Coldest May For 100 Years Is On It's Way!

[shedhead]

Not sure whether this should have gone in the Weather in the General Media section, or is deserving of it's own thread, but here goes-:

http://www.huffingto...861.html?ref=uk

For those unable to open the link, here's the main jist....

Wintry weather is set to sweep across Britain in what has been forecast as the coldest May in 100 years.

Weather experts have predicted bitter blasts across the country, with threats of thunderstorms and giant hailstones smashing windows in the

north of Britain.

Temperatures could drop to -2C while the thunderstorms could cause localised flooding. Snow is also expected, says independent forecaster WeatherAction

who said they "made the forecast public because of its importance."

Edited May 13, 2012 by Paul

[Summer Sun]

Rubbish, we only have to read the Netweather forecast for May to see this is just a typical over the top story which the papers print, mainly the Daily Express

Stories in the media this morning are suggesting the UK is heading toward a very cold May, in fact 'The coldest May for 100 years' in parts of the country. (Source - Daily Express). How likely is this though?

In recent times the UK has seen quite a pattern change after the very mild spell in March, with the jetstream running to the south of the British Isles and low pressure in situ across the country. This is leading to often cool and unsettled weather dominating, with the likelihood of very little change during the next week to 10 days at least.

Beyond that and into May, the current expectation is for temperatures to slowly recover more toward average levels, albeit still with unsettled conditions playing a large role. Obviously at this type of range confidence does drop away though, but the majority of indicators we use do not currently point to a very cold May - even if there is the possibility of some cooler periods.

Alongside is the latest temperature map for May from our long range CFS model and as you can see it is forecasting temperatures across much of the UK to be close to or slightly above average.

In summary, whilst longer range forecasting is often fraught with difficulty and always considered lower confidence than shorter range forecasting, we think the likelihood of a significantly colder than average May is very low.

As ever, stay tuned to Netweather for all the latest - including the next update to our long range forecast on the 9th May.

http://www.netweathe...ryid=1075;sess=

Edited April 19, 2012 by Gavin D

[Coast]

Ladies and gents, just a brief reminder that this thread title indicates it's to discuss the potential for a very cold and possibly snowy May.

The last thread on the weather organisation mentioned in the article, ended up being locked as it went round and round in an endless chain of ridicule and insults. To avoid this one descending in the same way and meeting the same fate, please stick to facts, forecasts and figures.

Thanks

[Liam J]

Everyone is entitled to issue their own weather forecast, which one of these proves to be correct - we won't know until the end of May.

Nonetheless I think it would be very exciting to witness the coldest May for 100 years

Edited April 19, 2012 by Liam J

[IanM]

Further to Coast's comment, this is already in the general media discussion thread, so I'm going to merge them before this one takes on a life of its own...

[shedhead]

Looking at the latest outputs the forecast for a cold May is not unsurprising, but as Liam says we need to wait until the end of May to see exactly how it pans out. I'd be surprised if it turns out to be the coldest for 100yrs however, but this combined with the possibility of window smashing hail in the north means it's only right that everyone is aware of the risks, after all Weather Action has "made the forecast public because of its importance."

[IanM]

change of heart, I'll leave this for now as a standalone thread. Please be gentle with it.

[Liam J]

Convection would be in overdrive if we could get very cold uppers combined with strong May sunshine, window smashing hail.... how often has that happened in the UK?

This interests me

TORRO hailstone scale - http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hscale.php Highest recorded in the UK using this scale is H8.

Edited April 19, 2012 by Liam J

[Optimus Prime]

Didn't take the Daily Mail very long to get hold of the news;

http://www.dailymail...ing-summer.html

Forecast for the rest of the year. Miserable May, Baking June, Record hot July, Drought in August, Wet and warm September, Indian summer with no sign of cold, record breaking cold November and a green December.

"

The mercury fell to -7C in Scotland last week and the rest of the country struggled to get above freezing"

Wow The Daily Mail really does have some of the best Journalists in the world. Appears they're not only the most intelligent medical scientists when it comes to predicting cancers from various types of crop but they are also spot on when it comes to the weather a week ago. It was only 7c - 11c above zero last week so certainly close to freezing by any standards.

Edited April 19, 2012 by Optimus Prime

[Weather-history]

Nonetheless I think it would be very exciting to witness the coldest May for 100 years

A lot of us on here already have. May 1996 was the coldest since 1902. It was not a snowfest, it was just persisting nagging winds from the NE and at times cloudy.

[Bottesford]

Yes a cold May is unlikely to turn into December 2010 again! It would probably be as Mr D just described - cloudy with vile cold winds off the North Sea.

Don't know about you, but I fancy turning the heating off and using that money for something more fun than keeping warm!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Convection would be in overdrive if we could get very cold uppers combined with strong May sunshine, window smashing hail.... how often has that happened in the UK?

This interests me

It can happen, but the issue that increasingly arises with northerlies as we head through May and into summer is that the continents warm up much faster than the oceans, so the airmass track over the North Atlantic and/or North Sea tends to stabilise, rather than de-stabilise, the airmass and therefore hinder convective potential. Thus, even if our winds are blowing straight from the Arctic, a northerly or north-easterly regime will often bring only shallow convection. In addition, any kind of continental influence from Scandinavia will often stabilise the airmass further and generate issues with low cloud, especially around the North Sea.

We can certainly get the scenario you describe if we get a north to north-westerly regime with low pressure close by over Scandinavia. In that case, the moisture over the North Atlantic and upper level trough associated with the low pressure, together with strong sunshine, will often translate to vigorous convection and dramatic hailstorms, and if we pull enough cold air down from the Arctic, heavy snowstorms are possible too. The starkest example of this was arguably the northerly outbreak in early May 1979. During the 7th-9th May 2005, a setup like this brought widespread thunder and hail to northern England, although it was not cold enough for snow on low ground. However that setup rarely persists for more than a week, and while many of the coldest Mays do feature this weather type at some stage, a large majority also have some spells with cold grey north-easterlies.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Erm.........do people not just automatically switch off when they see the words "weather action"? I know I do

[shedhead]

RD/ledders69 - This thread is about a warning of the coldest May for 100yrs and the risk of giant hailstones smashing windows in the north, not a 'let's have a go at Corbyn/Weather Action', which is precisely what Coast and Ian are trying to avoid. Let's not lose sight of the fact they "made the forecast public because of its importance" and let's not get this thread taken down because of personal opinions/digs.

Edited April 19, 2012 by shedhead

[SP1986]

I do not see how a forecast for May can be branded of importance, simply because we struggle at most times with long term forecasts. There's nothing important here. Let's just see what happens.

[jtay]

Are we able to establish what might constitute a successful forecast, in order that we avoid heated debates about what constitutes a giant hailstone?

A result based on the following; quoting the weatheraction site would be enough wouldn't it?

'Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%'

Next month will either be one of the above, both or neither.

That way, we all save a lot of typing and agree to reconvene 1st June.

[johnholmes]

Are we able to establish what might constitute a successful forecast, in order that we avoid heated debates about what constitutes a giant hailstone?

A result based on the following; quoting the weatheraction site would be enough wouldn't it?

'Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%'

Next month will either be one of the above, both or neither.

That way, we all save a lot of typing and agree to reconvene 1st June.

seems a reasonable suggestion?

[johnholmes]

I do not see how a forecast for May can be branded of importance, simply because we struggle at most times with long term forecasts. There's nothing important here. Let's just see what happens.

IF it was reliable Stephen then it would be important for many industries who would be able to gear up for the temperature levels - agriculture, retail to name but two-however his track record is not good, probably, if only we could do a proper check, worse than most other outlets for 1 month ahead or a season ahead?

[biddie]

Rubbish, we only have to read the Netweather forecast for May to see this is just a typical over the top story which the papers print, mainly the Daily Express

http://www.netweathe...ryid=1075;sess=

go online there are so many weather companies saying the same thing

[Aaron]

Haha, I hope so.

[Aaron]

Yes a cold May is unlikely to turn into December 2010 again! It would probably be as Mr D just described - cloudy with vile cold winds off the North Sea.

Don't know about you, but I fancy turning the heating off and using that money for something more fun than keeping warm!

Yeah, not sure about you but I use my heating all year, even in July. Last year in July here it got to 6C, the heating calls I think.. lol!

[A Winter's Tale]

The only way we'll know whether this May will be the coldest in 100 years is by seeing how it goes. Personally, such an extreme is unlikely and you can't really tell what the month will be like at this stage so we just need to sit back and see what happens.

Personally, a sunny, showery and cool May would be interesting with some frosts, hail and occasional wintry showers and maybe even some thunder though I'd like a good share of days around 20C.

[Bottesford]

Yeah, not sure about you but I use my heating all year, even in July. Last year in July here it got to 6C, the heating calls I think.. lol!

Eeek that must add up! Here we can loose it once daytime temps go near or above room temperature (21c) and night temps above 10c.

So far only that hasn't happened - only one or the other!

Ugh hope we can get some decent May weather -it can be a lovely month with so much daylight to play with. Just want to be outside lots - after starting to connect with my garden in March it has now resumed its winter role as the passage from the house to the street!

[95 Degrees]

No need to worry guys this May won't be the coldest in 100 years, but not as good as last year.

[Summer Sun]

go online there are so many weather companies saying the same thing

Yes because once one gets the story other companies start saying the same, however the following arn't,

Netweather

In summary, whilst longer range forecasting is often fraught with difficulty and always considered lower confidence than shorter range forecasting, we think the likelihood of a significantly colder than average May is very low.

The Weather Outlook

First half

After a mixed start the first half of the month is expected to bring a good deal of dry and increasingly warm conditions to much of the country. Some less settled interludes are still expected, especially in the north where more it could be cooler and wetter at times.

Second half

The second half of the month should see temperatures continuing above average for much of the time, although it may well turn less settled at times with heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain returning at times

Met Office

Temperatures will generally be close to or slightly above the seasonal average. Conditions may turn more settled across southern England for a time, with a greater chance of some drier and sunnier weather than of late.