What Will Summer Be Like?

[leicsnow]

2009 was pretty good in the southeast but nowhere else. 2004 was wet but warm. 2005 not too bad.

2008 was relatively wet and warm too - particularly at night and towards the end.

[A Winter's Tale]

This summer I'd like to see a sunny, warm but changeable start with a couple of nice days then a rainfall. From mid/late June onwards I'd love to see a repeat of 2006, record breaking hot temps with a breeze but no humidity, each day being different in nature (i.e haze, cirrus clouds) and some cool, misty nights - only some night-time rain every once in a while. August, I'd like to see weekly periods of warmth and sunshine broken up by cooler and wetter periods. A sunny, but changeable end and a tad cool at times would be nice.

My thoughts on this summer are yet to be decided so It won't be until May that we'll start to have a clue about how it starts. It all depends on where the high pressure systems set up between now and June. If northern blocking at all appears then we could be in for a disapointing summer. Personally, I believe that we're going to see a better summer than last year but there will be poor periods. However I don't expect any repeat of 2006 but there will be enough sustained, sunny and warm periods to keep us happy - so we're going to see a lot more in the way of warmth and sunshine than last year overall.

[Wynn D Woo]

I cant say for sure how summer will pan out yet, far too early to make anything but broad brush statements, however I can guarantee that the annual weeks camping trip we do will be mostly wet and windy - as has happened each of the last 4 years we have gone .

So anyone in the drought zone wish to pay our camping and petrol fees in return for bringing copious amounts of rain with us? :wacko:

[leicsnow]

At the moment I'm expecting an average or slightly above average summer, the best overall since 2006, but probably no lengthy exceptional hot spells. However, this is just based on gut feeling and the current background signals.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Tellow

[Summer Sun]

Interesting post in the model output thread tonight

[UV-RAY]

I've a feeling that we will see a rather mixed bag this Summer, with heights to our NW preventing much in the way of prolonged heat.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[J10]

For Wales Summer 2011 was sunnier and drier than average, but cooler than average, Another summer with June being the best month, and July was not as bad as some recent ones.

[Summer Sun]

The first paper to cover summer is...........................The Daily Express

However, as Britain shivers in the second big freeze of the year, long-range forecasters say London is set for a scorching summer. The mercury could soar to more than 86F in time for the Olympics, according to royal weatherman David King. Mr King, who was called on by the Royal Family to help plan Prince William’s wedding to Kate Middleton last year, said: “The second week of the Olympics in particular will be a scorcher.†And although this will be welcomed by holidaymakers, Mr King warned: “By the end of the summer we’re going to have a serious drought. If you think we’ve got a drought now, wait until the end of July. Once we have got rid of Wimbledon – which will be rainy as usual – we are going to have a walloping July.â€

http://www.express.c...t-and-very-cold

[Polar Maritime]

The first paper to cover summer is...........................The Daily Express

worrying times.

[Radiating Dendrite]

The first paper to cover summer is...........................The Daily Express

I see they have managed to find another PWS clone!

Then again, 86f would have been very conservative for them. PWS would probably have gone for 120f, with athletes collapsing due to extreme heat exhaustion!

[Aaron]

Well that's summer ruined then.. they jinxed winter too.

[Robbie Garrett]

Well actually, looking at the long range CFS forecasts etc I made a Summer forecast based upon that, if that's what they are using which I highly doubt. July is to be the wettest. Temperatures from April till at least August look set to be below average, a few forecasters including the metoffice are aware of that.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2287295

JULY - Summary - No sign of Summer, as the north Atlantic remains dominant for weeks on end. Temperatures tend to be kept at bay, with no sign of any settled conditions allowing the Summer Sunshine to raise temperatures.

August looks a lot better,...

AUGUST - Summary - Summer Sun, the one to watch this year, could turn out to be a record breaker. The month would contain some very severe Thunderstorms due to the heat and the strength of the North Atlantic.

Edited April 4, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Weather-history]

Long time since we've had a hot summer so perhaps this year.

2006?

Not that long ago, we've had two hot summers (2003, 2006) within the last decade.

[Weather-history]

2008 was relatively wet and warm too - particularly at night and towards the end.

It was also exceptionally dull, a dire summer month.

[Milhouse]

It was also exceptionally dull, a dire summer month.

If i recall right, August 2008 had very little appreciable warmth at all with temperatures always stuck around average/slightly below average values. The warmest, most settled spell came right at the end but temperatures barely broke 25c and it was mostly cloudy throughout. A very forgettable summer month.

Even an average Summer would be welcomed by me. One which has July/August with CETs in the high 16s and a couple of notable heatwaves interspersed with short cool and unsettled periods. A repeat of 1996 would be nice but i would rather have a repeat of 1995.

Edit: actually make that 2003/2006. Looking at the BBC forecasts of 1995 it makes me realize what an infuriating month it must have been to live on the east coast with frequent northeasterlies and low cloud.

Edited April 4, 2012 by Milhouse

[reef]

If i recall right, August 2008 had very little appreciable warmth at all with temperatures always stuck around average/slightly below average values. The warmest, most settled spell came right at the end but temperatures barely broke 25c and it was mostly cloudy throughout. A very forgettable summer month.

Even an average Summer would be welcomed by me. One which has July/August with CETs in the high 16s and a couple of notable heatwaves interspersed with short cool and unsettled periods. A repeat of 1996 would be nice but i would rather have a repeat of 1995.

Edit: actually make that 2003/2006. Looking at the BBC forecasts of 1995 it makes me realize what an infuriating month it must have been to live on the east coast with frequent northeasterlies and low cloud.

2010 and 2011 were both pretty average/better than average summers in our location though. My stats for both:

2010: 16.5C (+0.6C), 104.8mm (65%), 573hrs (104%)

2011: 15.6C (-0.3C), 134.6mm (77%), 552hrs (100%)

1995 had the same mean temp as 2010 and only 30mm less rainfall. The only difference was it was rather sunny. June was pretty poor so the good weather was condensed into two months (like 2006).

I think quite a lot of people consider 'good' summers as average and exceptional ones as 'good'. Those in the west would probably have a more realistic view.

[Milhouse]

2010 was a satisfactory summer here i agree. I'm a bit suprised to see last Summer came in only 0.3c below average considering July was plagued by cloudy northerlies for much of the 2nd half. I thought it was much cooler than that. I guess it was the pleasant August which helped to raise the overall mean nearer average.

Last July saw quite a lot of high pressure close to the UK but frequently in the wrong place to be of any benefit. If HP had situated itself differently it would have lead to a considerably better July.

I just hope this summer doesnt see another Russian Heatwave which, as the second half of Summer 2010 showed, seriously scuppers our chances of anything settled and warm. Last Summer saw a hot spell over Russia but nowhere as prolonged as 2010. It still suceeded in trapping low pressure over the north sea delivering those cool northerlies.

[summer blizzard]

Just taking a look at the analogues and it looks as if the -QBO could peak anytime between now and August at the latest.

QBO analogues with a strengthening -QBO during Feb-March..

2010

2003

2001

1998

1996

1994

1992

1987

1984

1982

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

AO analogues with a -AO Feb and +AO March...

2007

2004

1994

1986

1985

1994 seems the closest match to both.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, while the Augusts of 2004 and 2008 were both warm and wet they were vastly different in terms of the weather we got. Much of August 2004's rain came from thunderstorms and convective activity, with sunshine totals close to or slightly below normal and the positive temperature anomaly was similar by day and night- the exceptions being some North Sea areas which had suppressed maxima and a significant shortage of sunshine due to frequent "haar" in the first half.

August 2008 on the other hand was widely the dullest since 1912. We had frequent Atlantic frontal systems during the first two-thirds bringing extensive cloud cover and lots of rain, and then when the much sought-after warm settled spell arrived in the last week, it was exceptionally gloomy with a moist tropical maritime airmass and thick stratocumulus. The month's warmth was entirely due to warm nights, with daytime maxima below average in most regions.

Re. August 1995, easterly winds did bring cooler weather to most areas close to the North Sea during the first third of the month, but I recall that the sea breezes during the 11th-22nd tended to mainly affect the coastal fringes. Hence places like Tynemouth and Whitby had a mean maximum just short of 20C, but just a couple of miles further inland it averaged nearer 22C, assisted by a very hot third week. Low cloud was relatively rare even along the coastal fringes though, e.g. Tynemouth had 267 hours of sunshine.

What would I fancy this summer? Well, as per usual, I'll be hoping for a "continental" style summer with plenty of sunshine but also plenty of showers and thunderstorms- the three main setups for this being southerly incursions, clear anticyclones and polar maritime incursions associated with slack lows and slow-moving thundery showers. (From this perspective the 1994 anologue sounds quite promising, as that summer was particularly notable for its thundery southerly incursions). Admittedly such a summer wouldn't be as good for the drought situation as a summer with frequent Atlantic frontal systems, but it would still be better from that perspective than a consistently dry settled summer.

[Alex]

I would not want another 2007 style summer ever! At least 2008 isn't on the list.

2010 was good for the southeast but I think we were lucky in June/July considering the teleconnections at the time.

What were the analogues last year and 2010 looking like at this point, interested to see how likely these impacts are at this early stage?

[Aaron]

August 2008 was odd. It never exceeded 25C, at Leeds Bradford airport it did not exceed 21C..

[syed2878]

Summer 1990 1995 is a repeat something i would like to see.

[syed2878]

i just hope we don't see the northern blocking till the winter months.

[CroatianWeather]

In my opinion, you, in UK should prepare for stormy, wet May with average temperatures. June could also be quite unsettled for you, but then I can see reverse of pattern.

July and August will possibly be better, warmer and drier but nothing exceptionally. Don't see long heatwaves, just average to above average temperatures and, again, lack of rain.

But, I think, rains during rest of April, May and June will break drought which lasts for over 16 months.

[Aaron]

In my opinion, you, in UK should prepare for stormy, wet May with average temperatures. June could also be quite unsettled for you, but then I can see reverse of pattern.

July and August will possibly be better, warmer and drier but nothing exceptionally. Don't see long heatwaves, just average to above average temperatures and, again, lack of rain.

But, I think, rains during rest of April, May and June will break drought which lasts for over 16 months.

Seems reasonable to me