Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Costa Del Fal]

Not a chance.

Cooler than this week, that's for sure.

I was referring to the ECM which pumps up upper air of between 12-15c whereas it's more nearer 8-10c this week. The other models wouldn't get 30c IMO but remain warm or very warm.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Blizzards

[Mapantz]

I was referring to the ECM which pumps up upper air of between 12-15c whereas it's more nearer 8-10c this week. The other models wouldn't get 30c IMO but remain warm or very warm.

T-850's do indeed increase on the ECM by next weekend, but that time frame for me is beyond reliable even with anti-cyclonic conditions around. And like a few have mentioned, the models turned on a sixpence very quickly.

I do however think that the downpour risk increases nicely next week, maybe a few surprises regarding it. :-)

Edited May 24, 2012 by Mapantz

[Robbie Garrett]

ECM really cranks up the very warm, even hot conditions again next week. UKMO looks like going a very similar way also. GFS 06z also showing a much drier outlook however it is a bit different and keeps the core of the high just a little too far West fro the best of the warmth.

Still, for sunshine and warmth, some very encouraging charts today. The Met Office keep on upgrading the temperatures. This weekend will now reach 25/26c here which is as good as its been all week, just a slightly stronger breeze which will gradually ease. If we can get the GFS on board like the ECM/UKMO then we could be seeing temperatures nudging past 30c maybe next week???

Very Impressive CFS on Meteociel too suggesting more high pressure until at least 15th June!!! I know it will change but ive closely followed the CFS for trends and high pressure in the first half of June at least is a regular feature. Winds mostly from the South or South East too promoting hot conditions.

BOM also looking good. What almost all models are agreeing on is the Atlantic Lows staying well out to the West. Many sunny days possible with a few thundery showers perhaps.

I was going to post about exactly this, it does look as if the low's out in the Atlantic may actually aid those temperatures from the south/east. If CFS is to be believed, your looking at in a medium term temperatures of low-mid 30s' end of next week, which is highly plausible if this continues.

I could be wrong but suspect June may be quite a thundery month, but with lots of warmth. I was looking at July's progged temperatures, and CFS was giving this week at 17-18*C - add another 10*C on that for maximum and we have 26-28*C....... interestingly July is showing 22*C - 24*C so good chance of mid to high 30's

But I'd like to say added caution on this, as the CFS has been flirting in regards to the expected temperatures for Summer... but not massively.

[Anthonyb]

T-850's do indeed increase on the ECM by next weekend, but that time frame for me is beyond reliable even with anti-cyclonic conditions around. And like a few have mentioned, the models turned on a sixpence very quickly.

I do however think that the downpour risk increases nicely next week, maybe a few surprises regarding it. :-)

-----------------------------

Hi,

ECM does show it hotter than this week, the timeframe is not that beyond tbh.

A lot of cold/unsettled lovers would be on here telling us to get our jumpers out if it were to be projecting a cool/cold spell. They certainly did 10 days ago and look what happened.

50/50 chance on having another warm/hot spell. All to play for, therefore I would never go in at a 'no chance' situation.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Anthonyb

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, strong support for an evolution into the "Atlantic trough/Euro high" setup, which some of you may have seen me making favourable references to (from a heat/sunshine point of view) in the Summer 2012 thread. In high summer (July/August) a jet stream tracking SW-NE at our end of the Atlantic is generally required for it to arise, but in May/June, when the jet tends to be weaker, it is more likely to arise from a blocked pattern with low pressure stuck out to the west and high pressure over central and western Europe.

The ECMWF was showing the Atlantic crashing through earlier but the latest two runs have suggested that it may have been over-progressive, and it is now showing the trough stalling in the mid-Atlantic, and the ensembles show broad support for this. The setup shown by GFS/UKMO/ECM for early to mid next week would probably bring warmer weather with some sunshine and increasing probability of thundery showers due to the slack nature of the high pressure.

Into FI the GFS sets up the Atlantic trough so far west that we end up with high pressure to the N and NW and dry sunny weather in the west, but potentially cool and cloudy in the east with north-easterly winds, contrasting with the ECMWF operational run's scenario of heat and thundery outbreaks. Thus beyond early to mid next week there remain a range of possibilities.

[Summer Sun]

Not a chance.

Cooler than this week, that's for sure.

You can never say never, we don't know what next week will bring yet, 30c could be more than possible in London if we could get the right set-up

[johnholmes]

Thus beyond early to mid next week there remain a range of possibilities.

there does indeed; with the 500mb charts being far from helpful; just one example the ECMWF and GFS outputs this morning have changed places from their chart for yesterday. NOAA is much similar last evening to its predictions over the last 2-3 days.

I would think that high contours somewhere NW/WNW of the UK with a trough SW/WSW of the country, both at 500mb and on the surface are probably the form horses for turning into June. But thanks to the variability of two of them I am not yet convinced of this pattern being the one for the 7-15 day time period.

[Mapantz]

You can never say never, we don't know what next week will bring yet, 30c could be more than possible in London if we could get the right set-up

We could get 45°C in London if we could get the right setup. lol

But I just don't see it happening next week. Warmth? You could say that slightly above average temps is warm compared to what we've seen prior to this weeks weather. But i just don't see the models pushing us beyond 30°C

Edited May 24, 2012 by Mapantz

[Summer Sun]

Another high pressure dominated run from GFS tonight, lasting well into June

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Snowy Easterly]

Thats FI gavin, how about posting the chart for mid, next week when it shows some cooler north easterlies over us

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-156.png?12

http://cdn.nwstatic....1/ukmaxtemp.png

Albeit next thursday is still FI so subject to change, but at least i admit this

Edited May 24, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 12z

A new area of HP gets close by as we get into next week

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

Edited May 24, 2012 by Gavin D

[camiscool]

is that good gavin the ukmo?

[Deluxe]

We could get 45°C in London if we could get the right setup. lol

But I just don't see it happening next week. Warmth? You could say that slightly above average temps is warm compared to what we've seen prior to this weeks weather. But i just don't see the models pushing us beyond 30°C

Strange post if you ask me!

[Summer Sun]

is that good gavin the ukmo?

All depends on people weather preference

[Alex]

So the UKMO sticks to its guns and seems to follow the ECM evolution from this morning with a reinforcement to our anticyclone from the south, the GFS seems to stick to it's guns and wants a breakaway low to move in between the two ridges.

ECM tonight will be interesting!

[Methuselah]

I've a feeling that this general type of weather might persist until the European Monsoon arrives. If it does, of course???

[Essan]

So the UKMO sticks to its guns and seems to follow the ECM evolution from this morning with a reinforcement to our anticyclone from the south, the GFS seems to stick to it's guns and wants a breakaway low to move in between the two ridges.

Nonetheless it quickly brings HP back over us for the BH - the risk of a washout rapidly diminishing

[Mapantz]

Strange post if you ask me!

What's so strange about it?

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish:

Please stay on topic in here all - the thread is for discussing the model output, nothing more, nothing less...

[Robbie Garrett]

We could get 45°C in London if we could get the right setup. lol

But I just don't see it happening next week. Warmth? You could say that slightly above average temps is warm compared to what we've seen prior to this weeks weather. But i just don't see the models pushing us beyond 30°C

I think water temperatures would preclude that from happening surely?? Unless we had 25-30*C 850hpa even then it would be a struggle to get that at this latitude.

GFS at the end showing what could happen mid month, another cold plunge on it's way, with a ridge out west.....

Edited May 24, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Deluxe]

What's so strange about it?

That you're so adamant we won't see 30C anytime soon. I think 30C is up for grabs next weekend

[Glacier Point]

.. another fine example of the often randomness of the operational GFS. Bin.

meantime, GFS ensemble means..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

Closed 500mb low locked in the Atlantic, and the draw of warm air from the south is unavoidable..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyEurope.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyEurope.gif

This is very conistent with low angular momentum (globally) and an upper atmosphere which is keeping tropical forcing in a phase 8 type state, not to mention cold surface waters in the Northern Pacific and a strongly positive anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific (Nino regions 1 + 2 are the warmest for several years).

[Alex]

.. another fine example of the often randomness of the operational GFS. Bin.

meantime, GFS ensemble means..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

Closed 500mb low locked in the Atlantic, and the draw of warm air from the south is unavoidable..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyEurope.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyEurope.gif

This is very conistent with low angular momentum (globally) and an upper atmosphere which is keeping tropical forcing in a phase 8 type state, not to mention cold surface waters in the Northern Pacific and a strongly positive anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific (Nino regions 1 + 2 are the warmest for several years).

Do you get the feeling that we could be locked in this pattern for a while - Atlantic trough, euro high? MJO is progged to stay close to phase 8 and angular momentum is rather steady but low.

[PubliusEnigma]

If this chart came off and pressure distribution remained constant.. I would anticipate a +33oC or even +34oC somewhere to the

west of London, Northolt or Heathrow !!

[Glacier Point]

@Alex Yes - there are a lot of factors from the top of the atmosphere down all keeping things the way they are now, for a sustained period.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Glacier Point