be brief before a thundery breakdown arrives and then it turns cooler and fresher with more changeable conditions, In FI it appears to be the northwest of the uk which will be most unsettled with the southeast tending to become less unsettled but the hot and dry weather seems to remain across mainland europe with the uk continuing to have a poor summer for a while yet.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like it will be mild by night and humid by day for a time later next week

23c at midnight for some, widely in the high teens

High teens during the early hours

There could be some very heavy rain and possibly more floods for the north west

Temperatures drop for Saturday but remain high at night

About time we saw some wamer air its well over due now