6 replies to this topic

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92E that has been developing for about a week now in the eastern half of the East Pacific basin has finally become tropical depression. Intensity is 30kts. 02E is expected to strengthen, but slowly at first. The majority of the convection currently resides west of the LLC due to shear. However, the shear is expected to ease somewhat over the coming days allowing 02E to at least gradually strengthen. NHC expect 02E to become a hurricane in the coming days, and most of the models have been keen on making this system a hurricane too.

02E is currently moving west-northwestwards, but unlike the majority of East Pacific TC's, this motion is not expected to last. Troughing coming in towards the west coast of the USA is expected to break down ridging to the north (which usually steers storms west-northwestwards) and send 02E northwards, then northeastwards. Timing of the turn is uncertain, but it looks like Mexico could have a landfalling hurricane later in the week, so 02E certainly needs watching.

[Somerset Squall]

02E has struggled through the day due to shear, and remains a 30kt tropical depression. 02E has been moving towards the northwest, but the northward turn is expected soon. Shear is showing signs of easing, evidenced by the more centralised convection this evening. Interesting comments from the NHC regarding the potential for rapid strengthening:

Quote

THE ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BEGIN SOON. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS
INCREASED TO 56 PERCENT FOR THE 25-KT THRESHOLD AND 40 PERCENT FOR
THE 30-KT THRESHOLD DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

Mexico need to be very wary of this system.

[Konstantinos]

This is Tropical Storm Bud

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, 02E is now Tropical Storm Bud, with intensity rising to 35kts. Shear is still affecting Bud, leaving the majority of the convection west of the LLC. Shear should ease later today, and over waters of 30C, Bud should strengthen quickly into a hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

Worthy of note also is that this is the earliest on record for a 2nd named storm in the East Pacific.

Edited by Somerset Squall, Yesterday, 13:36.

[Somerset Squall]

Bud is still a 35kt tropical storm this evening. Bud continues to head northwestwards but a turn to the north is expected soon as the ridge to the north weakens. The track forecast later on is now becoming increasingly uncertain. Models are now showing Bud stalling near the coast of Mexico and then heading back westwards in 5 days time as the ridge reasserts itself. The timing of this potential turn is uncertain. However, it is still likely Bud will get close enough to the coast to provide torrentail rains and high winds.

[Somerset Squall]

Bud has intensified to 55kts today as shear as eased. Convection is much more centralised and the storm is attempting to build an eyewall, indicating that Bud is not far off becoming a hurricane.

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