What Will Summer Be Like?

[Aaron]

And what would seem unreasonable?

Hmm, dunno, scorching hot summer with temperatures in the mid 30's?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't fancy a summer of northern blocking.

But, to be controversial, nor do I fancy a summer dominated by ridging from the Azores High and westerlies on its northern flank and plenty of so-called "usable" weather (dry, moderately warm and breezy with variable amounts of stratocumulus, and not a shower or thunderstorm in sight).

[Terminal Moraine]

Just taking a look at the analogues and it looks as if the -QBO could peak anytime between now and August at the latest.

AO analogues with a -AO Feb and +AO March...

2007

2004

1994

1986

1985

1994 seems the closest match to both.

That's a mouth watering little selection with 1985, 1986 and 2007 on the list; at least it is for fans of cold, wet summers of which I am (arguably) the forum's greatest afficionado.

On the other hand there are too many variables at work to place much faith in such pattern matching.

[conor123]

Bring on the thunderstorms this year, convective activity has been practically none existant for 3 summers running here.

[Milhouse]

Quite frankly, what we are overdue most is a good spell of high pressure over the UK bringing very warm/hot and sunny conditions nationwide. Either one that lasts at least a week or at least a couple of shorter spells isnt too much to ask for. Such conditions have been very hard to come by over the last 5 summers.

[95 Degrees]

Hmm, dunno, scorching hot summer with temperatures in the mid 30's?

If only, those temperatures would sastify me for the summer!

[SP1986]

I'm just totally negative about this summer; I'm not going start pulling out analogues and other stuff because it isn't going to work. It's worth noting that we don't really know what would happen yet, but if we want a psuedo-sciency perspective; I think it'll be cold and wet, going on nothing but gut instinct and a horrible feeling the Greenland High is going to dominate, but in the wrong places, allowing low pressure to often hang around the UK, and feed cool air from the Arctic.

Obviously it's laughable to make a forecast based on gut instinct, so I would be horrified if anyone took this seriously. My overall point is I do expect a cool summer overall, following on from the last few.

[Aaron]

If only, those temperatures would sastify me for the summer!

I bet! I'd prefer temperatures in the low to mid 20's myself, maybe approaching 30C a few days.. I just want plenty of convection this year..

Edited April 6, 2012 by Aaron

[Thundery wintry showers]

Quite frankly, what we are overdue most is a good spell of high pressure over the UK bringing very warm/hot and sunny conditions nationwide. Either one that lasts at least a week or at least a couple of shorter spells isnt too much to ask for. Such conditions have been very hard to come by over the last 5 summers.

It's surprisingly hard to get a high pressure area to sit in the right position to bring warm/hot and sunny conditions nationwide, but it's true that during the 1990s we got at least a couple of short spells fitting that description in most summers. I remember one per month during the summer quarter of 1996, and two during July 1997, and also two during July 1999. Of course 1995 rather went beyond that, with one such spell in late June, a couple of such spells during July and then a regime setting in for most of the first three weeks of August.

The main problem is that high pressure has to be located in the right place to prevent moisture from coming in from the Atlantic and/or North Sea, which results in cooler cloudier weather, at least for areas near coasts facing the wind (e.g. late June 2009 was warm/hot and sunny for the majority, but easterly winds brought persistent "haar" to eastern Scotland and north-eastern England which penetrated a fair distance inland). The 'ideal' position is thus either on top of the country or somewhere close by in the North Sea, as southerlies tend not to pick up much moisture over the English Channel. For this weather type the best month of the past 5 years was probably June 2010, which both began and ended with this type of weather for most parts of the country.

Regarding heat, I'm much better with heat than I used to be, but if we were talking temperatures in the low to mid 30s I'd probably only welcome short-lived spells with those. I'm fine with prolonged spells with temperatures in the high 20s though, as I found out during July 2006 in Leeds and during late June/early July 2010 in Norwich.

[Alex]

The worry for most people is whether we can break the cycle of a run with only average or poor summers. Most cannot argue that since the great 2006 summer we have had to put up with a washout 2007 & 2008. 2009 although rather criticised in here, it was definitely an improvement on the last two here in Essex with a nationwide decent spell at the end of June into July, as well as a few days at the beginning being good and August being one of the better ones recently and ending relatively dry. 2010 was a bit of everything, June started and ended well but in the middle was rather cool albeit dry, July was very good with it being very dry, very warm and sunny here however many parts of the country would disagree with this summary. August 2010 however was a washout and a contender to 2008 for which was worst! 2011 was a below average summer but not incredibly so, we managed 33c in Gravesend at the end of June after a June which I would describe a writeoff until then. July had some decent days but too often was broken down with cool NE winds pushing in bands of showery rain. August 2011 was drier and had some better days although nothing spectacular. However 2011 didn't seem too bad with a decent spring and that nationwide hot spell in September/October!

The worry for me is the Greenland high being the main player again especially worried now that the Meto have put in their 3month outlook, the dreaded words of "the jetstream being pushed south". I suppose it depends on how far south it gets on whether we get a 2010 style summer or a washout 2007 one. I know which one I'd opt for!

[Scorcher]

I'm not really asking for much this summer- I will take a predominantly settled summer with average temperatures if it means high levels of sunshine. Obviously in an ideal world I would like to see a scorching summer with plenty of temperatures in the 30s, but beggars can't be choosers and I would like to see some prolonged sunny spells in July and August for once. A summer like 2005 would do nicely, although ideally without the cool spells in May and June. This spring appears to be following a different pattern to previous springs so I feel (or perhaps hope) the summer will also follow suit.

[Aaron]

Even though I dislike heat, I would like to see a repeat of August 1990 when a lot of places, especially in northern England and the Midlands, set their record high temperatures

http://www.tutiempo....-1990/33470.htm

We appear to be breaking records/seeing extremes left, right and centre in recent years for almost anything - cold, snow, wind, rain, mildness, lack of snow, plenty of snow.. but not heat.

Edited April 7, 2012 by Aaron

[Alex]

Even though I dislike heat, I would like to see a repeat of August 1990 when a lot of places, especially in northern England and the Midlands, set their record high temperatures

http://www.tutiempo....-1990/33470.htm

We appear to be breaking records/seeing extremes left, right and centre in recent years for almost anything - cold, snow, wind, rain, mildness, lack of snow, plenty of snow.. but not heat.

I disagree, we have been breaking temperatures on the warm side for the last two years alot. Some examples include April & October last year, March this year. Ok no summer records being broken but 29c in October isn't atall bad! Last June saw 33c although not record breaking - a more prolonged spell could of brought higher temps.

[Scorcher]

I disagree, we have been breaking temperatures on the warm side for the last two years alot. Some examples include April & October last year, March this year. Ok no summer records being broken but 29c in October isn't atall bad! Last June saw 33c although not record breaking - a more prolonged spell could of brought higher temps.

We also had some record breaking March warmth less than 2 weeks ago! Also how many cold records have actually been broken? Apart from the period of mid-November to December 2010 there hasn't been a lot else. There certainly haven't been many all-time record lows.

[Aaron]

Maybe I should rephrase what I said.. I mean we have not broken any records for summer heat.. you know, proper heat. Everyone has been banging on about the lack of summer in recent years.

And Scorcher, that's exactly what I am referring to. November and December 2010 were more then enough in terms of record breaking cold.. in some places it was the coldest month on record.. I think it's a lot harder to get a record breaking cold month then a record breaking mild month such as March 2012.. March 2012 was super sunny but it won't stick around in my memory for very long, unlike July 2006, which I remember vividly for the very hot temperatures and abundant sunshine..

Edited April 7, 2012 by Aaron

[Scorcher]

And Scorcher, that's exactly what I am referring to. November and December 2010 were more then enough in terms of record breaking cold.. in some places it was the coldest month on record.. I think it's a lot harder to get a record breaking cold month then a record breaking mild month such as March 2012.. March 2012 was super sunny but it won't stick around in my memory for very long, unlike July 2006, which I remember vividly for the very hot temperatures and abundant sunshine..

I take your point that we have been lacking heat in mid summer. Up until 2009 this was also the case for cold in mid winter, but then it finally came. It did seem to be normal service resumed this winter though. I'm hoping that we will finally hit the jackpot in summer this year with the right synoptics occurring at the right time.

[MP-R]

Maybe I should rephrase what I said.. I mean we have not broken any records for summer heat.. you know, proper heat. Everyone has been banging on about the lack of summer in recent years.

And Scorcher, that's exactly what I am referring to. November and December 2010 were more then enough in terms of record breaking cold.. in some places it was the coldest month on record.. I think it's a lot harder to get a record breaking cold month then a record breaking mild month such as March 2012.. March 2012 was super sunny but it won't stick around in my memory for very long, unlike July 2006, which I remember vividly for the very hot temperatures and abundant sunshine..

Agreed. It's also worth pointing out that not everyone had a sunny March. It certainly wasn't a sunny month here in Bristol properly until the 21st. The 'sunny spell' of the month was 23rd-29th. While many eastern areas enjoyed sunshine during the first half of the month with temperatures in the 14-18C area, many areas in the west remained cloudy and not getting much about 6-9C.

I would settle for a summer like 2005 which had an equal share of cool, hot, wet and thunder throughout each month (just not that last week of July which was depressing!)

[reef]

Agreed. It's also worth pointing out that not everyone had a sunny March. It certainly wasn't a sunny month here in Bristol properly until the 21st. The 'sunny spell' of the month was 23rd-29th. While many eastern areas enjoyed sunshine during the first half of the month with temperatures in the 14-18C area, many areas in the west remained cloudy and not getting much about 6-9C.

I would settle for a summer like 2005 which had an equal share of cool, hot, wet and thunder throughout each month (just not that last week of July which was depressing!)

The statistics would disagree with you about March.

The Metoffice suggests sunshine levels were >170% in your area in March and mean maximum temperatures were >3.5C above average. Rainfall was not far above 50% either.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/3/2012_3_Sunshine_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/3/2012_3_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/3/2012_3_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

How that qualifies as anything less than a warm, dry, sunny March Ill never know. Chances are if you dont remember this March just gone for its warm, dry and sunny weather you'll probably never remember one.

[Aaron]

You're right reef. I don't really remember months like March for being very mild.. they just don't interest me. I only remember months for being very cold or very warm, like December 2010, July 2006, February 1991 and August 1990.. to be honest, I barely remember months like January 2008 for being very mild.. I remember it for being wet with floods, and even remember the snwofall I had that month, but don't remember the mildness. I guess I just dislike very mild months in winter and early spring when I am still in a snowy mood.

Edited April 7, 2012 by Aaron

[MP-R]

The statistics would disagree with you about March.

The Metoffice suggests sunshine levels were >170% in your area in March and mean maximum temperatures were >3.5C above average. Rainfall was not far above 50% either.

http://www.metoffice...y_1971-2000.gif

http://www.metoffice...y_1971-2000.gif

http://www.metoffice...y_1971-2000.gif

How that qualifies as anything less than a warm, dry, sunny March Ill never know. Chances are if you dont remember this March just gone for its warm, dry and sunny weather you'll probably never remember one.

If only. Fortunately I was in Egham where it certainly was sunny a lot of the time, but Bristol was not quite the same. The 1st-3rd was often sunny as was the 5th-7th. Then sunshine became rarer for more than a few hours at a time until the 19th. The 12th-15th saw no sunshine at all in Yatton. The 20th-22nd were characterised by dull mornings followed by bright hazy afternoon. Then the 23rd onwards saw virtually unbroken sunshine until the 30th.

Like I said, not a memorably sunny month in Bristol by any means. 2003 was sunnier.

[laserguy]

I think it'll be cold and wet, going on nothing but gut instinct and a horrible feeling the Greenland High is going to dominate, but in the wrong places, allowing low pressure to often hang around the UK, and feed cool air from the Arctic.

Ah, I live in hope. With any luck and a prevailing wind (!) the "best" summer weather we'll have has already been and gone - in March. Roll on October.

[Lauren]

I actually had a pretty good summer last year, although I know a lot didn't. It was pretty sunny and warm for most of the summer apart from a few weeks. I think because over the summer I wasn't working for a bit I noticed the sun more. When you work you don't realise what it's like outside so much, well I don't anyway.

Far too little storms for my liking.

If I had it my way we'd have a long hot summer with some good storms (the old overnighters of old, amongst others) so that we could have BBQ's galore and get tanned, but the storms would deliver enough rain that we wouldn't have a shortage.

[DTHFCJ]

after a run of poor summers my gut tells me..so nothing scientific,this summer will be..cracker

Edited April 7, 2012 by BALE1

[syed2878]

man i hope we don't get a summer like 07 i know we need the rain but not like 07 in sted i hope we get the rain like 07 next dec, jan, and feb in the form of snow. Now that would make most of us in here happy bunnies im sure.

[summer blizzard]

MEI Feb/March analogues...

1960

1961

1962

1963

1968

1972

1976

1989

1996

1997

1999

2000

2001

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

Bar 1976 and 1989 they certainly do not inspire me with confidence.

There were no good MEI/AO analoges however there were two good MEI/QBO analogues in the form of 2001 and 1996.