Solar Maximum/minimum And Winter/summer Weather

[Uncle_Barty]

From

I thought I'd copy the post I made on the subject in response to a question from John Holmes in the Tech Model discussion thread, for further discussion here (if any!)

an interesting post from you Jim-could you give us some more examples of low and high solar values and what the summers were, unless its a huge amount of work.

thanks if its possible

OK John.

I'll put this here, but will also repost in a new thread in Historical sub forum for any further discussion rather then clog up this one.

I expect Kevin Bradshaw could probably make a much better analysis than I, but here goes.

This is a bit of a 'sketch' rather then scientific analysis, so feel free to pull it to bits as you wish.

My main point is that I don't think one can point at solar activity as a major (perhaps not even a minor) factor in weather patterns affecting the weather here in the UK, though I'll happily accept that long term changes such as the Maunder Minimum may well do.

Looking at the extreme ends of the solar cycles over the past 35 years, i.e.the periods around solar maxima and minima, and the general feel from my perception of the winter and summer seasons. My location is on the south coast.

Solar minimum 1975-77

Winter 1974/5 mild

Summer 75 cold start but a good one in the end.

Winter 75/6 average to mild down here at least

Summer 76 'nuff sed!

Winter 76/7 average, think we might have had one snowy period here.

(transition from solar min to much higher activity - rise usually much quicker than the fall)

Solar maximum 1978-82

Summer 78 - poor even down here.

Winter 78/9 we know all about that one!

summer 79 (after some cold weather in May) and winter 79/80 both fairly average

summer 80 was a stinker

Winter 80/81 was average with no snow here

summer 81 poor first half, better second.

Winter 1981/2 legendary Dec/first half of Jan, the rest average

Summer 82 average though June was wet in many parts

Solar Minimum late 84 >> early 87

Winter 1984/5 was relatively cold

Summer 85 was crap in the main

Winter 85/6 average apart from a very cold February

Summer 86 rather below average overall

Winter 86/7 probably average bar THAT spell in January

(then a rapid rise in solar activity )

Solar maximum mid-88 to 1992

Summer 1988 - stinker with a particularly horrid July

winter 88/9 - very mild and Bartlett dominated

summer 89 was predominently fine and warm

winter 89/90 average at least with no snow down here.

summer 90 - June not great but the rest was pretty good.

winter 90/1 average until that cold Feb

summer 91 poor first half much better 2nd

winter 91/2 Average, don't remember any snow down here.

Summer 92 distintly average

Solar minimum 95-7

Winter 94/5 average at least, perhaps on the mild side

Summer 95 iffy June but warm and sunny after that.

winter 95/6 mixed with some distinctly cold spells.

Summer 96 pretty average

winter 96/7 average with notable cold spell at turn of year and another cold spell in Feb

summer 97 awful June, rest was mixed.

The solar maximum of 1999-2003

The winters were all fairly mixed. Summers of 99 and 03 were decent, the others distinctly average.

Can anyone spot a pattern??? I can't!

[Polar Maritime]

Is this just UK related ? Or is it possible to see if solar activity effects the earths climate as a whole... just a thought.

Space weather may also in the long term affect the Earth's climate. Solar ultra-violet, visible and heat radiation are the primary factors for the Earth's climate, including global average temperatures, and these energy sources appear to be quite constant. However, many scientists have observed corrrelations between the solar magnetic activity, which is reflected in the sunspot frequency, and climate parameters at the Earth. Sunspots has been recorded through several hundreds of years which makes it possible to compare their variable frequency to climate variations to the extent that reliable climatological records exists. One of the most striking comparisons was published by E. Friis-Christensen og K. Lassen, DMI, in "Science" in 1991. In their work they compared the average temperatureat the northern hemisphere with the average solar activity defined through the interval between successive sunspot maxima. The more active the sun - the shorter the interval: the solar cycle runs more intense.

The varying length of the 11-year cycle has been found to be strongly correlated with longterm variations of the northern hemisphere land surface air temperature since the beginning of systematic temperature variations from a global network, i. e. during the past 130 years. Although direct temperature observations before this interval are scarce, it has been possible to extend the correlation back to the 16th century due to the existence of a series of proxy temperature data published by Groveman and Landsberg in 1979. Reliable sunspot data do not exist before 1750, but we have been able to derive epochs of minimum sunspot activity from auroral observations back to 1500 and combine them with the direct observations to a homogeneous series.

Comparison of the extended solar activity record with the temperature series confirms the high correlation between solar activity and northern hemisphere land surface air temperature and shows that the relationship has existed through the whole 500-year interval for which reliable data exist.

A corresponding influence of solar activity has been demonstrated in other climatic parameters. Thus, both the date of arrival of spring in the Yangtze River Valley as deduced from phenological data and the extent of the sea-ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic sea have been shown to be correlated with the length of the sunspot cycle during the last 450 years.

Conclusion

70-90 years oscillations in global mean temperature are correlated with corresponding oscillations in solar activity. Whereas the solar influence is obvious in the data from the last four centuries, signatures of human activity are not yet distinguishable in the observations. http://www.tmgnow.co...ar/lassen1.html

............................................................................................................................................................................

1. “Solar Constant†Variations in the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle and Climatic Effects

Atmospheric circulation, the cause of weather, is driven by the sun’s energy. Climate is the integral of weather over periods of more than a year. This integral also depends on the flux of solar energy. The same applies to variations in the energy flux caused by the sun’s varying activity. Satellite data show that the “solar constant†S is variable. The solar irradiance decreased from the sunspot maximum 1979 to the minimum 1986, increased again on the way to the next maximum in the 11-year sunspot cycle, and decreased anew in the descending phase. This came as a surprise as it is plausible that the dark sunspots with their strong magnetic fields impede the free flux of energy from the sun’s interior to the outside. Yet P. V. Foukal and J. Lean [22] have shown that bright faculae in the vicinity of sunspots increase even more than sunspots when the activity grows stronger, so that an irradiance surplus is established.

http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm

Edited May 3, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Uncle_Barty]

Yes, just UK related.

I guess a good statistician might be able to look and see if there is any relationship between smoothed or monthly sunspot numbers and CET stats.

[Polar Maritime]

Well the ultra violate rays effect the cloud base level. As you say it's all down to numbers and stat's, but the mechanism is there...

Edited May 3, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

Interesting points here but a bit beyond my simple forecasters' mind, but thanks for the info!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes, just UK related.

I guess a good statistician might be able to look and see if there is any relationship between smoothed or monthly sunspot numbers and CET stats.

You will not find any evidence with CET stats for the uk, it's a neadle in a hay stack, And a ripple in the ocean.

But look at it as earth as a whole, and the evidence is there. There are so many diffrent variations in the earths atmosphere, stratosphere, and the earths own climate to take into consideration that you have to look at the bigger picture.

I suggest changing the topic title, or this may get locked due to lack of information.

Edited May 3, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[jethro]

Thought some of you may find this new paper interesting, it was published a couple of months ago in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. The study finds a link between temperature in the Northern Atlantic regions and the length of the Solar cycle; the correlation is not as instant as you would expect, there is a considerable time lag before the impact is felt.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

[Polar Maritime]

Thought some of you may find this new paper interesting, it was published a couple of months ago in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. The study finds a link between temperature in the Northern Atlantic regions and the length of the Solar cycle; the correlation is not as instant as you would expect, there is a considerable time lag before the impact is felt.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

Thanks for posting jethro, ive had a quik flick through it very interesting finds re- time lag.

Will have a better in-depth read tomorrow when my brain is more active, as it's starting to fade now...

[jethro]

Thanks for posting jethro, ive had a quik flick through it very interesting finds re- time lag.

Will have a better in-depth read tomorrow when my brain is more active, as it's starting to fade now...

Apologies, it's definitely a make a cuppa and slowly digest kind of read - not really bedtime reading.....I guess nodding off wouldn't be a problem though.

[Polar Maritime]

Apologies, it's definitely a make a cuppa and slowly digest kind of read - not really bedtime reading.....I guess nodding off wouldn't be a problem though.

More interesting than counting sheep.....

[johnholmes]

Thought some of you may find this new paper interesting, it was published a couple of months ago in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. The study finds a link between temperature in the Northern Atlantic regions and the length of the Solar cycle; the correlation is not as instant as you would expect, there is a considerable time lag before the impact is felt.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

I will find time during the weekend to try and read it, who knows I might even understand some of it?

thanks for the link J

[Polar Maritime]

Climatic effects of a solar minimum

A grand solar minimum and the climate response recorded for the first time in the same climate archive highlights the need for a more differentiated approach to solar radiation

An abrupt cooling in Europe together with an increase in humidity and particularly in windiness coincided with a sustained reduction in solar activity 2800 years ago. Scientists from the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in collaboration with Swedish and Dutch colleagues provide evidence for a direct solar-climate linkage on centennial timescales. Using the most modern methodological approach, they analysed sediments from Lake Meerfelder Maar, a maar lake in the Eifel/Germany, to determine annual variations in climate proxies and solar activity.

The study published online this week in Nature Geosience (06/05/2012) reports the climatic change that occurred at the beginning of the pre-Roman Iron Age and demonstrates that especially the so-called Grand Minima of solar activity can affect climate conditions in western Europe through changes in regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Around 2800 years ago, one of these Grand Solar Minima, the Homeric Minimum, caused a distinct climatic change in less than a decade in Western Europe.

The exceptional seasonally laminated sediments from the studied maar lake allow a precise dating even of short-term climate changes. The results show for a 200 year long period strongly increased springtime winds during a period of cool and wet climate in Europe. In combination with model studies they suggest a mechanism that can explain the relation between a weak sun and climate change. "The change and strengthening of the tropospheric wind systems likely is related to stratospheric processes which in turn are affected by the ultraviolet radiation" explains Achim Brauer (GFZ), the initiator of the study. "This complex chain of processes thus acts as a positive feedback mechanism that could explain why assumingly too small variations in solar activity have caused regional climate changes."

Albeit those findings cannot be directly transferred to future projections because the current climate is additionally affected by anthropogenic forcing, they provide clear evidence for still poorly understood aspects of the climate system, emphasizes Achim Brauer. In particular, further investigations are required with a focus on the climatic consequences of changes in different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. Only when the mechanisms of solar-climate links are better understood a reliable estimate of the potential effects of the next Grand solar minimum in a world of anthropogenic climate change will be possible. In this respect, well-dated annually laminated lake sediments are also in future of crucial importance for these studies.

Therefore, scientists from the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) and other institutions search for such archives around the world in order to to obtain a more accurate approach to the solar-climate relationship and the different regional responses.

http://www.gfz-potsd...ne?template=gfz Thanks to WeatherShip for finding this paper.

Edited May 7, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

deleted.

Edited May 20, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[sebastiaan1973]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/23/agu-link-found-between-cold-european-winters-and-solar-activity/