67 replies to this topic

[Thundery wintry showers]

Milhouse, on 20 May 2012 - 11:23 , said:

To be fair, for once we have seen a general improvement in the prospects for next week as opposed to the constant downgrades that characterised last Summer. If i recall right, the models were not looking all that good for the coming week 4/5 days ago with a coolish northerly rather than the warmer easterly that we look to be getting. The peak ensemble mean for next week has risen by about 5c during that time so its a warm spell that has very much improved over time.

Yeah, I remember that a few days ago the models were showing what looked to me like a cool cloudy north-easterly type (though possibly sunny and warm in the north-west). On subsequent runs the models sent a ridge of high pressure southwards across the country which is producing the much sunnier and warmer prospects for midweek.

Still looks like we'll pick up a cooler and possibly cloudier east to north-easterly towards next weekend, but not until after a large majority of us have seen warm sunshine around Tuesday-Thursday.

[ledders69]

Another thing to consider is solar activity for this summer, the more we have, the better chance IMHO we have for the jet stream mantaining a northerly position. We also have to keep an eye on the MJO as that is a pivotal indicator of how this summer performs along with the GWO too. Think at the moment weather online and exacta weather with weather action have not much faith in prolonged hot spells this summer. Think as well with a slight Nino temperatures should hold nicely. An area of concern I would say is the angular momentum as currently pretty low probably having an upward trend a bit.

[johnholmes]

Have I misread the title of this thread or stumbled into something about what GFS is showing at its furthest extreme which is barely into summer!!
puzzled

[ElectricSnowStorm]

My short forecast in the seasonal thread.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 21 May 2012 - 04:19 .

[Gavin D]

Weather Services International: Warmth Focused in Northern Europe This Summer

Weather Authority Expects Best Chance for Significant Heat in First Half of Summer with Increasing Likelihood of Broad-Based, Below-Normal Temps as Summer Progresses

Andover, MA, May 21, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (June-August) to average higher than normal across the Nordic region, UK, and the northern mainland, with below-normal temperatures confined to the Southeast.

“The last few summers have all been characterized by very warm, dry weather across much of eastern and southern Europe with relatively cool and wet conditions across the UK and western parts of the mainland and Nordic region,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “This pattern has been driven by extreme levels of North Atlantic blocking, which we do not expect to occur again this summer. This year, reduced levels of blocking should result in a distinctly different summer with high pressure driving warmer, drier and less windy conditions across northern and western Europe. Conversely, lower pressures will be associated with cooler, wetter and windier conditions across southern and eastern Europe. Finally, the emerging El Nino event suggests increased chances of more widespread, below-normal temperatures by late summer with the best chances for significant heat during the first half of summer.”

In June, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except Mediterranean region

In July, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal, especially Southeast

In August, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except parts of Northeast
Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal

http://www.wsi.com/5...ase-details.htm

[Milhouse]

It seems that confidence is mounting for a notably different summer to the ones we've been used to.

[ElectricSnowStorm]

Quote

It seems that confidence is mounting for a notably different summer to the ones we've been used to

And because of the significant pattern change we get storms fired from the continent rather then Kent skimmers!
we can't forget the days when thunderstorms used to ride up from the s/se, this summer we may return to those days..

[ElectricSnowStorm]

A connection between snow in the Southeast and lack of continental imported thunderstorms over the last few years, something has changed, a new pattern, and this looks to bring back more of the humid thundery nights this summer that has been unseen in these parts for a long time.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 2 minutes ago.