10 replies to this topic

[Gavin D]

I have been taking a look at the SST's and they are showing signs of us breaking out of the LA Nina patter and entering an EL Nino phase,







If we do get an EL Nino summer what would it mean for us? Do it increase the chances of getting a proper summer with some proper heat or more of the same cloudy and wet.?

Edited by Gavin D, 21 February 2012 - 17:25 .

[Ben_Cambs]

I would of thought some sort of lag effect takes place when there is a transition between La Nina/Neutral/El Nino, so I doubt a change to an El Nino phase would have much affect on this summer. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong though!

[Alza]

Summers which have the closest analogue to what you're suggesting (La Nina changing to El Nino) include 1951, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1986, 1997

Dark red = 1976
Red = Good summer
Orange = Average summer (Probably considered disappointing by most on here )
Green = Poor summer

Some, such as 1997, were a mixture so it is hard to categorize. 1997 had an awful June, but a pretty warm July and August I think. It seems like if an El Nino does develop it is slightly more likely that we'll see a good summer, but only a 2/3 chance approximately.

1976 is a very good analogue in terms of ENSO alone as it went positive in June/July, but so is 1951 and 1986.

Edited by Alza 2, 21 February 2012 - 17:42 .

[sundog]

I thought that neutral conditions were the most likely this summer after the demise of La Nina during the spring with El Nino being less likely this year.

[Backtrack]

Well there is a trend for neutral/weak La Nina this year, but it's occurring in late July, so some sort of lag effect will most likely take place, not an immediate switch.
Another record breaking autumn perhaps?

[Alza]

Looking at ENSO alone, 1986 is the closest analogue as it gradually went +ve, not doing so until late July / August, but 1976 is the second closest. Obviously this is one small factor to consider though. I'd happily take 1986 mind compared with the last few.

FWIW, Jan/Feb 1976 don't look totally dissimilar to Jan/Feb 2012. Jan was zonal, with a Russian High later in Jan / early Feb, then a Bartlett later in Feb, and the Azores High this year is tending to move into Europe atm, so verging on a Bartlett.

Edited by Alza 2, 21 February 2012 - 18:49 .

[Mr_Data]

Alza 2, on 21 February 2012 - 17:39 , said:

Summers which have the closest analogue to what you're suggesting (La Nina changing to El Nino) include 1951, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1986, 1997

It has to be said there is only true good summer in that list and that is 1976, 1997 was mixed but the others were less than brilliant.

One notable feature with the exception of 1976 and 1997, the rest all contained one notably cool summer month

August 1951, August 1963, July 1965 (joint 11th coolest July on record), July 1968, June 1972 (joint 2nd coolest June on record), August 1986 (joint 16th coolest August)

And contained one particularly wet month with the exception of 1976.

Edited by Mr_Data, 21 February 2012 - 19:28 .

[cheeky_monkey]

I dont remember 1986 being up to much as far as the summer went..it fell in those dross summers from 1985-88..which i remember as being cool and wet.

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

I don't know about summer and El Nino. It's nature will be different each time so we just need to see how it pans out but hopefully it would mean a good summer. Lag effect may be a factor but let's hope that won't matter anyway.

I seem to remember that winter 2009/2010 was a El Nino year? So is it likely that we'll have El Nino for Winter and is it good for cold winters?

[Aaron]

I think it's too late for El Nino to have any real impact on summer if it develops

[summer blizzard]

Statistically it would be a positive providing that the -QBO is weakening although i suspect that the current forecasts would be too little, too late given the atmospheric lag.