What Will Summer Be Like?

[Neil B]

I hope that this summer will be a hot one but at the moment i have not got a clue which april has started okay today but will soon be crap, i want this year to be a great for t storms and funnels, has any got any info on what this summer will be like?.

[Summer Sun]

Well lets look back at 2011

March 2011 - was a mixed month IIRC some warmth but nothing like this year

April 2011 - A very warm month at times with temperatures into the 20s very little rain

May 2011 - Was another very warm and dry month again with temperatures well into the 20s

All that lead to what seemed a flick of a switch come June giving the UK an awfull summer for many it was cloudy, cool at times and very wet away from the midlands and south east which is now of course in drought, whilst in the North east 253mm of rain fell from June to August.

Now what we can hope for this year is an unsettled spell in spring will give us a better chance of seeing a hot summer

[Neil B]

well lets hope for a hot summer, the enviroment agency has a update on the droughts and come the 4th of april there will be a hosepipe ban for the SE - E england by thames water.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/drought/31749.aspx

http://www.thameswater.co.uk/cps/rde/xchg/corp/hs.xsl/15371.htm

[95 Degrees]

Average/Slightly Above with a similar summer to 2009 I think, June the warmest month and August warmish and better than last year.

[The PIT]

Long time since we've had a hot summer so perhaps this year.

[sundog]

A total guess but id say a better summer then last year for starters,a summer maybe like 2010,a pretty good first half,not so good second half.

[Aaron]

I just hope this summer is pleasantly warm with temperatures between 21C and 25C with sunny skies and light winds, with thunderstorms of course.

[Coast]

The warmest of the four temperate seasons between spring and autumn, it'l start on June 1st (according to the MetO) and also cover July and August.......

[Thundery wintry showers]

Most of us were disappointed by Summer 2011 but I think Gavin D's account of it is somewhat exaggerated. Perceptions of a summer tend to be biased towards the end, rather than beginning, of the season, so it's easy to remember that cloudy wet August and forget that, for most of us, sunshine and rainfall totals were actually close to normal during June and July. I certainly wouldn't place that summer in the same class as, say, 2008.

However there is always regional variation to take into account and last year's summer was certainly bleak around Aberdeen, and for the thunderstorm/convection lovers the summer was also disappointing on that front except in parts of north-east England (where late June and early July produced frequent thunderstorms).

Regarding summer thunderstorms, heat and thunderstorms can be positively related but it depends on the synoptic setup. Many hot dry sunny months dominated by high pressure are actually remarkably thunder-free- the sort of setup that gives hot thundery months has frequent southerly winds, high pressure over Europe and an Atlantic trough. Other thundery months, like the Augusts of 1999 and 2004, feature predominantly low pressure, but crucial in both cases is a relatively weak jet such that we don't get Atlantic fronts rushing through at regular intervals as happened frequently during last year's summer.

[Aaron]

Don't know what summer's going to be like but I'm hoping it's going to be a largely hot and humid one, with thunderstorms aplenty.

Forget pleasantness, I want the weather this summer to be exciting. Though I appreciate that exciting weather is not everyone's cup of tea.

I want a lot of thunderstorms too, but hate hate hate the heat and the humidity..

[Methuselah]

Like nearly everyone else, I'm hoping for heat and thunderstorms. Will I get rewarded? How would I know!

[Aaron]

Yes, and a lot of people do like snow but despise the cold.

[Bottesford]

Of course no one knows just yet... We haven't had a good August in many years now so perhaps we'll see a decent one this year.

Personally I like my prime good weather around the solstice (May to July) and by good I mean ample sunshine and at least feeling warm most of the time. Doesn't need to be 30c+ (although I do like that) but does need to be sunny with maxes above 20c on most days. A complete lack of cool, cloudy days and Atlantic fronts would be an absolute requirement.

I like storms too but they need to be timed well so I can enjoy them from indoors and not when I've planned a bbq, are trudging around town shopping or cycling home from work!

[Alex]

With the ENSO heading into a neutral state and if angular momentum stays high then I don't see why we can't have a decent summer. My money though is on a 2005 type summer at best and a 2009 type summer at worst.

[Milhouse]

It would be a good idea to cement this at the top of the forum and rename it Summer 2012. Its April now so only 2 months to go now till June. Time for a dedicated thread for the upcoming Summer.

[conor123]

Last Summer was exceptionally dreary here, the sunshine totals were only close to normal because of the Telford curse e.g slate grey skies 9am - 6pm with any sunshine reserved for early morning or after 6pm.

I remember the grey weather began on 5th May and lasted till the September heatwave, Summer 2010 was similar but we at least had a decent June here.

Other than the greyness/blandness though the main issue with summers here in recent years has been lack of convective activity, I don't class 2007 or 2008 as bad summers for here as both gave some spectacular thunderstorms.

[Aaron]

Yeah, both 2007 and 2008 had some great thunderstorms, and the rain at times was phenomenally heavy, over 80mm in one day is something I won't forget in a hurry.

[damianslaw]

_{Hoping for a decent summer - but the past 5 overall have been largely dissapointing, some more so than others, 2007, 2008 were terrible, 2010 wasn't too bad although rather cool.}

Haven't a clue about this summer, will be interesting to see how strong the azores high is by late May/early June, if it maintains the strength it has had since september then the chances of a decent summer will be increased markedly, but if we see a return of northern blocking and the troublesome trough as we have seen the past 5 summers then it will be probably game over again.. We are long overdue a return to wet conditions, lets hope these wait until Autumn - its about time we had a decent summer followed by a proper wet stormy autumn.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Bit like saying "I want a lot of snow too, but I hate hate hate cold weather"... y'know heheh. Granted, you don't exactly need stifling heat and humidity to get thunderstorms, but you can be sure that thunderstorms that develop under such conditions will be beasts.

But it's not just that, really. I love the smell of the air after a torrential thunderstorm has passed on a very humid day too... nothing like it. Difficult to describe "that smell" lol.

I can think of one setup conducive to major thunderstorms that doesn't require heat/humidity- slack slow-moving lows associated with upper cold pools in polar maritime or returning polar maritime airstreams. 21st August 2000 and 15th June 2009 both had widespread severe thunderstorms from that setup. Late June/early July 2007, and also early July 2009, had widespread thunder activity as a result of slow-moving lows.

But for a combination of heat and thunderstorms you can't go far wrong with the setup that characterised 24th June-4th August 1994, with frequent southerly winds and Atlantic systems struggling to make inroads against high pressure over central Europe and Scandinavia.

[Aaron]

One of the best storms here for the 21st century occurred on the 15th of June 2009.. boy, that was a great storm, over 20mm of rainfall in, oh, 25 - 30 minutes, temperature fell from 23c down to 12c.. all sorts of lightning, very frequent.. though to be fair this was on the beck edge of a warm - hot spell of weather, though that day itself was not very warm.

I'm not comfortable in hot and humid weather though I do like the novelty of it, and would definitely take a hot and humid summer of it means we get lots of thunderstorms as a result.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Aaron

[Robbie Garrett]

April 2011 Lovely, September/October = Lovely, March 2012 = Lovely, so odds are on for August to be a banger, but expect a very very wet next 2-3 months before we get their...

June 2012 -

July 2012 -

August 2012 -

Edited April 1, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[summer blizzard]

Would prefer a hot and sunny summer despite not being a fan of heat.

In regards to what i think will happen..

Final warming occurs this month which coupled with -QBO indicates a pretty cool and wet May and probably June unless -QBO peaked this month.

June and July look at the moment to feature a weakening La Nina/neutral ENSO conditions combined with a weakening -QBO. This should i think provide scope for a warmer and drier than average second half to summer.

The caveat here is that La Nina does not begin to redevelop otherwise we could see August go down the pan.

[Aaron]

When was the last decent August? Even August 2006 was not very warm. In fact it was rather cool.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Aaron

[Robbie Garrett]

When was the last decent August? Even August 2006 was not very warm. In fact it was rather cool.

You'd have to really go back to 2003.

[Alex]

When was the last decent August? Even August 2006 was not very warm. In fact it was rather cool.

2009 was pretty good in the southeast but nowhere else. 2004 was wet but warm. 2005 not too bad.